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Andrew Gee’s primary vote in 2025 wasn’t that high and neither was the National’s. Gee got through with preferences from a fractured vote.
If ONP keeps their momentum going till the next election, there could be a repeat of the Farrer by-election – an IND vs ONP contest. The Nationals would likely withdraw resources to defend their own seats againt ONP. Gee has to get a sizable primary vote and not trail too much to stay in the race. Preferences from Labor would help.