2025 federal election guide now live

@John, can you give us your realistic worst case scenario (for LNP) prediction?

I think the worst case scenario for the LNP, realistically, would still be a Labor minority but only needing the Greens for supply & confidence.

So, around 71 ALP & 5 GRN or 72 ALP & 4 GRN seats.

@trent Labor will go shopping with the greens last. Albo would look to the Independents first, teals second and grn if they have no choice

@witness realistically I cant see then ending up on fewer then 64. They may fail to win bullwinkel and Curtin and maybe lose sturt though i don’t think they will but that’s it.

I can’t see the Liberals not winning Bullwinkel. It’s a seat they would normally hold and Labor isn’t as popular in Perth as they used to be.

Just a note, I’ve landed in London after a long flight from Perth. I’ll be here for a week, mostly for the North London Derby. This means I’ll be on at odd times, mostly in what is the morning or afternoon in eastern Australia.

Trent
Which are your 5 Greens seats?
I can see the Greens definitely winning Melbourne and Griffith. They also have a very good chance of winning Wills and Macnamara – one gets the feeling that despite Josh Burns best efforts, the Labor vote is going to collapse. Reasonable chance in Richmond and Brisbane could be a three way fight. Ryan is by far the Greens best chance of a loss. So somewhere between 4 and 6.

@Redistributed I disagree. It’s more likely that the Greens will lose Brisbane. Even a tiny against the Greens would make it a Greens seat.

@Trent In that scenario, Albo would likely try to get C+S from the teals instead.

Worst case for liberals is alp majority govt.
More bad news:
Murdoch sold sky.news. peta and Co
We’re told to be honest.

@np its the splitting of the conservative vote that concerns me.

I’m in the USA for another week. I’ve been in Dallas since Friday and heading to Vegas in 12 hours. I’m there until Saturday then I. Off to dc to witness the inauguration of the greatest predisent in history. For the second and final time.

@redistributed I’m willing to give them Melbourne Macnamara and Griffith but I think Khalil can hold on in Will’s… just they will likely lose Ryan and Brisbane and Richmond is a Toss-up and 3 way race

@ mick that’s not happening at least not in the reality we currently occupy

It’s possible that the ALP take 3 out of Casey, Menzies, Deakin, Sturt and Moore while the LNP lose Wannon, Cowper and Bradfield to IND without re-gaining any teal seats and perhaps 5 or less seats flip from Labor to Liberal. Some seats like Aston, Lyons, Bennelong and Bullwinkle just seem very much ripe to go Liberal but I can certainly see them retaining seats like McEwen, Chisholm, Robertson etc. Would be a best case scenario but it’s not unfeasible.

@redistributed:

I think the Greens’ most likely scenario is that they will gain Macnamara and maybe Wills, but lose one of the QLD seats (Brisbane or Ryan).

@maxim they have half a chance in sturt and maybe Moore…. the other three will be liberal retains. Labor cannot hold majority all the polls show they are gonna bleed net seats

@John statewide or national polls are large aggregations (that absolutely might not play out as they are currently showing), when you drill down to the seat level swings are not uniform or always in the same direction. Just look at what happened in Victoria last state election when the Liberals achieved a statewide 3% or so swing to them but they lost seats on net to Labor. Yeah there are places where Federal Labor pretty much can’t defend but don’t assume they can’t snipe certain seats either just because there is a statewide or national trend against them.

For the record I agree and think Labor will do well to take one of those seats on the night but there is a lot of scrutiny coming for Dutton that he’s been able to duck pretty effectively so far

Last election
Lindsay and La Trobe swung to the liberals

@ john
We’re you referring to the second part of my post

@Maxim while theoretically it is on paper possible for independents to win the three aforementioned seats, and is very possible in the case of Bradfield, I doubt that Cowper or Wannon will fall.

I grew up in the seat of Lyne which is to the south of Cowper. Lyne is more conservative than it has ever been because it’s now quite a rural seat (even though Port Macquarie is quite a conservative regional city in terms of voting habits). It appears the independent vote is mostly in Coffs Harbour and Bellingen. However, on the state level the entire Mid North Coast (Cowper and Lyne, and most of Page too which is in the Northern Rivers) is safe Nationals seats.

@mick the first part

Bradfield – The LNP selected a moderate on Sat 18-Jan. I suppose it depends how the conservative side takes this (ie: do they undermine, or just get on with the job of getting her elected).

Giselle Kapterian should be a good chance against Nicolette Boele, provided both halves of the NSW Libs join together. Boele has maintained a profile in the electorate since the last election, and often voters reward persistence. The seat did also vote for the Voice.

I think that seat will really come down to whether the NSW Libs continue to squabble or not.

