Cranbourne – Victoria 2026

This seat got a lot of talk and barely moved however, Cranbourne has a history of swinging so if the Liberal were to have a good night they could peal this seat off.

Labor got a big swing at the Federal election here. I dont think there is the same Level of Anger in South East Red Wall (Narre Warrens, Cranbourne). Service delivery better managed. Metro Tunnel/Removal all level crossings will help here. Howeve, Clyde rail is an outstanding issue

It’s another seat though that at the federal election swung pretty hard to Labor.

While the Victorian Labor will not do anywhere near as well as Federal Labor, I still feel like areas that had an above-average swing towards Labor in May are probably not going to be the ones that have the largest swings away from them in 2026.

A lot of areas in the north/west barely swung in May, or some even had small swings against the grain to the Liberals, and those sorts of areas are where I would expect a significant swing to the Liberals next year.

But if an area swung +5 to Labor in May, I don’t expect that it’ll be swinging to the tune of -10 from them next year, that’d be a 15 point difference between federal & state.

Labor has invested a lot into the outer southeast (compared to the north & west) so I think they will hold up ok. I predict small to moderate swings to the Liberals across the Narre Warrens & Cranbourne.

Kos Samaras named this seat at risk for a potential One Nation gain, I would add both of the Narre Warrens as well.

@SpaceFish, I heard Kos say that as well. He also named Carrum and Frankston as at risk to One Nation.

It is not that CALD in the south – Cranbourne South, Botanic Ridge, Junction Village. These suburbs will see huge swings to One Nation.

@ Votante
I have pointed this out before. I agree that Cranbourne is an area that will be good for ONP among white voters. However, Cranbourne is much more CALD than average and the Narre Warren seats. People often dont realise this but the City of Casey is more diverse than Middle ring Eastern suburbs and it is diversifying faster. The reason for this these areas contain both new housing and the existing housing is more affordable it is more acessible. The Eastern suburbs have only really recieved an influx of Mainland Chinese over the last 20 years while the City of Casey has seen a huge influx of Afghans, South Asians and Filipinos. South Asians make up a higher share of the permenent immigration intake these days than Mainland Chinese hence outer growth areas are diverisfying. I agree White voters in the City of Casey are more likley to swing to ONP so a One Nation Victory depends on ethnic polarisation.

Anecdotally, I have heard that there are a surprising amount of Hindus willing to vote ONP, I have not heard the same about Muslims or Sikhs. Over half this seat has anglo ancestry, it is very much mortgage belt in character and there is a high concentration of blue collar workers here – so definitely plenty of material for ONP to work with despite some headwinds not present in Secret Harbour for example.

Typically, if ONP make it to the count against Labor or a non-conservative opponent, their 2CP is quite similar to the ONP+LNP primary vote. I could foresee ONP getting about 30% here so should the Liberals run 3rd in the early 20s and labor falls into the late 20s that would allow ONP to win here, seems very plausible at this stage

I reckon that in various outer-suburban, working class Labor seats like Cranbourne as well as Lara and Werribee, the 2CP contest will be Labor vs One Nation. I don’t think many disenfranchised voters in the outer suburbs will be rushing to vote Liberal.

The large non-major party vote in 2022 was off the back of anti-lockdown and disaffection. A lot of CALD voters will switch to left-wing parties like the Greens or Vic Socialists because of their economically left-wing policies and more explicit opposition to One Nation.

A lot of disenfranchised and past Liberal voters will switch to One Nation as part of a protest vote or because they dislike Labor but don’t believe the Liberals could win.

@Nimalan, I agree that Cranbourne has a fast-growing and culturally diverse population. It is because of new housing estates that is further out and is therefore more accessible to lower-income earners or younger families. This means greater sensitivities to costs of living and availability of infrastructure and public services.

Here is what I think the potential archetype of White Working Class Red One Nation Voter from the by-election looks like

– Works in Trade/Labourers following from family history. Either TAFE or No post-high school as their highest attainment

– They leaned to nationalism so they Voted No to the Voice however most voted Yes for Same Sex Marriage

– Either Irreligious or even turned suddenly religiously Christian recently and seems to have very little secular/moderate Christians in this group.

– Mostly Outer Suburban, Regional Cities and towns with particular industry.

– Loves the Australian Stereotypical Lifestyle and activities such as going to Camping. They only go to Inner City occasionally and would rather socialise outside the cosmopolitan bubble.

– Drives Big Cars (4WD, Utes or SUV’s)

– Does not like Trump in treating Australia and handling International affairs but is more supportive on his domestic/social policies

– Pretty much only wants minimal numbers of non-Whites in Australia and must be deemed ‘Assimilated’.

– Often watches Right-wing podcast/Social Media Influncers such as Two Worlds Collide, Big Chocky.

