Early voting is holding at very high levels
Rates of early voting have been increasing for a long time, but reached a record high level of 2022, in the wake of the...
How will the states swing?
Australia's states often swing in different ways, with trends noticeable at the state level rather than just at the state or regional level. For...
Podcast #146: The dropping major party vote
Ben is joined by Jill Sheppard and Emily Foley to discuss the long-term trend of the major parties losing primary votes: what is causing...
Where might sophomore surge have an impact in 2025?
In yesterday's blog post I analysed the historical evidence for sophomore surge having an impact in Australian federal elections, dating back to 1998.
"Sophomore surge"...
What’s the historical evidence for sophomore surge?
I have referenced the concept of "personal vote" and "sophomore surge" quite a few times during this campaign, and in the past, but I...
Button pushed for WA upper house
Over five weeks after the state election was held, the WA Electoral Commission has finally concluded the counting procedure for the WA Legislative Council,...
Podcast #145: Enrolments hit a record high
Ben is joined by Duncan McDonnell from Griffith University to discuss the close of rolls and nominations and the role of Gen Z voters...
The role of preferences in the two-party race
Australia has used preferential voting for over one hundred years, and in that time the party system has changed quite a bit. Since the...
Nominations declared – the statistical wrap-up
Nominations were declared at midday yesterday across Australia, but it took all afternoon to slowly get a sense of the candidate figures. I hope...
Candidate nominations live blog
7:16 - I'm going to end this live blog here and come back tomorrow morning with a summary of the candidate numbers.
One Nation has...