Also, I’m new to this site, so if I’m posting in the wrong area, could someone kindly let me know please. Couldn’t find a specific NSW seat thread. Cheers.

@PA firstly welcome. Try the bradfield thread.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2025/bradfield2025

Thankyou John, & will do.
Bit of a trick navigating around, but I’ll get there. CHeers.

polling seems to only getting worse for Albo. Can’t see him even making it to minority now. Peter Dutton to achieve the impossible and keeping Albo and Labor to one term.

News from the ACT Senate race – the liberal party here is a schemozzle – Branch is broke, motions moved against the Senate candidate for all sorts of issues. Cricketbatgate is a thing. You can take it to the bank – Pocock will hold his seat as will Gallagher. Liberals can forget the ACT for the foreseeable future.

labor is in all sorts of trouble. the pm hasnt been able to reset over the holidays and dutton and the liberals will go into the election as fvourites to form govt

I think Labor will lose at least 8-9 seats to the Liberals and 2 to the Greens. The Greens could lose at least 1 of their Brisbane-based seats to the Liberals.

That’ll reduce Labor’s seat count to around 66 and increase the Liberals’ seat count to around 65, if I’m counting correctly (and I’m excluding Menzies as being a Liberal retain rather than notional gain).

That’s really a starting point, it could get worse if the bats are really out in Victoria and seats like Hawke & Holt fall as well (I haven’t included them in the above prediction), the Liberals will clearly form minority government.

I don’t think Jacinta Allan would be complaining too much about Victorians taking their bats to federal Labor this year to be honest. A Dutton-led federal government will only help Victorian Labor recover some support (at least enough to prevent the Liberals winning 17 seats) before 2026.

@trent im giving the following seats.

Liberals to gain Robertson, Paterson, Bennelong, Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons, Tangey, Aston and McEwen from Labor. They will pickup the new seat of Bullwinkel. they should win Ryan from the Greens and Curtin from the Teal. They will hold Monash as well. That puts the Liberals on 67 at minimum.

Labor will likely lose Macnamara to the Greens but have a good shot at winning Brisbane from the Greens. That reduces Labor to 68 when you include the loss of Higgins through abolition.

hoever labor are on the nose and a whole string of seats in VIC and NSw are vunerable. seats like Wills (greens), Hawke, Holt, Bruce, Dunkley, Hawke, Chisholm, Hunter, Shortland, Dobell, Richmond (greens/coalition), Macquarie, Parramatta, McMahon (Carbone), Blaxland (ind), Werriwa, Barton (ind labor), Macarthur (allegedly), Whitlam and Eden-Monaro are all vunerable. In other states and territories places like Bean, Solomon, Boothby, Blair are possibly up or grabs. Other seats like Swan, Pearce, Hasluck and Cowan in WA probably arent vunerable enough to fall this time around.

Labor will likely lose a few of the lower hanging seats in vic and nsw but certainly not all and i dont think dutton can get to 76 in one go especially without the teal seats

@ john
Yr first group possible
Yr second group highly unlikely

@mick yes that why they are stated as such

Yeah the set of of seats you had in the first group was pretty much exactly where I got my 8-9 from as well.

I think they’ll hold most of that second lot but if the bats are really out in Victoria then Hawke, Holt & Chisholm would be the most likely to fall. Hawke & Holt because of their location & demographics being where I expect the swings to be, and Chisholm just because of the low margin (but a smaller swing).

Agree that the Libs could pick up Ryan, and Brisbane could be won by Labor, but I think the Greens will win both Macnamara and Wills.

So the Greens could end up on the same seat count – 4 – but instead of 3 QLD & 1 VIC it would be 3 VIC and 1 QLD. But if they hold either Ryan or Brisbane, and I think they will probably hold one of them, I expect they’ll probably increase to 5 seats.

@John @Trent
Fair assessment of where things are at. This is looking to be a far closer election than anyone expected in mid 2022.

If Labor can run a good sandbagging campaign in New South Wales and Victoria and keep their losses to 7 or 8 seats to stay above 70, I think that’ll be a good result for them. But it’s just as likely for the Coalition pick up a slew of outer suburban seats that put them above 70 and into minority government.

Probably more likely is the weird zone with both majors in the 60s and a 15 to 20 seat crossbench. If Dutton can get more seats than Albanese then I think that will be a victory for him, however he may fall short of a Labor + Greens combined total which might still give Albanese the stronger negotiating position.

Of course, the big wildcard is the Teal seats. I don’t think past history gives much of an indication whether 2022 was a once-off thing or if the movement will continue to grow. There’s a strong chance seats like Bradfield, Calare, Cowper and Wannon will want to join this club, but we really won’t know until the votes are counted. Overall, this is the biggest vulnerability for Dutton’s campaign.

