ALP 0.4%
Incumbent MP
Emma Vulin, since 2022.
Geography
Pakenham covers western parts of the Cardinia council area, including Pakenham and Officer.
History
The current seat of Pakenham was created at the 2022 election, taking in parts of the former seat of Gembrook. The electoral district of Pakenham previously existed from 1992 until 2002, during which time it was held by Liberal MP Rob Maclellan. Maclellan retired in 2002, when Pakenham was abolished.
The seats of Bass and Gembrook were created in 2002.
Bass was held by the Liberal Party’s Ken Smith from 2002 until 2014. Smith served as Speaker from 2010 until 2014, when he retired.
Bass was won in 2014 by Liberal candidate Brian Paynter. Paynter lost after one term in 2018 to Labor candidate Jordan Crugnale. Crugnale still holds the seat of Bass.
Labor’s Tammy Lobato won Gembrook in 2002, and held the seat until 2010.
Lobato lost Gembrook to Liberal candidate Brad Battin in 2010, and he was re-elected twice. Battin switched to the new seat of Berwick in 2022, and was elected Liberal leader in 2024.
Labor candidate Emma Vulin narrowly won Pakenham in 2022.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Emma Vulin is not running for re-election.
- Radmila Dyson (Liberal)
- Raymond French (Independent)
- Stephanie Grigg (Victorian Socialists)
- Warren Pickering (One Nation)
- Alessandra Soliven (Labor)
- Nasser Yawari (Greens)
Assessment
This seat is extremely marginal and Labor would be doing very well if they were to hold on. One Nation would have ambitions to do well in this outer suburban electorate.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Emma Vulin | Labor | 13,151 | 33.8 | -11.5 |
| David Farrelly | Liberal | 12,605 | 32.4 | -9.8 |
| Brett Owen | Independent | 3,157 | 8.1 | +8.1 |
| Michelle Maibaum | Greens | 2,571 | 6.6 | -0.8 |
| Elissa Smith | Legalise Cannabis | 2,010 | 5.2 | +5.2 |
| Angela Siladji | One Nation | 1,321 | 3.4 | +3.4 |
| Christopher Gore | Family First | 1,218 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Hannah Pledger-Firth | Animal Justice | 978 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Sammi Clarke | Freedom Party | 956 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Sarasadat Sarkeshik | Democratic Labour | 666 | 1.7 | +0.1 |
| Rajvir Singh Sagoo | Independent | 234 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 3,089 | 7.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Emma Vulin | Labor | 19,587 | 50.4 | -1.8 |
| David Farrelly | Liberal | 19,280 | 49.6 | +1.8 |
Booths have been divided into three areas. The populated centre of the seat has been split between Lakeside and Pakenham, while the spare northern booths have been grouped.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in both Pakenham and Lakeside, while the Liberal Party won 51.4% in the north. The Liberals also won 52.2% of the pre-poll vote.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pakenham | 52.5 | 5,898 | 15.1 |
| Lakeside | 55.7 | 5,797 | 14.8 |
| North | 38.6 | 933 | 2.4 |
| Pre-poll | 47.8 | 20,854 | 53.4 |
| Other votes | 51.0 | 5,585 | 14.3 |
Election results in Pakenham at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
@Votante: Since in the vast majority of statewide polls, Labor’s primary vote is ahead of or at least tied with that of the Coalition or One Nation’s, I don’t think it’s likely for Pakenham to become a ONP vs LIB contest. If Labor starts to poll third on primary votes behind One Nation and the Coalition more often, then Labor would be at serious risk of finishing third in many of its own seats (including Pakenham), especially in outer suburban and regional areas.
In a lot of these seats if Labor poll third on the primaries , there will probably be enough Greens and VS preferences to get them up into second place. That is of course unless the Labor totally collapses into the teens.
In what are currently uber safe Nationals seats, Labor will poll third and stay there. Labor and Greens preferences might save the Nats bacon in a few seats and get them over the line.
While i clearly expect Labor to loose the seat, i dont think Labor will do so bad that it will drop out of the 2CP. I feel along with the Sandbelt, Labor is probbaly doing much better in the Outer South East (Pakenham/Cranbourne) corridor than other areas of the state. At the Federal Level this corridor had the greatest swings to Labor (Hotham, Bruce, Holt and La Trobe). I feel Labor will get 27% of the Primary vote Greens at 6% with about 4% for other left parties (Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice) that should be enough to ensure Labor stays in the 2CP. The urbanisation and ethnic diversification of this seat with the new housing estates is probably giving Labor a stronger floor even if this is a Liberal leaning seat compared to the state as a whole.
“Pakenham, Point Cook, Frankston, Narre Warren North, Cranbourne, St Albans, Clarinda, Albert Park and Wendouree are all winnable (more or less) seats with no candidates”
The first five of these are definitely winnable so not having a candidate at this stage is not a good look. Last time, as I recall there were a lot of issues with the Liberal candidate in Narre Warren North. Is there some sort of factional issue in that part of Outer Melbourne? Pakenham, Frankston and possibly Cranbourne could be ON chances. Albert Park could be a possible Greens pick up if the Labor vote tanks, and Wendouree could be a ON chance if the Libs come third, but probably not a Liberal win.
Re: Bendigo West I have heard the Libs are stepping aside to let the Nats contest alone in the hope Lethlean’s popularity spills over to the metro Bendigo booths there