Pascoe Vale – Victoria 2022

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  1. The current vote tampering scandal is creating a bad look for Labor in this neck for the woods. Demographic change favours the Greens along with the boundary changes. With the anticipated move of Blandthorn to the Upper House, this opens up the potential for a Green or Independent challenge. If the Greens were to preselect former mayor (and former councillor for the key ward in the seat) – Natalie Abboud – things could certainly get interesting.

  2. Yildiz is busy setting up his own political party. Very little policy detail, seems to be jumping on the anti-lockdown, anti-vaccine mandate bandwagon. He may be lining himself up for a run for Northern Metro in the upper house.

  3. the contest is likely to be Labor v Greens anyway, and it’ll be marginal, interesting and close. To be fair, the election is a solid 8 months away, so there’s not much point trying to understand what’s going on just yet.

  4. It is easy to see it being a Labor vs Greens contest on the new boundaries. I just can’t see the Greens vote not starting a high 2 or low 3 and the Labor vote not starting with a mid to high 4. It will be a bit like Wills – ALP getting close to 60% on a 2pp.

  5. Isn’t Labor candidate to be Jana Stewart (ran for Kooyong in 2019) ? Lot more appealing to lefty swing voters v Greens than Blandthorn (a former close ally of Libs in student politics btw).

  6. Antony Green calculates the 2018 primary vote on the new boundaries as follows: ALP 38.3, GRN 20.5, Yildiz 16.4, LIB 11.7.

    The swings in 2018 suggest the vast majority of the Yildiz vote came from the major parties. I don’t see this being close.

  7. I predict that this is likely to be an ALP versus Green result, with a decent margin for the ALP.

  8. Yildiz is back with his new party, The Victorians. But it seems a lot of their agenda has been frustration with lockdowns, which may not be a relevant issue between now and the election.

  9. @geoffrey the labor candidate is now not Jana Stewart and is an unknown newcomer. Jana Stewart would have won quite convincingly, but now I am not so sure


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