Good summary of the general state of play in the ABC todaya suggesting April 12 as possible ‘early’ election date:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-28/federal-election-when-called-and-where-will-it-be-fought/104825066

Interesting that the article mentions Moreton but not Blair in QLD

@trent i think they will lose both brisbane and ryan due to recent poor polling putting their vote down. in Brisbane and Ryan they rely on labor preferences to get over the line. in Brisbane there is not much difference between the Labor and Green vote for 2nd place and the greens barely beat labor into 2nd a small drop would put them back into third and the labor candidate would get elected on strong green preferences. in ryan they are abit further ahead and will still likely finish second however reduced vote would likely see the lnp slide in and win the seat. the same reduced vote in vic would likely still apply however in macnamara labor are essentially not too far ahead and effectively rely of jewish votes to keep them in the 2pp against the libs due to their stance on israel and palestine i cant see those jewish voters especialy in caufielf rewarding labor for their lack of support and switiching to the libs thereby pushing them out and having the greens win on labor preferences unless the libs can get enough to beat the greens. I think wills will be close but i think khalil may just hold on as i cant see a 4.6% swing to the greens especially since the libs and other right wing parties will preference labor. the other seat is richmond in nsw its a 3 way contest and i think justine elliot is running out of road.

@Angas bradfield is likely their strongest chance with paul flethcer retriing however the libs have selected a moderate woman so they should hold on. Calare, Cowper and Wannon should relected coalition candidates however i think cowper could be interestginnd might end up being a Gee v Nats contest.

@maxim i cant see the lnp getting the swing required in blair this time around especially since albo protected neumann from the gender quotas in order to save the seat and i think it will. but it will become more marginal. the upcoming qld redistribution will likely notionally flip that seat due to the fact its could lose up to 20% of its teritory which will come from labor voting ipswich and the libs will win it in 2028. moreton is vunerable because perrett as basically forced to retire due to gender quotas and the loss of incumbency will hurt labor but will it be enough?

the other thing that will hurt labor in qld is the axing o over 20 projects from the funding priority list. i imagine labor has decided since losing the state election there is no point in diverting money to seats they neither control or cant win.

I don’t see Blair flipping either – but apart from the incumbent getting quota’d out of Moreton what would drive the double digit swing there while Blair only moves 5% at most?

Like Trent, I agree that Labor is in serious trouble in the first part of John’s list.
I think the Greens could lose Ryan (to the Libs) and Brisbane (to Labor). However, Labor are in serious trouble in Wills and Macnamara and Justine Elliott was possibly saved by a poor National candidate last time. Labor in serious trouble of losing votes to left and right and coming third.
I would put Chisholm in the list where Labor is in trouble and would watch both Bruce and Parramatta. Solomon might be a chance too. However, unsure about Curtin – could be very close
I think the Libs could pick up Kooyong as well – by this time in 2022, there were lots of corflutes out for Monique Ryan – haven’t seen one yet. Maybe not a good sample but the enthusiasm might not be there.

In summary, Libs on 70 or so and Greens on five a real possibility. With the rest of the cross bench on 10 – that leaves Labor with about 65. All mighty close.

With those types of numbers, there will be parliamentary trench warfare whoever forms government. Could 2025 be our first two election year? And unlikely to be grounds for a DD.

In addition, Moreton might be a surprise – forced retirement of long serving Labor MP not a good look.

While Bruce is on a smaller margin than Holt, I’d probably say Holt is more at risk because I think Julian Hill is pretty popular so will have an above average incumbency advantage, and also Holt is more consistently made up of the type of growth areas that I think the Liberals will do well in. Whereas I don’t see suburbs like Dandenong, Noble Park, Doveton and Hallam swinging anywhere near as much to the Liberals as places like Lynbrook and Cranbourne.

It’s a similar situation to the outer north. I think the hard swings to the Liberals will occur in places like Craigieburn & Greenvale, not so much in Glenroy and Broadmeadows.

Is Julian Hill actually popular on the ground in his electorate or just with Tik Tok Gen Zers who live elsewhere?

Trent
Bruce has moved more into Berwick and the margin is reduced. Also last time the Liberal Democrats had the donkey and polled quite well so the Lib vote might be a bit understated. Lib candidate has an Afghan ethnic background so might do OK round Dandenong. And another also – it now overlaps with Brad Battin’s seat of Berwick so he could give the campaign some heft. I think there could be more to see here than first meets the eye. It is on my ‘one to watch’ list and would not be surprised if there was an upset.

I was factoring in the reduced margin, but you make good points about the Libs candidate and overlapping Battin’s seat, and Maxim could be right too that maybe Julian Hill is popular more broadly on social media than specifically in his own seat.

