Richmond – Australia 2022

ALP 4.1%

Incumbent MP
Justine Elliot, since 2004.

Geography
Far north coast of NSW. Richmond covers Tweed Heads, Byron Bay, Ballina, Murwillumbah, Mullumbimby and surrounding areas. It covers the entirety of Tweed and Byron council areas, as well as the majority of Ballina council area.

History
Richmond is an original federation seat, and has always covered the northeastern corner of New South Wales, although it has contracted further into that corner over the last century as other seats have been created in northeastern NSW. The seat was consistently held by conservative parties from its creation until 1990, and was gained by the Country Party early in its existence in 1922, and they held it continously for almost seventy years.

Recently it has become a much more marginal seat, although the 2007 election result pushed the seat out of the marginal category.

The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist Thomas Ewing, who served as a minister in the Deakin government from 1905 to 1908 before retiring in 1910. His seat was retained by Liberal candidate Walter Massy-Greene. Massy-Greene went on to serve as a minister in Billy Hughes’ Nationalist governments, but lost Richmond to Country Party candidate Roland Green in 1922. He was appointed to the Senate in 1923, and served there until his retirement in 1938. He was relegated to the backbench during the Stanley Bruce government, but returned to the ministry as part of the Lyons government in the 1930s.

Green was regularly challenged by other Country Party candidates at subsequent federal elections. While the ALP stood in Richmond in 1925, Green was reelected unopposed in 1928 and faced opposition only from another Country Party candidate in 1929. At the 1931 election Green was challenged by three other Country candidates and one independent. He was regularly challenged by Robert Gibson at every election from 1928 to 1937. Green barely held on against internal party opponents at the 1931 and 1934 elections.

In 1937, two Country Party candidates and an ALP candidate all stood against the sitting Country MP. While Green came first on primary votes, Gibson’s preferences pushed Country candidate Larry Anthony ahead of the ALP candidate, and then ALP preferences gave the seat to Anthony.

Anthony served as a minister under Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden in 1940 and 1941 and was a senior member of the Opposition during the Curtin/Chifley Labor government. In 1949 he joined Robert Menzies’ cabinet, and served in it until his death in 1957.

The subsequent by-election saw four Country Party candidates stand, although one clearly stood out, with Anthony’s son Doug polling 49.8% of the primary vote.

The younger Anthony joined the ministry in 1964 and was groomed to be the next leader of the Country Party, and upon Jack McEwen’s retirement in 1971 he became Deputy Prime Minister. The Coalition lost power in 1972, and Anthony returned to the role of Deputy Prime Minister upon the dismissal of the Whitlam government in 1975. He served in this role throughout the Fraser government, during which time his party’s name changed first to the National Country Party and then to the National Party. Following the election of the Hawke government in 1983, Anthony retired in 1984.

The seat was retained in 1984 by Nationals state director Charles Blunt, outpolling a Liberal Party challenger and overtaking the ALP on Liberal preferences, despite Blunt having no local links with the far north of NSW. Blunt immediately moved to the shadow ministry and in 1989 managed to win a leadership challenge against Ian Sinclair. His leadership saw attempts to modernise the party and bring it closer to the Liberal Party, but Blunt’s leadership was cut short in 1990 when he lost Richmond to ALP candidate Neville Newell, who won a slim margin after a 7.1% swing. While the Nationals margin had fallen below 60% in the 1980s, this still saw a big jump in the ALP vote.

Newell held on in 1993 against a challenge from Nationals candidate Larry Anthony (son of Doug and grandson of Larry Sr) and a Liberal candidate. In 1996, Newell was defeated by the third-generation of the Anthony family. Newell went on to hold the state seat of Tweed from 1999 until his defeat in 2007.

Anthony was reelected in 1998 and 2001, although won by slim margins very different to the huge margins won by his father and grandfather. The 2004 election saw Anthony, then a junior minister in the Howard government, defeated by ALP candidate Justine Elliot, despite a national swing to the Coalition in a backlash against Mark Latham’s leadership of the ALP.

