Northern Metropolitan – Victoria 2022

Incumbent MLCs

  • Nazih Elasmar (Labor), since 2006
  • Craig Ondarchie (Liberal), since 2010
  • Fiona Patten (Reason), since 2014
  • Samantha Ratnam (Greens), since 2017
  • Sheena Watt (Labor), since 20201

1Sheena Watt replaced Jenny Mikakos in October 2020 following Mikakos’ resignation.

Geography

Electorate Margin Electorate Margin Electorate Margin
Broadmeadows ALP 24.3% Kalkallo ALP 20.1% Preston ALP 21.2% vs GRN
Brunswick GRN 2.0% vs ALP Melbourne GRN 1.7% vs ALP Richmond ALP 5.8% vs GRN
Essendon ALP 15.8% Northcote ALP 1.7% vs GRN Thomastown ALP 27.3%
Greenvale ALP 22.7% Pascoe Vale ALP 9.1% vs IND

Northern Metropolitan covers northern parts of the Melbourne urban area, stretching from the Melbourne CBD in the south, all the way out to Wallan. The region is a narrow strip stretching on a northern axis from the city centre.

Nine out of eleven seats are held by Labor, with two held by the Greens.

In addition to two Greens seats, there are two Labor-Greens marginals and a fifth seat where the Greens came a distant second, along with one seat where an independent came in the top two. There are only five classic Labor-Liberal seats in this region.

Redistribution
The Northern Metropolitan region expanded to the north and lost its eastern edge.

The two electorates of Bundoora and Mill Park were shifted into the renamed North Eastern Metropolitan region. The electorate of Essendon was shifted into this region from Western Metropolitan. The northernmost electorate of Yuroke was split in two, with the new seats of Greenvale and Kalkallo created.

The redistribution weakened Labor and the Liberal Party and strengthened the Greens. The Labor vote was reduced from 42.6% to 41.6%. In 2018, the Greens outpolled the Liberal Party by 0.2%, but on the new boundaries that margin widens to 1.9%.

History
The Northern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

At the first election in 2006, Labor won three seats, while the Liberal Party and the Greens win one seat each. In 2010, the Liberal Party won a second seat off Labor.

That second Liberal seat fell to Fiona Patten of the Sex Party (now Reason) in 2014.

The 2018 election produced a status quo result. Labor retained two seats, with the Liberal Party, Greens and Reason each retaining one seat.

2018 result

2018 election Redistribution
Party Votes % Swing Quota % Quota
Labor 191,737 42.6 +2.2 2.555 41.6 2.495
Greens 75,347 16.7 -1.8 1.004 18.3 1.099
Liberal 74,164 16.5 -5.4 0.988 16.4 0.985
Socialists 18,927 4.2 +4.2 0.252 4.1 0.248
Democratic Labour 18,778 4.2 +1.2 0.250 3.7 0.224
Reason 15,156 3.4 +0.5 0.202 3.5 0.207
Derryn Hinch’s Justice 9,093 2.0 +2.0 0.121 2.2 0.134
Animal Justice 9,131 2.0 +0.5 0.122 2 0.119
Liberal Democrats 6,181 1.4 -0.1 0.082 1.4 0.085
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 5,377 1.2 +0.1 0.072 1.2 0.072
Vote 1 Local Jobs 5,338 1.2 +0.8 0.071 1 0.063
Aussie Battler 4,469 1.0 +1.0 0.060 0.8 0.049
Voluntary Euthanasia 3,655 0.8 +0.5 0.049 0.8 0.048
Health Australia 3,701 0.8 +0.8 0.049 0.8 0.047
Sustainable Australia 3,102 0.7 +0.7 0.041 0.7 0.043
Transport Matters 2,583 0.6 +0.6 0.034 0.6 0.034
Others 3,500 0.8 0.047 0.8 0.048
Informal 22,717 4.8 4.7

Preference flows
On primary votes, the Labor Party retained two seats, with the Greens holding one seat on primary votes and the Liberal Party falling just short of a full quota.

