Batman Archive

19

Batman 2018 – the map tells the story

I love a good electoral map, that can tell a story about how a seat’s population votes in different ways and how the balance of those communities decides who wins an election. Batman has produced a fascinating map at recent elections, with the Greens dominating south of Bell Street while Labor rules the roost to the north.

The question at this election was whether the Greens could breach Bell Street and take more of the vote north of the road. The answer is: yes, they can. But they did so while losing support in their heartland, and the swing to Labor in the south was stronger than the Greens swing in the north.

The Greens gained swings in a majority of booths north of Bell Street, but most of the swings were small. The biggest swings took place at the northern fringe of the electorate in suburbs like Bundoora and Reservoir.

But they were dwarfed by Labor swings in the south – swings of 7% in the Thornbury area, and swings of 8% and 11% in Northcote.

This map shows the swings to Labor or the Greens across Batman:

I feel like this swing map is one of the most illuminating electoral maps I have ever made, and can be interpreted in many ways to tell the story of this by-election: Labor’s shift to the left from Feeney to Kearney, the Greens’ concerted push into the north and efforts to court more conservative voters with their last-minute message on dividend imputation, and a more equalised vote, with less difference between the strongest Labor and Greens areas.

Labor defeated the Greens by just 1% in 2016, so this differential swing was enough to make a big difference at this by-election.

This by-election hasn’t erased the gap between the north and the south. The Greens still won most booths south of Bell Street, and Labor won all but one booth north of this line.

To finish this post, here is the map showing the two-candidate-preferred vote for the winning party at each booth. You can compare this to the 2016 result here.

3

Batman/SA election night live

Batman by-election results

CandidatePartyPrimaryPrimary %Swing2PP votes2PP %2PP Swing
Yvonne GentleRise Up Australia18952.562.56
Ged KearneyLabor3122642.228.013948353.382.1
Alex BhathalGreens3047041.195.573448346.62-2.1
Kevin BaileyConservatives47246.396.39
Tegan BurnsPeople’s Party3580.480.48
Debbie RobinsonLiberty Alliance9571.291.29
Teresa Van LieshoutIndependent8751.181.18
Adrian WhiteheadIndependent6170.830.83
Mark McDonaldSustainable Australia73711
Miranda SmithAnimal Justice21072.851.42

Primary booths reporting: 44/52
2CP booths reporting: 44/52
Last updated at: 23:06

11:23pm – As for South Australia, the Liberal Party has won government, almost certainly with a majority. There is, however, a handful of seats still in play. The Liberal Party could win as many as 26 seats, but is leading in 25.

The upper house will see the major parties and the Greens hold steady, while the rest of the crossbench shifts. The Dignity Party has lost their sole seat, while the Conservatives have lost one of the two seats they inherited from Family First, with both those seats going to SA Best. The new government will need either SA Best or the Greens to pass legislation, in addition to the other party, or one of the other two members. One of these members, John Darley, was allied with Nick Xenophon when he succeeded Xenophon in the upper house in 2007 and when he won re-election in 2014.

11:19pm – I’m going to finish up this liveblog now, with a summary of each election. Firstly, Batman.

I’ll be back in a few minutes with a separate post showing the maps for Batman, but the quick summary is that we are still waiting for some pre-poll votes, as well as quite a lot of postal votes, but they hold no hope for the Greens. On current numbers, Ged Kearney has gained a 2.1% swing to Labor.

There was a very clear trend where the Greens gained small swings in northern booths, while Labor gained large swings at the southern end, including a gobsmacking 34% swing in Northcote West. We just received the result from the Northcote pre-poll booth, which produced a 6.7% swing to Labor.

10:27pm – Current numbers suggest that Labor and Liberal will each maintain their four upper house seats, with two SA Best members and one Green. So that’s a loss for Dignity Party’s Kelly Vincent and the Conservatives’ Robert Brokenshire.

10:04pm – We’ve now got the votes in the Thornbury pre-poll in the centre of Batman, with Labor gaining a swing of 2.8% in that booth. This has properly shut the door on the Greens there.

10:01pm – So there are 23 seats which are locked on for the Liberal Party, with them looking good to win Newland. They are behind, but still with a shot, in Mawson, while Heysen is up in the air. So they could end up on as many as 26 seats. Even if they don’t win any of these seats, the independent MP in Mount Gambier should give them the numbers they need.

