2025 federal election guide now live

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The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.

I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.

We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.

The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.

Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.

I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.

You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:

One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.

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163 COMMENTS

  1. @maxim yea and now they are winning them opinion polls usually have a bias towards the left not the right since people are reluctant to tell the truth to pollsters. look at the us election they all said it was going to be close but Harris was never even in contention. the fact the polls are going against a left labor govt is pretty obvious on the trend

  2. @ john most times opinion polls tend to be reasonable accurate except polls of individual electorates. There is no left wing bias in the polls.. they are at best a snapshot at the time they are taken. Hoq

  3. Last two elections there has been at least a slight leftward bias no? Wonder if the increasing trend of lower information/propensity voters shifting right has any impact there or if the pollstars are on top of maintaining their methodology.

  4. How things are interpreted depends upon the reasoning. A cost of living crisis which will skittle Labor and potentially take safe seats in its wake?
    Or people are dissatisfied but waiting and hoping for the choice which allows them to vote against the liberals?
    Dutton probably travels well in Queensland but there are few seats the lnp can win extra there
    Most other states besides SA.. possible alp gain there. ; are hopes that small target works and Morrison is forgotten.
    But Dutton was an important part of the Morrison govt and his actions be tenders call into question at least his judgement.
    The Dutton opposition has a tail as long a dinosaur who for the most part are not up to the job. Some relatively competent ” moderates” have retired and the worst such as Pitt and Robert have gone.

  5. It is said govts lose rather then opposition’s win. Has Labor done enough to lose probably not. Are the lnp up to government no… that Dutton is willing to be part of the nuclear Con shows he is no
    Knight in shining armour but rather another run of the mill politican who will do what ever it takes.

  6. If Labor and their supporters continue to try and focus in on Dutton being the weak point of the Coalition they risk losing tbh, he has been criminally underestimated from where he was when he took the leadership but they are hollow on policy and very thin on front bench talent

  7. @mick its not a bias perse but it usualyy skewed towards labor due to the nature of what people will admit to a pollster vs what they really do at the voting booth. polls arent always accurate and their is a margin of error which usually falls more often to the labor side of the fence. qld Blair and Moreton are probably considered in play and id say the Liberals are worried about Leichardt as ive previously stated we have no data on how an election without Warren Entsch and a non high tide election specifically in qld for labor will work given that the last time this occured was 1993. you have to go back to 1984 to the last time labor took ground from either of the coalition parties. 2007 was an outlier in the fact you had Kevin07 from queensland in a high tide election for labor and no entsch running. 2 pf three factors wont be in play this time. the last election was basically lost because of morrison. He alienated 3 key groups Chinese, small L liberals and WA voters. the only seat lost outside these 3 key areas was Robertson and thats a Bellwether which they barely won. and it was a 3 term govt whose problems had built up. and labor barely managed a majority. with morrison gone and albanese on the nose pretty much everywhere they will recover significantly. right now noone cares about morrison or the fact dutton was in that govt. every new opposition leader is usually a remnat or the last government even albanese was a key player in the rudd/gillard years but noone brings that up anymore. noone other then the hardcore rusted on labor voters probably agree with you Dutton and his team are seen as a credible alternative and polling shows that Dutton has come from “unelectable” 3 years ago to being on the verge of toppling a first term government. Has Labor done enough to lose abosolutely and again the polls show that. Is the Lnp up to govt well the majority of people seem to think so. Nclear is not a con it a reliable baseload power source and most people agree with that policy the only people who oppose it are labor and their ridiculous idea we can power this country on renewables alone. They oppose it because it wasnt their idea and they are afraid it gonna work and that it gonna show thir idea wasnt as good.

    @Maxim if they focus on Dutton they will lose because they arent putting up idas and they are playing the man not the ball. Its just like trying to run a campaign against the oppositions star player instead of tryng to kick the ball and score points.

  8. Hypothetical question/ scenario

    There are currently 15 elected cross benchers running for reelection – 11 independents (incl Katter) plus 4 Greens.

    Discounting Tink, Gee, Broadbent, Goodenough.