Let’s fast-forward until there were eleven candidates competing for the final two seats (although the Liberal Party is very close to winning one of those two seats):

  • Craig Ondarchie (LIB) – 0.987 quotas
  • Burhan Yigit (ALP) – 0.521
  • John McBride (DLP) – 0.272
  • Stephen Jolly (SOC) – 0.266
  • Fiona Patten (RP) – 0.261
  • Carmela Dagiandis (DHJ) – 0.201
  • Bruce Poon (AJP) – 0.156
  • Louise Hitchcock (LDP) – 0.085
  • Walter Mikac (ABP) – 0.082
  • Ethan Constantinou (SFF) – 0.074
  • Nathan Purcell (VLJ) – 0.074

The Shooters outpolled Vote 1 Local Jobs by just 4 votes at this key point of elimination. Vote 1 Local Jobs preferences flowed strongly to Reason, pushing Patten into third place.

  • Ondarchie (LIB) – 0.988
  • Yigit (ALP) – 0.521
  • Patten (RP) – 0.324
  • McBride (DLP) – 0.273
  • Jolly (SOC) – 0.266
  • Dagiandis (DHJ) – 0.201
  • Poon (AJP) – 0.157
  • Mikac (ABP) – 0.086
  • Hitchcock (LDP) – 0.085
  • Constantinou (SFF) – 0.074

Shooters preferences then flowed strongly to Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party:

  • Ondarchie (LIB) – 0.989
  • Yigit (ALP) – 0.522
  • Patten (RP) – 0.325
  • McBride (DLP) – 0.273
  • Dagiandis (DHJ) – 0.268
  • Jolly (SOC) – 0.266
  • Poon (AJP) – 0.157
  • Mikac (ABP) – 0.087
  • Hitchcock (LDP) – 0.087

The Aussie Battler Party outpolled the Liberal Democrats by just ten votes, and LDP preferences mostly flowed to Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party:

  • Ondarchie (LIB) – 0.993
  • Yigit (ALP) – 0.522
  • Dagiandis (DHJ) – 0.344
  • Patten (RP) – 0.326
  • McBride (DLP) – 0.274
  • Jolly (SOC) – 0.267
  • Poon (AJP) – 0.157
  • Mikac (ABP) – 0.088

Aussie Battler preferences scattered a bit, with a majority flowing to Animal Justice, but this didn’t keep them out of elimination in the next round:

  • Ondarchie (LIB) – 0.994
  • Yigit (ALP) – 0.522
  • Dagiandis (DHJ) – 0.365
  • Patten (RP) – 0.331
  • McBride (DLP) – 0.274
  • Jolly (SOC) – 0.267
  • Poon (AJP) – 0.209

About half of Animal Justice preferences flowed to Reason, with most of the remainder going to Justice:

  • Ondarchie (LIB) – 0.995
  • Yigit (ALP) – 0.524
  • Dagiandis (DHJ) – 0.450
  • Patten (RP) – 0.441
  • McBride (DLP) – 0.275
  • Jolly (SOC) – 0.271

Socialist preferences mostly flowed to Reason, pushing them ahead of Labor and Justice:

  • Ondarchie (LIB) – 0.997
  • Patten (RP) – 0.641
  • Yigit (ALP) – 0.549
  • Dagiandis (DHJ) – 0.459
  • McBride (DLP) – 0.278

DLP preferences mostly flowed to Justice but just enough flowed to the Liberal Party to elect the Liberal candidate, and to push Labor into last place.

  • Ondarchie (LIB) – 1.000
  • Dagiandis (DHJ) – 0.721
  • Patten (RP) – 0.642
  • Yigit (ALP) – 0.551

Labor preferences then elected Reason:

  • Patten (RP) – 1.120
  • Dagiandis (DHJ) – 0.727

Candidates

  • A – Imad Hirmiz (Family First)
  • B – Liberal
    1. Evan Mulholland
    2. Owen Guest
    3. Tim Staker-Gunn
    4. Melinda Tempany
    5. Hafiz Qadeer
  • C – Georgia Diamantopoulos (Transport Matters)
  • D – Amita Ros (New Democrats)
  • E – Kelly Moran (United Australia)
  • F – Damien Richardson (Freedom Party)
  • G – Paul Silverberg (Liberal Democrats)
  • H – Simone Philpott-Smart (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
  • I – Alison Pridham (Sustainable Australia)
  • J – Lisa Taggart (Health Australia)
  • K – Pauline Grutzner (Companions and Pets)
  • L – Adem Somyurek (Democratic Labour)
  • M – Leah Horsfall (Animal Justice)
  • N – Samantha Ratnam (Greens)
  • O – Ethan Constantinou (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
  • P – Labor
    1. Sheena Watt
    2. Enver Erdogan
    3. Susie Byers
    4. Chloe Gaul
    5. Ramy Aljalil
  • Q – Nickee Freeman (Angry Victorians)
  • R – Fiona Patten (Reason)
  • S – Hatice Yesilagac (Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews)
  • T – Andrew Hale (Legalise Cannabis)
  • U – Jessica Davis (One Nation)
  • V – Jerome Small (Victorian Socialists)
  • Ungrouped
    1. Colin John Mancell (Independent)

Assessment
This region is a strong one for the Greens and a weak one for the Liberal Party. It’s hard to see the Greens losing their seat, or the Liberal Party gaining a second.

