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I believe the Liberal candidate here was dud and it hurt them here, if the Liberal want to win this seat they need to fix their preselection process.
@ SpaceFish
Look at Trents comments in the Cranbourne thread i think he is 100% correct
On a similar note to my comment in the Cranbourne thread too, the sandbelt is another area that swung quite aggressively to Labor in May, so I can’t see those >8% margins being wiped out in Mordialloc, Carrum or Frankston either.
I’m guessing that most of the middle-to-outer southeast suburbs will have pretty “status quo” results in 2026 with very minimal swings. That applies to everywhere from Oakleigh & Bentleigh, to Clarinda & Mulgrave, the sandbelt seats of Mordialloc, Carrum & Frankston, all the way out to the Narre Warrens & Cranbourne.
The Liberals aren’t going to gain any seats in that region at all given every margin is over 8%, and all had above average swings to Labor in May indicating it’s not where the Labor brand is unpopular.
* All except Bentleigh (in Goldstein) had above average swings to Labor, but Bentleigh has a very popular local MP who I think will have a strong incumbency advantage, and Goldstein wasn’t an ALP v LIB contest.
The Narre Warrens and Cranbourne get hyped every election even last state election all the commentary predicated huge swings to Libs and that this will be their new heartland. I remember Tim Smith once Cranbourne will replace Kew as the new heartland. In a nutshell there is no sense of neglect in this seat. I concede it more socially conservative than the Sandbelt but i dont think Trans issues is enough to flip it.