    Question: realistically how big could the cross bench be?

    None of the 15 above lose.
    Greens win Wills, Macnamara, Richmond – 7 for them – 11+4+3=18
    Gee wins – 11+7+1=19

    Quite possible Indie wins: Boele in Bradfield, Dyson in Wannon, George in Franklin
    12+7+3=22

    Any others? Green or Indie really in with a chance? That 22 is a lot but feasible.

  9. That 22 is a ceiling that I’d say is feasible but unlikely, I think it’ll be a crossbench of maybe 17-18.

  10. @redistributed. Whilst I admire your enthusiasm I disagree. This will be foremost an election based on economics more than normal just as the US was. Predominantly a cost of living. I think that the libs were caught sleeping and the independents will at best go back 1. The Greens will probably go backwards. They might win Wills but are in big danger in QLD.

  11. Dutton’s latest
    We will cut government expenditure
    56k public servants? Just cut labor’s waste? Tell you about the details after the election. This is absolutely rubbish.

  12. @redistriuted not entirely true greens will likely lose Ryan and Brisbane. Chaney in Curtin is under water according to the latest poll i hear and Daniel in Goldstein as well as Ryan in Kooyong will face a strong challenge. Il be doing my best to help unseat haines in Indi though i think she wil old it tbh. while the greens will win macnamara in my opinion Labor will likely just hold Wills and i reckon the coalition could give the greens a run for their money in Richmond especially if the libs put ain a candiadte too althouygh i hear the nats just put Kimberley Hone up again in Richmond so i dont think they will. Gee is a wildcard so im not ready to call Calare. Dyson wont win Wannon. but Boele is a chance in Bradfield and i think george could upset in Franklin too. Jessie Price in Bean could also win. And then theres western Sydney seats like Barton, McMahon and Blaxland could all elect a minor.

    @mick was thay a typo or are you just peddling misinformation? it was 36k and that was the the amount albo increased it by. yea just like labor promised and inquiry into gender crap and said it would take 100 days. conveniently after the election. labor have also told peple the Nature Positive laws are gone but you can bet your bottom dollar after the elction they will be back why because it risks hurting jobs in WA a key state they need to be returned,

    @darcy just no..

    you can bet once labor are reelected with the greens their Mining and Carbon taxes will be back too.

  13. @Kent there been speculation April 5 is a possible date too. so far he has until the end of today if he wants to steal the March 8 date but that looking unlikely. So then possible dates can be March 15, 22, 29. April 5 & 12. The 19th and 26th are probably out due to easter and Anzac Day respectively. and then all thats left is May 3, 10 and 17.

  14. Sportsbet has just put out some Australian Election Odds. Not all but 33 Seats with some interesting odds. Coalition favorites to take off ALP Lyons, Bennelong, Gilmore, Aston, Chisholm, Deakin Liberal Seat Provisional ALP plus Lingiari. Favorite against Teals Seats Curtin and tie in Mackeller. Favorite in Bradfield, Calare and Cowper. Probably in the next few days will post most seats if not all. Overall Government Odds Coalition 1.53 ALP 2.50 which has shorten from 1.72 Coalition last few days. I know some people do not like Sporting Odds but I can say they are nearly always pretty accurate. Just do not mention 2019 Federal Election and to some extent First Trump Presidency.

  15. They will become accurate over time but given those markets were just posted I wouldn’t take them as gospel just yet.

  16. good on the greens in Wills if you think that will flip but im not taking it cause i think Khalil will hold on. im taking the LNP in Ryan at $3.35

  17. interesting anyway i cant see how labor even makes minority. i have both liberal and labor on 68 seats on conservative estimates. libs will get a few more then that most likely and should be able to get enough crossbench support to form govt if they need it

  18. @john
    Think you are a bit optimistic.
    I guess in terms likelihoods
    Alp m8nority
    Liberal m8nority
    Alp majority
    Lib Majority
    I expect the teals could maybe win an extra seat
    And all independents will be relected