@ Maxim/Votante
That is interesting Hindus typically are more Educated and White collar than Sikhs and Muslims in this seat. There is also a Sri Lankan Buddhist community in this seat and Casey LGA more generally. ONP is typically not hostile to Hindus but some right wing commentary such as Hugo “auspill” Lennon who is behind the March for Australia protest is very hostile to South Asian immigration. Two world Collide podcast was also generally less accepting towards Joanna Howe and her mixed race Australian born children.

I feel this seat will have strong anti-SRL East sentiment than the Narre Warrens as there is a competing priority Clyde Rail extention. The two Narre Warren seats especially the northern one are more etablished and have more homes owned outright they also have a higher Muslim %.

Please note Old Cranbourne is seeing many working class non-white CALD moving in for cheaper cost of living and the White population is moving out either to the new housing estates or to White Heavier Area so I don’t think it would ONP perform as much as Secret Harbour.

Yes, if you reconcile all sa1s that make up Cranbourne in regards to ancestries, you get a seat that’s around 59% White/European, 24% South Asian/Central Asian with other minorities in the mix. It would have to be a very racially polarised result for One Nation to win here. In regards to the Narre Warren, people need to remember that Cranbourne North, Lynbrook & Hampton Park have significant South Asian communities too, and is actually more diverse with 50% of the seat being white. Narre Warren North is only around 61% white. The whole area has gotten a lot more diverse. Maybe One Nation can pull some CALD communities into the fold, but it’s not that likely in my opinion.

I think the white vote here is very favourable to One Nation in the City of Casey, but the diversity of seats outside of Pakenham are a big hurdle to climb. Pakenham’s a solid 74% white sea, whiter than Melton(68%) or Sydenham(65%). One Nation will have an easier time there(quite a clear win for them, all things considered.

@Marh is that an anecdotal observation or is there available data pointing to that? Just out of interest

@Maxim, here is profile id which indicates the significant decline of English Only speakers from 2016 to 2021 (from 68% down to 62%)

https://profile.id.com.au/casey/language?WebID=160

There’s data for ancestry responses that you can line up with sa1s(statistical area level 1s) for data. Statistical area 1s make up electorates(but some, usually not too many are split between electorates) and you could then assign all these sa1s to districts. I think it’s the way Pollbludger gets its data for federal electorates, except he lined up federal electorates instead of sa1s because you can’t really make it for state electorate borders otherwise.

So there is actual data for this, except you manually have to make the groupings of people(i.e southern european = greek, italian etc. and then you can later sum all Europeans to make white people too). I’ve also been to these places too. It’s not exact though(because of the 1-2 sa1s that get split + race is subjective, and ancestries are self-reported, with ‘Australian’ ancestry being added to North-West European). I wouldn’t take it as gospel(there’s variation of course), but this is how they make maps like the one in this link. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Melbourne

The map in the link also showcases this.

I could see ironically that it is One Nation’s only every chance to win this seat because if they lost this round , they probably won’t be able to win this seat by 2030 and onwards as the seat (unless it got redistributed significantly more southwest) would be significantly more diversified and many of the ONP White voter base would have moved out.

@ mozo, it is already pretty outdated being in 2016. Australia does not count race in census but I could see based on calculating the country of birth from Father that:

– Australia is probably 75-76% White and roughly 23% visible minority (a Canadian Term which means non-white but non-Indigenous)

– For Melbourne, it is roughly 66% White and 34% non-white in 2021 Census and probably will be around 60% White and 40% non-white from this years census which will be released June next year.

Yeah my data is based off 2021 census data. Who knows how white Cranbourne is in 2026 vs 2021?

Interestingly if we go back to the 2011 Census on the link @Marh shared the drop in Old Cranbourne has been even more dramatic as English only speakers have decreased in both relative and absolute terms it was 76% in 2011 higher then Greater Melbourne Average. I think the issue is that as there is plenty of land nearby there is little knockdown and rebuilds in the older parts of Cranbourne so those houses as they age are not sort after So when a White family decides to move on it is likley that a low wealth CALD family that buys the house. Botanic Ridge is interesting as it is a growth area but is around 88% English speaking much higher than the national average i believe young White tradie families build new homes there it is a bit like Sunbury or Secret Harbour as @Mozo mentioned. Junction Village and Cranbourne South are semi-rural Green Wedge areas. I mentioned in the Narre Warren South thread sometime back that Casey council may have had the fastest Ethnoculturals transformations in the Western World over last 20 years. Back in the late 90s it would have been like Penrith/Lindsay electorate or classic Howard battler archtype. Because housing is more affordable here it is diverysing faster than say Bennelong/Northern Sydney or the Middle ring Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne i think that is a fact that many forget. I do agree that ONP will do well among White voters here unless they can make inroads into Non White communities they will need massive racial polarisation like @Mozo mentioned it would not need to be simmilar to what we see in Missippii or Alabama or how the Voice result was racially polarised in Lingiari for ONP to win.