Elliot has been re-elected five times.

Candidates

  • Terry Sharples (Independent)
  • Nathan Jones (Independent)
  • Monica Shepherd (Informed Medical Options)
  • David Warth (Independent)
  • Gary Biggs (Liberal Democrats)
  • Justine Elliot (Labor)
  • Kimberly Hone (Nationals)
  • Tracey Bell-Henselin (One Nation)
  • Mandy Nolan (Greens)
  • Robert Marks (United Australia)
  • Assessment
    Don’t be fooled by Elliot’s long tenure in this seat: it remains very marginal. In addition to the Nationals, the Greens have ambitions here. If they were to overtake Labor they would be in a strong position to win, but the gap is still quite wide.

    2019 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Matthew Fraser Nationals 36,979 36.9 -0.8
    Justine Elliot Labor 31,807 31.7 +0.7
    Michael Lyon Greens 20,384 20.3 -0.1
    Hamish Mitchell United Australia Party 3,913 3.9 +3.9
    Ronald Mcdonald Sustainable Australia 3,154 3.1 +3.1
    Ray Karam Independent 1,566 1.6 +1.6
    Morgan Cox Christian Democratic Party 1,338 1.3 -0.2
    Tom Barnett Involuntary Medication Objectors 1,179 1.2 +1.2
    Informal 8,061 7.4 +3.8

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Justine Elliot Labor 54,251 54.1 +0.1
    Matthew Fraser Nationals 46,069 45.9 -0.1

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into four parts. Polling places in Byron and Ballina council areas have been grouped together. Booths in Tweed, which cover a majority of the population, have been split between those in Tweed Heads and in the remainder of the council.

    The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a majority of 54-55% in Ballina and the rural parts of Tweed Shire, and a massive 74.2% majority in Byron Shire. The vote was a dead heat in Tweed Heads, with the Nationals winning by four votes.

    The Greens primary vote ranged from 13.2% in Tweed Heads to 43.7% in Byron.

    Voter group GRN prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
    Byron 43.7 74.2 13,262 13.2
    Tweed Heads 13.2 50.0 12,610 12.6
    Tweed Shire 20.8 54.4 12,246 12.2
    Ballina 22.2 55.1 8,426 8.4
    Pre-poll 15.4 49.7 46,718 46.6
    Other votes 18.6 50.7 7,058 7.0

    Election results in Richmond at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Nationals and the Greens.

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    217 COMMENTS

    1. @niamlan yes but the liberals dont need to exclusively run for richmond they can run alongside the nationals candidate. i would wager anything they would still poll some primary and strip some of that from greens.labor and the overal 2pp should they finish ahead of the nats would it be enough to win richmond i dont know maybe not but it costs them nothing to try. figurivitely speaking ofc

    2. @redistributed yes im aware of that but im asking and have actually suggested that they run here in richmond. yes it is a gentlemans agreement that they wont run in seats where there is a sitting member as they would effectively be runnign against themselves. at a state level they have desginated seats due to OPV. Port macquarie was the exception to this as it was considered a nationals seat and the sitting member switched allegiance and that ended up being a lib v nat on the 2cp. i think its time the libs have a go at ballina as the nats arent making any ground. though they were running from govt not opposition so 2027 may tell how far gone thaat seat is

    3. As a regional-born bloke, I feel like I must intervene.

      The Coalition does not like running two candidates in regional NSW. In Port they did it because Leslie Williams changed from the Nationals to the Liberals, so the Nationals preselected Mayor Peta Pinson, but Williams was still easily re-elected and Labor/Greens got bugger all votes like always. In 2027 I highly doubt it will be another three-cornered contest.