  19. @mick not really i think it is you who are too optimistic for labor.
    i was watching a segment the other day and all of the panelists were basically saying albo is delusional if he think s he can get a majority. what he says to the media is to maintain face because if he gives up what chance do they have then. labor will lose the election the only thing that will save him are the teals who really should be voting with their electorates and installing a liberal govt. some people like micheal kroger says he has liberals on 72 seats which id be interested in knowing what seats but i wil guarantee libes will get to 68 at least and the seats i have stated will be won by them. Chaney in Curtin, Broadbent in Monash, Goodenough in Moore, will all lose. im giving Gee half a chance of maybe winning and Mackellar, warringah will be won by the teals. Wentworth even though stronger now for Spender as well as Kooyong and Goldstein are all up for grabs because of the anti semitism and the teals lack of support for the jewish community. though i think Spender will be safe. Labor also faces challenges from teals, independents, greens and muslim voting blocks. labor will get hammered and there seat count will plune. and if you look at the map of electorates under strain across the country some “safe seats” like tangey, swan, cowan, macarthur, blair, rankin, lilley, bruce, werriwa, dunkley, macquarie greenway. all face major challenges on the CoL issue in retaining their seats. Chris Bowen being the person mainly responisble also faces the loss of his seat. they also face teals in Bean and Franklin where thy have low primary votes and could easily lose. Labor are gonna get hammered and I just cant see them even making minority. even if they get an interest rate cut it will be too little too late to help anyone. it might help them just save their asses and get a bare minimum minority but thats about it. I think they will lose macnamara to the greens and likely richmond and possibly wills as well. the only thing holding sydney and grayndler for them is the sitting members plibersek and albo once they retire those seats are gone.

  20. Labor majority is so unlikely, they’d probably have to win Brisbane and Sturt and can only afford to lose a couple of their marginals, I’d say there’s at least 5-6 that they are right up against it to hold

  21. Agree Maxim, in response to Mick above this is how I see the likelihood of different outcomes of the federal election:

    Most likely – Coalition minority
    Potential – Labor minority
    Unlikely – Coalition majority
    Very unlikely – Labor majority.

  22. @maxim labor majority is delusional in my opinion. labors primary vote has gone backwards and the coalition will pick up at least 9 seats from labor. they might win brisbane but i think sturt will recover for the libs. they will also lose macnamara and maybe wills and richmond to the greens. minority is the best they can hope for.

  23. @yoh an

    Most likely – Coalition minority
    Potential – Labor minority
    Possible – Coalition majority
    Delusional – Labor majority

  24. @yoh an there are plenty of seats available for the coalition to make majorrity they only reason i can find they wont get it is those teal seats otherwise id be all but guaranteeing a coalition majority

  25. Hmm, think a lot still has to go right for the coalition to form government.

    For mine they would need to win most of Curtin, Tangney, Hunter, Parramatta, Chisholm and Ryan while hanging onto Bradfield, Wannon, Cowper, Calare and Sturt. None of that is guaranteed at all.

    The Melbourne teal seats, Bruce, Werriwa, Reid, Dobell, Boothby and perhaps Macquarie and Shortland gets them more into majority territory

    Bennelong, Gilmore, Aston, Paterson, Robertson, Lyons, Lingiari, Bullwinkle and McEwen are non-negotiables as well as retaining Calare and Monash with LNP MPs

    Hope I didn’t miss anything there

  26. @maxim in my opinion they will win Curtin, Tangey and Ryan and 50/50 shots at the other 3 and will hold those others. Bruce is an outside chance and I think Werriwa will be a lib gin but havent included it in my 68 as i have a feeling they hold it. the others are outside chances only if they are wanting to punish labor.
    and i agree on all those gains. Calare im giving Gee an outside chance but monash and Moore will be easy retains. they dont necesarily need to get to 76 only to 71-72 in my books to guarantee they will get to minority

  27. Maxim
    Para 1… lib win 1 possibly 0
    Para 2…. lib 0 to 1
    Para 3…. lib 4 perhaps
    That is Max 6
    Labor.minority

  28. @mick keep hoping mick they will win all those in paragrah 3. and have an outside chance at majority. people have their baseball bats out for labor and they are gonna get punished. labor will not only lose seats to the coalition but the greens and maybe ind and minor parties as well. coalition will finish with either more seats or the same as labor

    @maxim also ive moved Blair into the tossup and wouldnt be surprised if the libs do well in Rankin, Moreton and Lilley as well.

