Election day open thread
Polls have just opened on the east coast in today's federal election.
I won't be posting today, but you can discuss the election here.
I'll put...
Federal election prediction thread
I don't have another idea for today's blog post, so why don't we use this as a thread for everyone to make their final...
How wide is the hung parliament zone?
Primary votes for major parties have hit a record low, and they may break that record this weekend. There are also more crossbenchers in...
Podcast #147: What might a hung parliament look like?
Ben is joined by Peter Brent and the ABC's Tom Crowley for the final pre-election episode of the 2025 federal election campaign. We discuss...
How results play out across election night
This blog post is an update to two blog posts I wrote in 2022, looking at the rate of counting progress on election night...
How do results vary between election day and early voting?
As increasing numbers of Australians have chosen to vote early, we have now reached a point where the country is split roughly into two...
Early voting is holding at very high levels
Rates of early voting have been increasing for a long time, but reached a record high level of 2022, in the wake of the...
How will the states swing?
Australia's states often swing in different ways, with trends noticeable at the state level rather than just at the state or regional level. For...
Podcast #146: The dropping major party vote
Ben is joined by Jill Sheppard and Emily Foley to discuss the long-term trend of the major parties losing primary votes: what is causing...
Where might sophomore surge have an impact in 2025?
In yesterday's blog post I analysed the historical evidence for sophomore surge having an impact in Australian federal elections, dating back to 1998.
"Sophomore surge"...