      If Gurmesh Singh (National) resigned as the member for Coffs then the Liberals might consider running in that seat. Same goes for if Geoff Provest (National) resigns as the member for Tweed. However, Clarence, Myall Lakes and Oxley would remain Nationals seats, and they would continue to contest Lismore. Ballina could possibly have one turn of a three-cornered contest to see who gets the most votes, but then again in a situation where there is only one Coalition candidate, a Liberal voter will vote National and vice versa, they wouldn’t be voting for Labor in that case unless there was some I
      miraculously weird circumstances surrounding it and even then in safe seats it wouldn’t really matter TBH.

      If independent Joe McGirr resigned in Wagga then maybe another three-cornered contest could occur, the Libs might be behind the Nats due to a larger rural, agricultural scene as opposed to a more coastal regional/rural area (with lots of agricultural industries but also more fishing, tourism, etc) which is more Liberal, but Labor preferences still might elect a Liberal in Wagga. Some Nationals voters in Wagga might be voting for the Nats not because they hate the Libs, Speakman, Perrottet or Gladys (all three are well-liked in NSW) but because Daryl McGuire was a corrupt wanker who dated Gladys, bullied her, Gladys didn’t dob him in because of the bullying, McGuire resigned after an ICAC investigation and Gladys had an ICAC investigation, resigned as Premier and from Parliament all because of this “investigation”. So really my guess is that voters in Wagga Wagga were angry that McGuire stabbed Gladys in the back and abused his power as the member for Wagga.

    4. I’ve heard a few questions about the Greens vote in random regional areas (given regional areas are usually conservative-leaning) and although I’ve never lived in a Greens-voting area (as I’ve said before I grew up near Port Macquarie which is in a very Coalition-leaning area), however I can say a few things from my general knowledge and my tourism knowledge.

      If a regional town has a high Greens vote, it’s probably an alternative lifestyle community full of hippies. Often the area will have different Greens to the ones in the inner-city though and other micro parties do eat into their margins, as well as the major parties as the alternative lifestyle communities decrease (in Elands in Lyne the Nationals’ TPP increased significantly as Elands has become less hippie; Elands was one of the only booths in Lyne where Labor had a majority of the TPP and the only one with a Greens vote above 15%). So the locals in these towns obviously have high proportions of anti-vaccination views, vaccine hesitancy, anti-fluoridation, pro-alternative medicine, environmentalism, NIMBYism, recreational cannabis usage, etc. They aren’t the Adam Bandt-style Greens of the inner-cities, they’re more like RFK Jr. in America. So if the town of Mullumbimby (in Richmond) was in the US then it would be voting for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (the Democrat-turned-independent environmentalist and lawyer who is known for his vaccine skepticism; even though he says his kids are vaccinated he still promotes BS about MMR vaccines and autism and COVID-19 vaccines and government plots and stuff).

    5. The reason I’m putting this here is because this seat seems to have an abundance of these communities.

      I’ve found a few rural towns where a plurality of the voters there voted for the Greens as their first preference in 2022.

      In New South Wales: Elands (Lyne), Nimbin (Page), Tanja (Eden-Monaro) and Wollombi (Hunter), plus of course heaps of towns in Richmond (Byron Bay, Lennox Head, Mullumbimby, Murwillumbah, etc).

      In Victoria: Airleys Inlet (Wannon) and Winters Flat (Bendigo).

      In Queensland: Beechmont (Wright) and Maleny (Fisher).

      In Tasmania: Woodbridge (Franklin).

      I know some like Elands are hippie towns but some of them I don’t know. Can anyone confirm if these are all hippie towns or is there another reason they vote Greens?

    6. Aireys Inlet is not a hippie town in the true sense. It is, however, very much an environmentalist and socially progressive town. It is a sea change/tree change town surrounded by national park and ocean. People choose to live there for that reason. It is also an artistic town, a tourist town and a surf town. Many retired academics live there as do many current staff of Geelong’s Deakin Uni and Epworth Hospital, both a relatively short commute away. These are all characteristics that favour a high Green vote, which can also be seen in neighbouring towns.
      Winters Flat is in Castlemaine and the Green vote is high throughout Castlemaine and neighbouring villages. A major tree change destination very popular with former inner north Melbourne residents. Again very much environmentalist, socially progressive and artistic.