  29. Bradfield and Sturt 50/50
    Country. Seats most likely retain lnp
    Moore and Monash 65/35 lib retain
    Mcewen and linguari 65/35 alp
    Work in progress

  30. Curtin teal retain
    Paterson & Robertson alp retain

    John you are close to predicting an almost alp wipe out in Qld. This was
    1975 and 1996.. we are not there.
    Qld most likely status quo.. chance alp
    +3 and also possible lib +1 (Ryan)

  31. Parts of VIC and NSW might have the baseball bats out, but we can’t really go throwing seats like Blair or Moreton into the mix without some more evidence that the swing is on in QLD, LNP position still quite strong in 2022 and I don’t think there’s a home advantage for Dutton particularly like there was for say… Rudd.

    But @Mick – The highly anglo, blue collar and mortgage stressed areas in the Hunter and Central Coast must surely be ground zero for Dutton’s appeal, brave man calling both Paterson and Robertson Labor retains, Robertson is more feasible but there’s not much margin to play with…

  32. @mick Bradfield id give the libs about 70/30 Sturt about 90/10.
    Moore and Monash about 95/5
    MCewen and Lingiari 80/20 on a lib gain in mcewen and about 90/10 in lingiari
    Curtin Lib gain
    Paterson and robertson lib gain
    Labor can maybe win leichardt and brisbane but thats it. Ryan is a lib gain in my books and i wont rule out brisbane either but at the moment il give taht to labor.

    never said anything about a wipeout in qld simply said Blair is a tossup and Libs to do well in Rankin, MOreton and Lilley. Do well doesnt mean win the seat it means get a good swing.

    and heres my reasoning in 2019 in blair the combined right of centre vote was >50% but lack of preference discipline gave labor the seat. in 2022 despite a nation and statewide swing against the LNP. while losing only a fraction of vote share (0.14%) they actualy increaded their primary vote by about 2400 votes. the swing in Blair actually mainly came from ONP which lost about 7% or around 6000 votes. some of which went to UAP and the LDP now LBT part. overall in 2022 the vote split was about 53-47 to the left.

    add to that albo had to intervene to save Neumann from the gender quotas because he feared losing the seat which effectively means the only thing saving the seat is his personal vote. rental stress in Blair is 91% household stress is at 78% and mortgage stress at 66%. that means its not only liberal voters doing it tough but greens and labor voters too. this could tip the seat enough for the lnp to win.

    Lilley and Rankin are also under stress (so is Oxley but thats on a higher margin and iincludes more solid labor territory) add to the fact that Rankin is the Treasurers seat is partly responsible for the current problems and would imagin he will get a decent swing against him but i dont think they will lose either seat.

    Moreton while not under as much stress has just forced out the member due to gender quotas and wil lose any personal vote he had built.

    @maxim the margin in robertson is gonna swing into a liberal one. its lower then paterson but both are experienceing high stress due to CoL.

  33. @john
    You implied close to a wipe out
    -3 of held seats and no gains
    That leaves 2 to 3 alp held
    If I were a betting man I would consider.you created significant arbitrage
    $5 for $95
    Of your more certain picks eg Paterson .Mcewen and linguari. I am more certain of the reverse

  34. Worth keeping in mind – independents & Greens often do well when they first come up for re-election – Ryan, Brisbane & Griffith might be more difficult to win than looks apparent on the basis of national poll figures. Liberals will have to deal with any disgruntlement surfacing at the state Liberal Government

  35. @Doug the LNP is only newly elected and is in its honeymoon period not mention the fact there is a natural disaster taking place and the govt is seen to be acting. Also the disgruntlement is likely more against the federal govt whose lack of action on things like CoL and antisemitism are important issues

  36. What I am seeing from a few vox pops is that the QLD Government is generally doing a good job with the floods, far different from a similar situation with the NSW Govt from a few years ago (2022?).

