Richmond – Victoria 2022

ALP 5.8% vs GRN

Incumbent MP
Richard Wynne, since 1999.

Geography
Inner Melbourne. Richmond covers most of the City of Yarra, covering the suburbs of Abbotsford, Burnley, Clifton Hill, Collingwood, Fitzroy and Richmond.

Redistribution
Richmond lost Fitzroy North to Brunswick. This increased the Labor margin from 5.5% to 5.8%.

History
Richmond was first created as a two-member district in the first Victorian Legislative Assembly in 1856. Both seats were held by unaligned members until 1889, when one of the two seats was won by the ALP.

In 1904, Richmond became a single-member district. It was first won by unaligned member George Bennett, who had been one of the two members for Richmond since 1889.

In 1908, the ALP’s Edmond Cotter won Richmond. He held it continuously from 1908 until 1945. In 1945, Richmond was won by Stan Keon, who left in 1949 to take the federal electorate of Yarra. He went on to be expelled from the Labor Party in 1955 and helped found the Democratic Labor Party.

In 1949, Richmond was won by Frank Scully, also of the ALP. He served as an assistant minister in the Cain government until 1955, when he left the ALP as part of the split that saw the creation of the Democratic Labor Party. He won re-election in Richmond in 1955 and became leader of the DLP in the Victorian Parliament from 1955 to 1958, when he lost the seat to the ALP’s Bill Towers. The ALP has held the seat ever since.

Towers held the seat until 1962, when he was succeeded by Clyde Holding. Holding became leader of the Victorian ALP from 1967, losing the 1970, 1973 and 1976 elections. In 1977 he moved to the federal seat of Melbourne Ports, and served as a minister in the Hawke government, and retired in 1998.

Richmond was held from 1977 to 1988 by Theo Sidiropoulos, and was won in 1988 by Demetri Dollis. In 1999, Dollis was disendorsed by Labor leader Steve Bracks, and was replaced by former Lord Mayor of Melbourne, Richard Wynne.

Wynne served in a variety of frontbench roles in the Bracks and Brumby governments.

Wynne has faced numerous serious challenges for his seat from the Greens over the last two decades. In 2010, Wynne’s primary vote dropped by 9%, and would have likely lost the seat to the Greens barring a decision by the Liberal Party to preference Labor over the Greens. Wynne suffered a further swing in 2014, but managed to win a fifth term. Wynne strengthened his margin in 2018, when the Liberal Party decided to not contest the seat.

Candidates

  • Gabrielle de Vietri (Greens)
  • Lucas Moon (Liberal)
  • Assessment
    The Greens have made serious challenges for Richmond multiple times over the last two decades. The retirement of the sitting member may open up another opportunity for a Greens challenge.

    2018 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Richard Wynne Labor 19,70544.4+11.144.2
    Kathleen Maltzahn Greens 15,19734.2+2.833.6
    Kevin Quoc TranIndependent2,6986.1+6.16.7
    Judy RyanReason2,9166.6+3.26.5
    Herschel LandesIndependent1,3403.0+3.03.2
    Craig KealyAnimal Justice1,2682.9+1.42.9
    Emma ManningIndependent8111.8+1.82.0
    Adrian WhiteheadIndependent4591.0+1.01.0
    Informal2,7835.9+2.2

    2018 two-candidate-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Richard Wynne Labor 24,62055.5+3.655.8
    Kathleen Maltzahn Greens 19,77444.5-3.644.2

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

    Labor won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (vs the Greens) in all three areas, ranging from 52.4% in the centre to 62.2% in the south.

    Voter groupIND prim %ALP 2CP %Total votes% of votes
    South13.762.29,16022.2
    Central7.552.46,32115.3
    North6.256.93,2827.9
    Other votes13.655.314,90736.1
    Pre-poll13.651.37,63218.5

    Election results in Richmond at the 2018 Victorian state election
    Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs Greens) and primary votes for Labor, the Greens and independent candidates.

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    28 COMMENTS

    1. The Greens will never win this seat if Kathleen Maltzahn is the candidate.

      She has now had three tries at it and if comparing federal vs state results it seems due to her whorephobic views she is box office poison.

      However, now that Richard Wynne is retiring and depending if a new Greens candidate is preselected and Libs not running in this seat like last time, I would expect this to be one of the seats easily changing hands because of the suppressed Green vote.

    2. yeah please, there’s so many terrible Vic Greens candidates and I feel that they’re getting less controversial. She needs to go.

    3. Yep, Maltzahn sucks. One of the absolute worst Greens candidates there are. Here’s hoping she finally loses preselection.

    4. If the Yarra Greens branch preselect anyone but Maltzahn they’ll probably win it’s maddening they haven’t pulled their finger out in a previous attempt.