9:58pm – If you’ve found this analysis useful, tonight and throughout the campaign, maybe you could consider signing up as a patron?

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9:31pm – I’ve been focusing on analysing data at the Guardian liveblog but here’s where things stand at 9:30:

  • Labor looks set to win the Batman by-election with a swing of over 1%. We’ve just started receiving pre-poll votes, but there’s no evidence of a shift in the vote.
  • The Liberal Party look set to win a majority in the South Australian election, with a few seats just firming up now. SA Best may not win any seats, with only one seat still in play for the third party.

7:41pm – Things don’t look good for Alex Bhathal and the Greens in Batman. Nearly every booth is swinging to Labor after preferences, with some large swings in southern booths.

7:11pm – After three booths, the swing to the Greens after preferences is 0.88%.

7:07pm – First three booths for the Greens in Batman include two large booths in Labor-friendly Reservoir. Overall the Greens vote is up 8.9%, while Labor is up 2.2%.

6:38pm – And polls have now closed in South Australia. Still no data from Batman.

6:00pm – Polls have just closed in the by-election for the federal seat of Batman in Melbourne’s inner north. Polls will close in half an hour for the South Australian state election, with polls closing in three hours in the lower-profile Cottesloe state by-election in Perth. I’ll be using AEDT times for my coverage tonight. I’ll also be dropping in to the Guardian’s election night liveblog.

For the Batman by-election I will be posting overall results (top of the page), which include swings based on the vote in 2016 at the booths reported so far. This can be extrapolated to determine projected final votes. Hopefully this is useful.

3

Super saturday – election day thread

Polls have now opened in the South Australian state election and the federal Batman by-election, and will be opening in the state by-election in Cottesloe within the next half-hour.

This post is mostly to provide a place to discuss today’s events, but I did want to touch briefly on the two statewide polls released last night for South Australia.

Both have very similar numbers, with the Liberal Party leading on 34%, Labor on 31%, and SA Best on 16% (Reachtel) or 17% (Newspoll). We know that Newspoll has dialled down their numbers for SA Best to reflect the fact that they were running everywhere (the last poll had them on a statewide figure of 27% but only 21% if you exclude voters who can’t vote for them), presumably Reachtel is similar.

A vote of 16-17% would be very good for a minor party, and will undoubtedly be enough to win some seats, but it’ll be a small bench and suggests that Nick Xenophon may struggle to win Hartley (as a local poll has emphasised).

I’ll be running a liveblog here while also contributing to the Guardian’s liveblog. The main thing I plan to include here is a model matching the booths in Batman. Of course, expect some booth results maps late in the night (this time I’m confident I’ll get access to the data on the night).

Good luck voting!

1

Batman by-election – read the guide

Federal Labor MP David Feeney has just announced that he will be resigning from his seat of Batman after failing to prove that he had renounced his British citizenship, and won’t be contesting the subsequent by-election.

It is expected that the race will be between five-time Greens candidate Alex Bhathal and ACTU president Ged Kearney.

You can read the Tally Room guide to this by-election here.

0

Seat of the day #21: Batman

Batman is a Labor seat in the inner north of Melbourne, covering Fairfield, Northcote, Thornbury, Preston, Reservoir and Kingsbury.

Batman is a traditional Labor seat, although the Greens have been making significant inroads. Labor MP David Feeney won the seat in 2013, moving from the Senate.

The Greens have come second in Batman at the 2010 and 2013 election. The Labor margin in 2013 was 10.6%, but that was with beneficial Liberal preferences. That margin would have been entirely wiped out if the Liberal Party instead preferenced the Greens. If the Greens gain Liberal preferences in 2016, Batman will be a very close race.

Read more

6

Tale of three maps: Batman, Macquarie and Richmond

Macquarie2-GRNAs a further taste of the seat guides being posted now on the Tally Room (53 and counting), I thought I’d run through another three interesting seats. Today these three seats are all seats with above-average Greens votes, but also with a wide variation in the Greens vote across the seat.

These seats are: Batman in the inner north of Melbourne, Macquarie on the north-western fringe of Sydney, and Richmond in the north-eastern corner of New South Wales.

I’d like to remind readers that comments are open on all fifty-three seat guides posted so far –¬†comments have been posted on every guide, with almost 800 comments posted so far this month. Please join in and let us know your thoughts about your local seat or another seat that you are familiar with.

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