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@Votante: Since in the vast majority of statewide polls, Labor’s primary vote is ahead of or at least tied with that of the Coalition or One Nation’s, I don’t think it’s likely for Pakenham to become a ONP vs LIB contest. If Labor starts to poll third on primary votes behind One Nation and the Coalition more often, then Labor would be at serious risk of finishing third in many of its own seats (including Pakenham), especially in outer suburban and regional areas.