Labor holds two and could conceivably win a third but it is unlikely.

There remains one seat here for a small party under this voting system. Fiona Patten is in a strong position to hold that seat but could be knocked off by any number of rivals.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the poll in Northern Metropolitan, with the Greens narrowly outpolling the Liberal Party.

Labor topped the primary vote in ten out of eleven seats, with the Greens topping the primary vote in Brunswick.

The Greens came second in four other seats, with the Liberal Party only coming in the top two in six out of eleven seats.

The Labor vote ranged from 32.3% in Melbourne and 32.8% in Brunswick up to 50% in Kalkallo and Greenvale and 54% in Thomastown.

The Greens vote ranged from 4-5% in Greenvale, Kalkallo and Thomastown up to 30% in Melbourne and Northcote and 35.8% in Brunswick.

The Liberal vote ranged from 9.7% in Brunswick to 25.6% in Essendon.

Results of the 2018 Victorian upper house election in the Northern Metropolitan region

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12 COMMENTS

  4. Liberals are at risk of losing their seat here, they didn’t get very many preference flows in 2018 and just scraped over the line. Could be interesting…

  6. Having a play with the calculator here:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/guide/calculator-upper

    I now reckon Somyurek’s not as much of a chance as it looked at first. There’s a good chance the outcome could be basically unchanged – 2 Lab, 1 Lib, 1 Green, then last seat either Fiona Patten or Vic Socialists.

    Have to actually have a fairly large swing towards Libs and RW micros to get Somyurek in… If the shift is more people shifting off Labor but onto Greens and Animal Justice etc, it won’t happen.

  7. I think the Victorian Socialists chances are being underestimated here as well.

    I got the Victorian Socialists winning the final spot at Fiona Patten’s expense with 4% of the vote (the same vote they got last time) assuming a dead cat bounce to the Liberal Party and a swing away from the ALP with the Greens getting a swing towards. Reason has all the cooker parties preferencing against them.

    However, where things start getting interesting is if the Reason vote increases. For every percentage point that the Reason vote increases, the Victorian Socialists would need to increase their vote by 2% compared to 2018 in order to win the final seat; with around 10% or more required to be guaranteed the seat (in this scenario, Reason would need to poll a quota in its own right to get Fiona Patten over the line at the expense of the second Labor candidate, with VS still winning the final seat. This scenario is an unlikely outcome).

    It wouldn’t surprise me if the Victorian Socialists get 6%-8% of the vote (probably closer to 6% though) in the Northern Metro region, based on the size of their ground campaign, which is arguably bigger than it was in 2018.

  8. Predicting:
    ALP – 2
    LIB – 1
    GRN – 1
    The last spot goes to Labour DLP, Fiona Patten’s Reason Party or Vic Socialists.

  9. WIll easily be 2 ALP, 1 Liberal and 1 Green.

    Whats going to work against VS the most is the lack of Labor and Greens surplus as both parties have Reason at 2 and will both help Fiona a lot.

    Ive been handing out at a pre-poll booth the last week and a bit and Reason have been incredibly visible and active at prepoll, and actively conversing and listening to voters. In contrast VS have treated this like a student election, blocking voters (to the point of safely preventing them from crossing a road) and continuing to talk at voters when they say “no thanks” and making voters visibly uncomfortable. A small minority seem to be listening to VS and voting for them but hardly enough to make it seem that they could beat Reason with a high profiled (and well respected) lead candidate and Labor/Greens surplus. Also as a socialist myself and having seen how Socialist Alternative have run student unions in the past Id shudder to think how they would go about being an MP. Tip is Reason or DLP for the final splot

  10. Agreed, looks like Patten versus Somyurek. I’m imagining telling myself four years ago that the final vacancy for North Metro 2022 would be a battle between Fiona Patten’s third term and Adem Somyurek, joining the DLP.

  11. Of course, knowing group voting tickets, now that I’ve said that, somehow someone else totally random will win.

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