Northern Metropolitan – Victoria 2010

Incumbent MLCs

  • Greg Barber (GRN), since 2006.
  • Nazih Elasmar (ALP), since 2006.
  • Matthew Guy (LIB), since 2006.
  • Jenny Mikakos (ALP), since 2006. Previously MLC for Jika Jika Province 1999-2006.
  • Nathan Murphy (ALP), since 2010*.

*Murphy was elected to fill a vacancy created by the resignation of Theo Theophanous, who had held his seat since 2006, and had previously been an MLC for Jika Jika 1988-2006.

Geography
Northern Metropolitan region covers the electoral districts of Broadmeadows, Brunswick, Bundoora, Ivanhoe, Melbourne, Mill Park, Northcote, Preston, Richmond, Thomastown and Yan Yean.

All eleven seats are held by the ALP. In four of those seats, the main challenger to the ALP is the Greens. Three of those seats are considered marginal, with the ALP’s margin in Northcote a larger 8.5%. In the seven ALP vs Liberal contests, four of them are held by the ALP by margins of over 20%. The strongest Liberal seat in the region is Yan Yean, which is held by the ALP by 7.9%.

2006 result

GroupVotes%Quota
Labor176,30348.952.9371
Liberal83,63423.221.3933
The Greens61,46517.071.0240
Democratic Labor Party18,5815.160.3096
Family First10,1172.810.1685
Democrats4,5211.260.0753
People Power3,8941.080.0649
Joseph Kaliniy (Group D)1,6340.450.0272

Final primary vote figures in Northern Metropolitan produced a fairly clear-cut result. Four seats were decided on primary votes, and the ALP was so close to a third quota to make it very hard for another party to compete, while the Greens and Liberal surplus were too small to compete.

The Democratic Labor Party managed to build up substantial preferences that could have netted them a seat if the ALP vote had been lower. Indeed, the original count produced a result of two Labor MLCs and a Democratic Labor Party MLC. The DLP gained preferences from People Power and Family First, which allowed them to overtake the second Liberal candidate.

Preferences from minor parties gave the ALP their third quota, thus finishing the count, before Liberal ticket votes could be distributed. However these would have given the DLP roughly 88% of a quota at the end of the count.

Candidates
Sitting Greens MLC Greg Barber is running for re-election. The Democratic Labor Party is running Moreland councillor John Kavanagh, the brother of sitting DLP MLC Peter Kavanagh. No information on other candidates.

Political situation
The ALP is clearly dominant in Northern Metropolitan. It is also the strongest region for the Greens, who polled almost three quarters of the Liberal vote and have chances of winning four Legislative Assembly seats in the region.

The first two Labor seats are solid, as is the sole Liberal seat. There would have to be a substantial swing against the Greens to threaten Barber’s seat. With those four seats relatively safe, the third Labor seat will be the key seat in this region.

The Democratic Labor Party polled almost 40% of a quota in 2006. If they can maintain a solid primary vote and pick up minor party preferences sufficient to overtake the Liberal Party, they could gain a seat off the ALP, who may be vulnerable to a declining vote.

Having said that, an increased Liberal vote would likely kill off any chance of a DLP victory. Combining the final vote for the DLP and Liberal Party puts the Liberals only 2000 votes short of defeating the third Labor candidate. A strong preference flow from the DLP and other minor parties to the Liberal Party and a relatively small swing from the ALP to the Liberals could see the ALP lose their third seat to the Liberals.

While the Greens appear likely to increase their vote, they are a long way from winning a second seat. To do that the second Green would need to overtake the third Labor candidate, allowing the Greens to defeat the second Liberal on Labor preferences. The Greens are a long way from reaching that point.

15 COMMENTS

  1. The DLP had the Left hand position on the ballot paper (group A) which was well before the ALP and it is thought that a considerable number of people voted for them wile meaning to vote ALP. Northern Metro was the only region where the DLP out polled FF. Had the DLP not got said advantageous position then the ALP may well have polled 3 quotas in its own right. Unless the DLP get the same position on the ballot paper again (I believe that to be statistically quite unlikely given the random ballot draw) their vote will go down significantly.

  2. The Idea that people accidently voted for the DLP (in place of the ALP) has been discredited for years.
    A quick look a recent elections clearly show that old wise tale to be false.

    The DLP virtually doubled their vote at the Federal election and are interviewing as many as 45 candidates for the upcoming State election.