    Darth Vader is right, you would need Keir Starmer level incompetence to not be in the Honeymoon phase when the Federal election is called.

  37. @mick you obviously have difficulty rading at no point did i state the lnp would gain any of those seats.

    I clearly stated that blair would be a tossup and the would make up ground in the other 3, moreton, lilley and rankin. The redistribution will likely make blair unwinnable in 2028 for labor and the other 3 will be well within range. I suspect they could make up ground in Oxley but havent included that because the redistribution is likely gonna make Oxley unwinnable for the LNP. I also stated labor labor could win Brisbane and possibly Leichardt.

    If the Libs dont win Paterson McEwen and Lingiari i will eat my MAGA hat.

  38. I wouldn’t even try to predict what a redistribution might do in the Brisbane area – by the time it comes around there will be so many seats a long way over or below quota that there will be some wholesale changes. They might even abolish a seat like Moreton and put a new one in somewhere. Who knows – if the government elected in 2025 doesn’t last long – frankly that can’t be ruled out – a Queensland redistribution might get pushed even further away.

  39. @redistributed it will begin as soon as the new parliament sits. Once it starts it wont stop it will only be paused. if you look at the figures in the gazetted enrollment. Grffith is the only one thats at quota so should be left untouched. bonner would strip offf parts of moreton. which would then take parts of Oxley and in my opinion can take the parts of Brisbane from Rankin as well along the Logan and Gateway Motorways. Oxley would move further into Ipswich from Blair. Bowman can remain nchanged too.McPherson and Moncrieff can canel each other out. Rankin take bits of Logan from Forde. Wright can then take faddens excess. Groom then take the Lockyer Valler from Wright. maranoa moves further into toowoomba. Ryan -> Brisbane -> Lilley -> Petrie. Dickson -> Fisher. Fisher & Fairfax then fix up blair. its all just basic modelling based on the Current numbers though. projected numbers may change it.

  40. new redbribridge poll 51.5-48.5 to the libs. i think its only a matter of time before the libs crack 52-48 on a newspoll thereby burying any hope f a labor minority govt

  41. My prediction for the election Pre-Feb 18th edition. I’ll be posting my predictions at the end of each month leading up to the Federal election to see how it’s changed since Dec 2024 (from when I posted my predictions online in Pollbludger; wanted to post it here too but I don’t think Tally Room will like long winded posts so I’ve tried to make it concise)

    Seat Count:
    ALP: 64 (-14)
    LNP: 70 (+16)
    GRN: 5 (+1)
    KAT: 1
    CA: 1
    WSC: 1 (+1); This is just Dai Le retaining Fowler, but changing party registration from IND to Western Sydney Community
    IND: 8 (-5); I’m counting Ian Goodenough here due to his Liberal party membership lapsing back in Jan.

    Specifics:
    – Coalition gain Tangney, Lyons, Gilmore, Patterson, Robertson, Bennelong, McEwen, Aston, Chisholm, Dunkley and Lingiari from Labor whilst gaining Bullwinkel from nominal Labor hold
    – Coalition regains Calare, Monash and Moore from renegade former Coalition members
    – Coalition gains Ryan from Greens
    – Greens gains Wills and Macnamara from Labor

    Result: Liberal Minority Government, with vote of confidence from Katter, Sharkie, Le, Haines and Spender

    Changes since Dec 2024: Bradfield from IND gain to LIB retain due to Kapterian’s nomination, Chisholm from ALP retain to LIB gain due to 5% swing to LIB in VIC + invisible MP
    Changes since Jan 2025: Dunkley and Robertson from ALP retain to LIB gain, both due to worsening of polls; I don’t think Gordon Reid’s popularity within the electorate will save him. For Dunkley, there’s a rematch in a state with a 5% swing towards Liberals.

    Hunter, Holt, Bruce and Hawke are next on the chopping block imo, but I’ll reevaluate depending on how polling goes + RBA decision on Feb 18.

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