      With the incumbent retiring it’s never going to be as ripe for the taking.

    5. Former Yarra mayor and current councillor Gabrielle de Vietrie has been preselected for the seat for the Greens. Given the current member is retiring and Maltzahn hasn’t been selected again, seems like they’re taking it seriously.

    6. The Greens have indeed preselected ex-Mayor and current Yarra councillor Gabrielle de Vietri as their candidate for Richmond. This is going to be very very close indeed, I think, although I’d favour de Vietri over whichever career politician Labor parachute in.

    7. This will be interesting to watch, would the liberals running a candidate in this seat assist labor, hinder or little to no effect?

    8. It really depends where the Libs send their preferences. They will come third and neither Labor nor Greens will get to 50% primary. If anything, the Libs are the decision makers here.

    9. The libs polled 21% Primary in 2014 so if they run in 2022 a it will make a difference to the result i would assume. The redistribution will also make a difference.

    10. See, I get they’re different in ideology to a large extent but Libs should always preference Greens above Labor, it’s what Labor does and this strategy may actually force Labor to go into a minority government with the Greens giving them a bigger shot at winning next time

    11. Furtive, I thought ACT state elections use hare Clark where you don’t really preference parties, just candidates. With this system, I believe the libs only recommended intra party preferences.

    12. I mean more generally that having Greens in government didn’t help the Libs win back seats. After a term of coalition Labor/Greens government, the Lib vote only went backwards.

    13. Furtive, I would say the ACT is an exception in all Australian state and territory legislatures. It would be like Washington DC and Maryland in the USA, Republicans wont win there any time for the foreseeable future because the area is so well educated.

      In fact if the Liberals continue moving away from the centre right, then their chances of winning power in the ACT at the state level will be almost zero.

    14. @Yoh An Maryland has a Republican Governor in Larry Hogan and sends at least 1 Rep to the US House.
      Granted it is Democrat dominated but cities and counties outside of the Baltimore and Annapolis metros like Ocean City and Hagerstown are Republican.
      Interesting tidbit is the capital Annapolis’ Mayor is an Aussie: Gavin Buckley, a Dem.

      Re: the ACT Senate spot, the fact that the Labor vote polls so high means the Greens would always be missing out on a spot as the left vote absorbs into it. A splinter or stronger Greens vote would mean a drastically lower Labor vote and higher probability of the Libs picking up a spot.
      I think ACT voters are smart enough too to keep the split as is. As a future Liberal government without an ACT Senator would just ignore Canberra entirely when it came to infrastructure grants

    15. Yoh An: I agree that Canberra is unusually progressive but Victoria is itself Australia’s most progressive state. The Liberal attack lines are obvious but it’s also possible that voters just might end up liking having a Labor/Greens coalition government.

      LJ: Again, that speculation is at direct odds with the 2020 ACT results. A higher Green vote resulted in a lower Liberal vote.

    16. LJ Davidson, I was referring more to the state legislature, where Democrats do have a supermajority as that is the more relevant metric. The governorship would be equivalent to state premier, which in Australia is not directly elected.

      Agree that ACT would only correspond to central Washington DC plus a few suburbs, not rural areas of Maryland.

    17. The Greens Primary vote increased in the federal seat of Melbourne but the Green vote went down in the Richmond booths, this would suggest that Labor could hold on here.

    18. Bandt actually lost 2 booths in Richmond vs ALP. On the other hand Collingwood was Bandt’s best booth, and he would have easily won the aggregate vote in the booths covering the electorate

      Not running Maltzahn is a huge step forward. But I don’t think this is an easy Green gain. It has been a somewhat controversial term for Yarra Greens. Stephen Jolly may run solely to direct preferences against Greens.

    19. This is another interesting seat that i don’t think is a done deal for thee Greens. This area is represented by Greens at federal and council level so the expectation is that without a Labor incumbent this seat will turn green. The thing is though that the Yarra council which represents the area doesn’t have the best reputation and has many problems and conroversies. This could work against the Greens. I don’t know how well liked De Vietre was as mayor though. Voters may also separate the levels of government and not punish the Greens at state level.

    20. The only reason ALP may had hold the seat may be due to Kathleen Maltzahn’s more controversial and conservative view on the sex industry

    21. An interesting thing in this state election will be how well the Greens do, because Daniel Andrews is actually incredibly popular among Green voters, and I imagine particularly among Greens/Labor swing voters. The Victorian Labor party is much more progressive than Federal Labor so the Greens may not do as well here?

    22. @Adam I think green voters like him for many of Labors social policies but may not like Vic Labors record on environmental issues, such as logging. The Greens will likely highlight this during their campaign.

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