    The increased interest in the DLP and distributionism (as opposed to socialism/capitalism) will allow the DLP to run in a swag of lower house seats that it hasnt attempted in years.

    I believe that an increased vote accros the board will see John Kavangh (Moreland Cr) actually increase the vote in this seat and is a real chance of taking it out.

  3. I do think that most of the time the number of people voting DLP but meaning to vote ALP is negligible but it appears to have been be significant because of the DLP`s fortunate position on the ballot paper, that this was their highest polling region by almost double, the only region they got over the 4% deposit hurdle and the only region they out polled FF.

  4. Tony,

    Will the DLP have the same preferences deals that assisted in the federal and last victorian election?

    IN

  5. The Coalition and ALP are certain to put the DLP ahead of each other and one would be disposed to think that FF would put them above anyone else and the other preferences are anyone`s guess.

  6. Tom the First and Best
    Posted October 21, 2010 at 5:43 PM
    I do think that most of the time the number of people voting DLP but meaning to vote ALP is negligible but it appears to have been be significant because of the DLP`s fortunate position on the ballot paper, that this was their highest polling region by almost double, the only region they got over the 4% deposit hurdle and the only region they out polled FF.

    It might be that or it might simply be that the DLP polls strongest in ALP strongholds. With the added presence this will no doubt add to the vote this time around.
    I will be visiting Victoria on the weekend and will get insight into how things are progressing. I was shocked at the number of applicants want to stand though.

    Imaginative Nickname
    Posted October 21, 2010 at 8:46 PM
    Tony,

    Will the DLP have the same preferences deals that assisted in the federal and last victorian election?

    IN

    No one ever knows what the deals are until very close to the election. I have on doubt that the Vics would be involved in meetings with those parties and others.

  7. In Western Metro where the ALP polled more strongly the DLP got 1.08%. The Northern Metro Result was almost certainly an anomaly because of the ballot paper position.

  8. Tom the First and Best
    Posted November 8, 2010 at 7:39 PM
    In Western Metro where the ALP polled more strongly the DLP got 1.08%. The Northern Metro Result was almost certainly an anomaly because of the ballot paper position.

    In 2006 the DLP did stand anywhere near the amount candidates they are running this time around. On top of that they are in the perfect position to gain the protest votes from both the ALP and the Coalition (over greens preference deals). Both the coalition and the ALP have been warned from their supporters and Unions that this may be the case. (Its great to see Unions once again attending DLP fund raisers etc)
    The increase in the Senate vote of over 1% and the attention their new Senate Elect gained has woken people up to the fact that the DLP are a real chance in taking out up to 4 seats.
    This is one of those seats.
    I’m not yet sure of the exact number of candidates the DLP are running this time around but it will be in excess of 70 across the State. Although I cant see the DLP winning any lower house seats I have heard that many will gain their 4% and a couple may reach as high as 7-8%.

  9. and the attention their new Senate Elect gained

    What attention? I can only find one news article featuring the guy, and that’s a brief quote in the Ballarat Courier. He won’t get much attention until next July, when he actually becomes a senator.

  10. Bird of paradox
    Posted November 9, 2010 at 6:18 PM
    and the attention their new Senate Elect gained

    What attention? I can only find one news article featuring the guy, and that’s a brief quote in the Ballarat Courier. He won’t get much attention until next July, when he actually becomes a senator.

    You must be one of the many that rely on channel 9 news.
    As they used to say “nine told me so”‘

  11. NORTHERN METRO
    ================
    The VEC due to a lack of due diligence resulted in doggy data being feed into their computerised count. There was no check or verification to ensure that the number of votes recorded reconciled with the number of ballot papers issued prior to the solution of the election results. we are told that the VEC will produce a reconciliation report prior to the count but has yet to provide a sample copy of what this report will look like and what information it will contain. In 2006 the VEC failed to provided copies of the preference data files to scrutineers., This information was only made available following an FOI application and even then they only provided information related to the final count not the preliminary counts. Data files had been overwritten without backup copies being made. Even though copies of the information had been requested prior to the commencement of the count

  12. Tony, the fact that you have a senate-elect means nothing to your prospects. Having an MLC has a slight bearing on him being re-elected, but now you have to beat a combined Lib/Nat ticket to retain that seat.

    The reason your pecious senator means squat is because Fielding did not help FF prospects in Victoria, and he was heard. His vote was needed. The DLP vote is inconsequential.

Comments are closed.