Churchlands – WA 2025

ALP 1.1%

Incumbent MP
Christine Tonkin, since 2021.

Geography
Inner north of Perth. Churchlands covers the suburbs of Churchlands, Floreat, Glendalough, City Beach, Osborne Park, Wembley Downs, Woodland and parts of Innaloo. Churchlands covers parts of the Cambridge and Stirling council areas.

Redistribution
Churchlands expanded north, taking in Osborne Park and part of Innaloo from Scarborough and losing the remainder of Doubleview from Scarborough.

History
The seat of Churchlands has existed since 1996. The seat was held for an independent for most of that time, and by the Liberal Party from 2013 until 2021.

Churchlands was first won in 1996 by independent MP Liz Constable. Constable had first been elected to parliament at the 1991 Floreat by-election. She was a former member of the Liberal Party who had resigned to run for the by-election.

Constable was re-elected to parliament in 1993, 1996, 2001, 2005 and 2008, and became a minister in the Liberal-led government after the 2008 election. Constable retired at the 2013 election.

Liberal candidate Sean L’Estrange was elected to represent Churchlands in 2013, and he was re-elected in 2017.

L’Estrange lost his seat to Labor candidate Christine Tonkin, who won by the smallest margin in the state.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Churchlands is a very conservative seat, and the area has traditionally been held either by the Liberal Party or by an independent. If Labor is at all competitive here in 2025, that suggests that the Liberal Party are not making much of a recovery.

2021 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Sean L’Estrange Liberal 11,087 43.9 -9.2 43.6
Christine Tonkin Labor 9,938 39.4 +15.8 40.0
Mark Twiss Greens 2,640 10.5 -3.6 10.2
Jim Bivoltsis Independent 714 2.8 -1.3 2.6
Ray Moran Australian Christians 394 1.6 -0.5 1.5
L Pearce No Mandatory Vaccination 320 1.3 +1.3 1.3
Alexandra Farsalas WAxit 146 0.6 -0.9 0.6
Others 0.3
Informal 650 2.5

2021 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Christine Tonkin Labor 12,821 50.8 +12.5 51.1
Sean L’Estrange Liberal 12,413 49.2 -12.5 48.9

Booth breakdown

Polling places have been split into three parts: central, east and west.

Labor won 58.5% of the two-party-preferred vote in the east. The Liberal Party won 53.1% in the west and 53.6% in the centre.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.4% in the centre to 14% in the east.

Voter group GRN 2PP % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Central 9.4 46.4 4,593 17.4
East 14.0 58.5 3,925 14.9
West 11.1 46.9 2,838 10.8
Pre-poll 8.4 52.3 8,082 30.6
Other votes 10.3 50.6 6,943 26.3

Election results in Churchlands at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

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11 COMMENTS

  1. I predicted that when the guide was released, this seat would be unlocked. Thanks!

    Anyway, I predict a very big swing to the Liberals here and an easy Liberal gain.

  2. Agree Nether Portal, especially if the Liberals do end up nominating ‘star’ candidate and current Perth Mayor Basil Zempilas.

  3. He won’t be premier like Newman, people across Australia remember Campbell Newman being a 1-term lord mayor premier. They won’t do the same mistake in WA. If they do, they will be thrashed. Wouldn’t be surprised if he is tied to the ”gang”

    But of course this will be a Liberal gain, but it will be less than the 14% margin they held it in 2017, I suspect around 10%

    Surely the Liberals cannot be this stupid making him leader. the Project failed in QLD. What makes them think it will work here? I know allot of young people in WA who would never vote for him as leader. and I wouldn’t call them particularly ”left”

  4. The conservatives need a 12% swing towards them which is unlikely to happen, especially with someone so on the nose as basil. Not many people like him except stokes.

  5. @ Vyonne They only need a swing of +0.9, but I can see how you’ve jumbled the numbers up.

    Anyway, this seat is basically a guaranteed Liberal pickup. Maybe an Independent could shake things up but otherwise there’s nothing to see here.

  6. I think he means around a 12% swing to revert it back to its 2017 margin which I can agree it won’t. Labor will win close to 60% TPP statewide at the next election with this seat going Liberal but it will be in the “Reasonably Safe” or “Safe” category rather than “Very Safe” margin.

  7. The Liberals will gain this but they may focus a lot on seats where they can get huge swings like Albany, Bunbury, Dawesville and Mandurah.

  8. @daniel t while I won’t comment on the tpp I reckon the libs and cats will get 13 seats extra between them. While not enough to form govt it’s puts them in a far more effective place to challenge for 2029. Labor will also lose control of the upper house

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