- Greg Barber (GRN), since 2006.
- Nazih Elasmar (ALP), since 2006.
- Matthew Guy (LIB), since 2006.
- Jenny Mikakos (ALP), since 2006. Previously MLC for Jika Jika Province 1999-2006.
- Nathan Murphy (ALP), since 2010*.
*Murphy was elected to fill a vacancy created by the resignation of Theo Theophanous, who had held his seat since 2006, and had previously been an MLC for Jika Jika 1988-2006.
All eleven seats are held by the ALP. In four of those seats, the main challenger to the ALP is the Greens. Three of those seats are considered marginal, with the ALP’s margin in Northcote a larger 8.5%. In the seven ALP vs Liberal contests, four of them are held by the ALP by margins of over 20%. The strongest Liberal seat in the region is Yan Yean, which is held by the ALP by 7.9%.
|Democratic Labor Party||18,581||5.16||0.3096|
|Joseph Kaliniy (Group D)||1,634||0.45||0.0272|
Final primary vote figures in Northern Metropolitan produced a fairly clear-cut result. Four seats were decided on primary votes, and the ALP was so close to a third quota to make it very hard for another party to compete, while the Greens and Liberal surplus were too small to compete.
The Democratic Labor Party managed to build up substantial preferences that could have netted them a seat if the ALP vote had been lower. Indeed, the original count produced a result of two Labor MLCs and a Democratic Labor Party MLC. The DLP gained preferences from People Power and Family First, which allowed them to overtake the second Liberal candidate.
Preferences from minor parties gave the ALP their third quota, thus finishing the count, before Liberal ticket votes could be distributed. However these would have given the DLP roughly 88% of a quota at the end of the count.
Sitting Greens MLC Greg Barber is running for re-election. The Democratic Labor Party is running Moreland councillor John Kavanagh, the brother of sitting DLP MLC Peter Kavanagh. No information on other candidates.
The ALP is clearly dominant in Northern Metropolitan. It is also the strongest region for the Greens, who polled almost three quarters of the Liberal vote and have chances of winning four Legislative Assembly seats in the region.
The first two Labor seats are solid, as is the sole Liberal seat. There would have to be a substantial swing against the Greens to threaten Barber’s seat. With those four seats relatively safe, the third Labor seat will be the key seat in this region.
The Democratic Labor Party polled almost 40% of a quota in 2006. If they can maintain a solid primary vote and pick up minor party preferences sufficient to overtake the Liberal Party, they could gain a seat off the ALP, who may be vulnerable to a declining vote.
Having said that, an increased Liberal vote would likely kill off any chance of a DLP victory. Combining the final vote for the DLP and Liberal Party puts the Liberals only 2000 votes short of defeating the third Labor candidate. A strong preference flow from the DLP and other minor parties to the Liberal Party and a relatively small swing from the ALP to the Liberals could see the ALP lose their third seat to the Liberals.
While the Greens appear likely to increase their vote, they are a long way from winning a second seat. To do that the second Green would need to overtake the third Labor candidate, allowing the Greens to defeat the second Liberal on Labor preferences. The Greens are a long way from reaching that point.