@maxim an incumbent mps personal vote can vary and a i think the lnp may get close in moreton. a good result in 2025 could set them up to win the seat in 2028 if they are still in opposition. as for the upcoming redistribution it may help or hinder the lnp vote depending on what way the aec move the boundary. it will likely shed some territory to bonner and i intend to suggest it take in parts of rankin specifically parts of the city of brisbane from rankin along the logan and gateway motorway and then along bluner creek from oxley but if they go alon g the northern liberal parts of oxley near the ipswich motorway moreton could go lnp in 2028.

@redistributed i think labor may just scrape through in wills this time around due to the fact the greens are coming off a high and there vote hasnt really moved from 2022. Chisholm will be mighty close due to the demographics maybe just saving labor which is why i havent included it in my list of gains for the libs. Parramatta i think will be the same with a razor thin save for labor but it could flip. Bruce i think will be close to despite the 5% margin. Im prety confident the libs will topple Chaney in WA though. In regards to Richmond i do believe Elliot will likely lose her seat but atm im not ready to call who to. and if the Lbs run in addition to nats it could make it further complicated and i reckon could win the seat in a Lib v Grn contest. A Nat v Grn would be interesting if the nats can put up a decent candidate as that labor vote will split left and right. having the libs run might give the coalition the edge since they are seen as less conservative then the nats and a moderate could pick up enough of that labor vote to win the seat back for the coalition. Bruce is likely to flip in 2028 if it doesnt in 2025 the only thing holding it for labor in 2025 will be the strong vote in Dandenong which will eventually be lost to either Hotham or Isaacs. Bruce and Hlt will oth be won in 2028 by the libs if they are still in opposition.

Noting my post above – talking about 2028 may be a tad premature. If it a minority government – of either side – it will be a wild but extremely interesting ride. Not convinced a minority government will make it to 2028 possibly not 2026 – that would be wild!

Yeah there’s no reason that Labor couldn’t improve their position by 2028 either, particularly if macro-economic conditions improve while they are in government, might prove that Dutton has a better chance of unseating Labor now.

@redistributed if 2010 is any proof of what happens to a labor greens ind government it would likely repeat. a coalition govt would likely be more stable as they would be dealing with less radical mps. the labor problem is why liberals would be better off stiking to opposition for another three years a whole heap of labor seats would be marginal and dutton could likely get more eats then abbott did in 2013 not to mention the teals siding with labor would be good for the libs in those seats.

@maxim a labor minority govt would absolutely crumble by 2028

If Labor won 72 seats and governed with a couple of teals/independents (perfectly reasonable scenario) they could potentially do it fairly well, there’s plenty of precedent overseas for minority/coalition governments that function ok, plus pretty much every government in Australia is a minority government when you consider the Senate.

The issues really start if they end up on about 66-69 seats and are more or less forced into co-governance with the Greens, that I agree pretty much has no chance of succeeding.

A minority government may force some of the Teals to coalesce into a party so they can get more leverage

Might disappoint voters who specifically wanted someone unaligned to represent them

@maxim i cant see labor winning more then 69 seats if to be honest and to do that they need to win brisbane and hold macnamara. the lnp gains from labor seem pretty certain in my view maybe they can come up the middle in bullwinkel and make it to 70 but thats as about generous as i can be. i think the latest inflation numbers can help retain some other seats which are on the ropes if their is a interest rate reduction in february but i cant see them holding any of the other seats. they could likely form a govt without the greens but they would need basically almost all the crossbench without the greens if they can manage 68-70 seats but anything lower then 68 theye will need the greens.

labor havent won an opinion poll since november so atm i cant see them winning the next election atm im saying liberal minority govt. however if the polls tighten which might happen if the interest rates are reduced in february as expected might help labor claw black some ground but im not sure it will be enough to stop the trend towards peter dutton and the liberal party. there are realistically only 9 seats in nsw that labor can bank as the others are all under threat and on target lists from both the coalition and independents. obviously they wont lose all those seats but the threat is there and some will likely be lost. they wil likely hold at least 8 seats ni wa due to the labor vote being still strong coming off the last federal and state elections. they can should be able to hold at least 2 in the act. all there nt and tas seats are realistically in play. the only real threat in sa is boothby and can hold at least 3 of their qld seats with the prospect of pcking up brisbane. that leaves vic labors strongest state and therefore with the most to lost given recent polling. there are a whole heaps of seats teh libs will be targetting. 14 seats are what would be considered pretty safe but they face a string of challenges from both the libs and the greens in the rest. again they wont lost most of these but they will be facing challenges from the greens, coalition and independents across the country. so we could end u with labor in the low 60s and the libs in the high 60s and still seee a labor minority cobled together from all the combined left wing seats as well as some teals and greens

How many opinion polls did the LNP win leading up to 2019? They didn’t even win the bloody exit poll on the day (which I guess you’d expect with prepoll and postals these days tbf)