    7. @WanderWest oh okay makes sense. Anyone know anything about Coral Bay in Western Australia? Seems that there was a high Greens vote there too.

    8. Coral Bay is a key town for accessing Ningaloo Reef and was the centre of the community struggle against the development proposal. It’s a great family camping town with a wonderful bakery.

    9. Maleny is absolutely a hippie town and has long been one of the most antivax towns in Queensland, but I don’t think committed antivaxxers really lean particularly Greens these days.

    10. @ Wander West
      There are some other interesting examples such as Lavers Hill, Gellibrand River, Forrest in the Otways. It would be interesting if this impacts the electorate of Polwarth going forward. There is natural barriers to population growth in these areas so it is population replacement.

    11. I think it is to be expected that different groups may vote for the same political party, after all the Liberals receive votes from both corporatists and social conservatives, and Labor receive votes from both social liberals and blue-collar union members.

    12. @ Nimalan
      Those Otway towns are quite a bit different to Aireys. Logging battles in the 90s saw quite a few activists settle in those towns and they’ve also experienced a bit of an ecotourism boom in recent years.
      Polwarth has definitely seen solid growth for the Greens in recent elections. Any redistribution that sees the electorate contract east (focusing more on the Surf Coast) will benefit them. The main Surf Coast booths are currently a three way split. Both Labor and Libs went backwards in Polwarth last election. If the Greens are ever to pick up a lower house seat in regional Victoria, Polwarth (or any future seat based on the Surf Coast) is likely to be it.

    13. @ Wander West
      Thanks for your insights. I am wondering if you think those Otway towns will continue to strengthen over time for Labor versus Libs TPP even if we assume for argument’s sake the boundaries dont change much? These town’s TPP is not as strong as Aireys i accept the Greens may outpoll Labor someday in these areas. The issue is that unlike Torquay where there is new housing estates in these small towns we need to wait for an older conservative resident to move out before a younger more progressive resident moves in due to limited housing supply so it may take longer for a demographic change to occur.
      I would also watch for Bass Coast shire to see a sea change demographic move in.

    14. @Nimalan
      We’re talking pretty small towns here, 100-200 voters each, so all it really takes to change the vote profile is for one family to move in and another move out. These towns are pretty remote too, so while they do have small primary schools and tourism economic bases they are probably still more likely to attract retirees or people wanting to work remotely in a isolated location, rather than young families. They are beyond Geelong’s commuter belt. Plenty of the older folk in these towns are the progressive voters too, especially if they were forest activists 30-40 years ago or the ones operating ecotourism businesses, organic farms etc.

    15. The National vote will probably make some sort of recovery given the massive slide in 2022 which will ensure they remain in the 2CP, though it’s very unlikely they win – it’s shaping up to be a Labor vs Green battle to get ahead or stay ahead of one another on primaries. Labor need to make sure they stunt any growth in the Green vote especially in weaker areas for the Greens like Ballina and Tweed, whereas the Greens need to keep taking votes particularly off Labor, especially in the Tweed but also in Ballina where they made substantial progress in 2022. I don’t think there is much room for the Greens to grow in their “base” areas like Byron and Mullumbimby anymore given they are already polling 50% primaries. Growth will need to come from Tweed and Ballina.

    16. @ GPPS
      For the Greens to win they need Labor to slip to 3rd place which is possible and for the Nats to remain in the 2CP. If it is a Green Versus Labor then Labor will win. Ideally. if the Nats do well it will help the Greens if Labor loses more centrist voters around Tweed/Ballina. In a good year i think the Nats can do well but not win it as Byron Shire has a thumping leftwing vote and swamps the rest of the electorate

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