To complete my set of election guides for 2024 and 2025, I’ve just finished my guide to the 2025 Western Australian state election.
The guide features profiles of all 59 lower house races and the new first ever statewide upper house election.
The 2021 Western Australian state election was a remarkable election. Labor polled almost 70% of the two-party-preferred vote and almost 60% of the primary vote, winning all but six seats. The result gave them their first every upper house majority, clearing the way to reform the upper house.
Because of the remarkable result in 2021, the pendulum now looks extremely imbalanced. For the conservative parties to form a majority government, they would need to win 25 seats off Labor. A uniform swing of 23.3% would be needed for those 25 seats to fall. This means that a close election contest would involve quite large swings.
The most marginal seats are not necessarily the most interesting. But it’s also not just a matter of assuming a uniform swing – some seats will undoubtedly swing more strongly back towards the conservatives than others, but a close election in the future may not involve exactly the same close races as previous close elections.
Most of the guide is an exclusive for Patreon donors. Sign up for $5 or more per month to access the full guide. If you want a taste, I’ve unlocked three seats:
- Churchlands – Labor’s most marginal seat, a seat that traditionally has always been held by Liberals or conservative independents. Television presenter and lord mayor Basil Zempilas has thrown his hat in the ring for Liberal preselection here.
- Collie-Preston – A Labor seat held by a 23.3% margin, this is Labor’s 25th-most marginal seat against the Liberals or Nationals. The town of Collie has always voted very strongly for Labor, and in 2021 the booths in Collie voted by well over 80% for Labor.
- Mid-West – This seat is a merger of the regional seats of Moore and North West Central, which were two of the four seats won by the Nationals in 2021. Merome Beard won the North West Central by-election in 2022, but last year defected to the Liberal Party. The seat is held by opposition leader Shane Love, but could end up being a contest directly between the two conservative parties. This could be the tip of the iceberg, with the Nationals threatening to also run in traditional Liberal seats in metro areas.
If you click through to the guide you can see an alphabetical list of seats, or a pendulum, with links to every race, or you can use the map below to navigate through to any seat profile.