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This seat got a lot of talk and barely moved however, Cranbourne has a history of swinging so if the Liberal were to have a good night they could peal this seat off.
Labor got a big swing at the Federal election here. I dont think there is the same Level of Anger in South East Red Wall (Narre Warrens, Cranbourne). Service delivery better managed. Metro Tunnel/Removal all level crossings will help here. Howeve, Clyde rail is an outstanding issue
It’s another seat though that at the federal election swung pretty hard to Labor.
While the Victorian Labor will not do anywhere near as well as Federal Labor, I still feel like areas that had an above-average swing towards Labor in May are probably not going to be the ones that have the largest swings away from them in 2026.
A lot of areas in the north/west barely swung in May, or some even had small swings against the grain to the Liberals, and those sorts of areas are where I would expect a significant swing to the Liberals next year.
But if an area swung +5 to Labor in May, I don’t expect that it’ll be swinging to the tune of -10 from them next year, that’d be a 15 point difference between federal & state.
Labor has invested a lot into the outer southeast (compared to the north & west) so I think they will hold up ok. I predict small to moderate swings to the Liberals across the Narre Warrens & Cranbourne.