Farrer by-election – election day livestream

Polls close in 1hr most exiciting by-election in sometime

Some talk on the ABC that a lot of Labor’s votes must have gone to One Nation because Millthorpe was only up 6-7%? Is it more likely that with more attacking of Millthorpe this time, trying to paint her as left wing, that a decent portion of her vote from 2025 went to One Nation, while most of Labor’s votes went to her?

@ Adam
Both are possible. Tony Barry often said there are Red One Nation voters who are generally White Working Class voters who are ONP curious. Say a Bunnings worker in Albury who may have voted Labor in 2025 but shifted to ONP at the by-election. It maybe what happened at the Nepean by-election where some poorer retirees shifted from ALP to ONP.

I think there were lots of Labor voters who went to ONP but went to Milthorpe to a lesser extent. They both positioned themselves as the non-Coalition challengers.

Milthorpe’s primary vote went up by less than half of Labor’s 2025 primary vote. Also, the Greens vote declined but it may be because of LCA. Normally in metropolitan electorates, the Greens get swings when Labor isn’t running.

The poor Greens performance both here, and in Nepean, and even in South Australia and the Federal election last year make me think that Labor voters are not considering the Greens at a very high rate. Makes me think Labor will be able to hold on against the Greens in Inner Melbourne in November, and maybe even pick up Richmond. Yes, the Labor voters in inner Melbourne are very different to voters in regional NSW but still..

I think the results in Farrer also show how out of place Albury is in this rural seat. Albury-Wodonga is a big regional centre like Ballarat, Bendigo, Toowoomba, Launceston etc and those cities all have their own seats. If electorates could cross state borders Albury-Wodonga would have its own seat with some surrounding towns like Rutherglen, Beechworth etc with which Albury has a much stronger community of interest than far flung places like Balranald, Hay, Griffith. No other comparable regional city in the country has so much rural area in its electorate except for maybe Cairns (Leichhardt) but Cairns arguably has a stronger community of interest with all of FNQ than Albury does with western NSW towns like Wentworth.

@Adam, I think the reason why poor Greens performance both this seat, and in Nepean is since it had a LIB vs IND race in the previous general elections meaning the politically aware Labor Voters probably voted for the independent candidate twice which made apathetic Labor Voters the only ones left over to vote Labor during a general election but unlike they former, this group tends to be more socially conservative hence explain why it does nit go into Green Vote and higher proportion of them going to One Nation.

The results don’t look good for the Nationals prospects at future state or federal elections. ONP got primary votes in the 40s or 50s at most polling booths outside of Albury in what is traditional Nationals heartland – small-town and rural Australia.

My take on what have we learned:

– if Michelle Milthorpe could not win this time she never will.
– The Coalition had a shocker – the Libs in particular. Re the Libs – was it a poor candidate, poor campaign, Angus Taylor, or the complete Clusterf**k?
– Greens had a shocker too especially in Albury where they had respectable votes in 2025.
– If you assume that the Greens losses went to Milthorpe, you get a situation where about 50- 60% of Labors 2025 vote went directly to One Nation. Similar thing seemed to happen in Nepean last week too. What happens to Labor in those regional cities like Bendigo, Ballarat, Launceston where they are still in the race?
– If this was repeated across multiple regional seats in a General Election then regional Australia could vote itself into a ghetto of political irrelevance. Labor have given up a while back and the Nats gave them a seat at the big table BUT possibly no more. Rural Australia will get the “No votes in it for us” treatment from the the major parties.
– increasing the size of parliament is probably off the agenda for a while. Opening up vacant regional seats could allow ON just walk in.

@ Adam
I do think Marh is correct that not all Labor voters will switch to Teal or Greens especially apathetic battlers. In Inner Melbourne it really the Liberals preference decision that will decide Fate of Northcote/Richmond. I suspect Greens or Victorian Socialists will surge in Working Class CALD parts of Melbourne especially where there a lot of Muslims such as Greenvale, Broadmeadows and St Albans much of that will be an the expense of anti-lockdown candidiates last time. i also dont think Greens would have put much of an effort in Farrer they preffered candidiate was Michelle Milthorpe.
@ Marh, interestingly much of the areas where Millthorpe increased the most was Griffith which has a significant Non White CALD population. That maybe interesting in places like Melton and Werribee to see if south Asians vote Labor strongly to prevent ONP.
@ Redistributed i think Bendigo, Ballarat and Launeston have a stronger Labor heritage than Albury or Rosebud does so i think while Labor will loose support some support to ONP it will hold up better where there actually sitting Labor MPs. Also need to note Ballarat, Bendigo have seen some gentrification and have many Yes voting booths. I suspect where Labor vote will crash the most is actually the Mortgage belt seat of Pearce.

My commentary:
1. I expected Michelle Milthorpe to come second but not come close to winning. Winning in Albury isn’t enough.

ONP wasn’t going to win big in a large regional city like Albury. They wouldn’t do that well in less agrarian, more progressive parts e.g. Northern Rivers of NSW, Armidale, Lismore, Port Macquarie, Coffs Harbour. The vote splitting on the right (Nats, ONP) could make it easier for an independent to break through.

2. ONP crushed the minor right-wing vote. It seems that voters of People First, SFF and FF switched to ONP. It might be because the socially conservative, anti-establishment vote rallied behind ONP.

3. The Liberal campaign was just inferior. ONP and Milthorpe had far stronger, better coordinated and better resourced campaigns and seemed more motivated.

4. The swing away from the Coalition parties was >20%. This is even without a Labor candidate. Obviously ex-Labor voters weren’t rushing to the Coalition. This might be the first time the Liberals have gone from holding a seat to falling out of the 2CP. Add Farrer to the list of former leaders’ seats that the Liberals no longer hold.

5. The Griffith part swung hard to Milthorpe. It could be because of its relatively strong Labor voter base and history of reliance on migrant labour.

Griffith is interesting
– All but two booths there still voted for One Nation in TPP even though the town requires a strong migrant labour for its agricultural industry (explain the large migrant population) so I wonder if many One Nation Voters voted against their interest on focusing on nationalism rather than needs as this was also the case for American Farm Owners voting for Trump despite having hired many undocumented immigrants?

– If you look at Atlas Id, most of the non-white population (majority Indians) are very heavily concentrated in the South East of the town (one SA1 tract actually had majority of its resident born in India) while most census tracts in the North-west are not diverse meaning I there is probably a strong low contact intergroup relations in the town. In fact the two polling booths that voted Milthorpe over ONP in TPP correlated with census tracts that has a sizable or high proportion born overseas although to be fair overwhelm majority of Overseas Born are not Australians citizens .

@Redistributed I think the results show that One Nation cannot win in places like Ballarat, Bendigo, Launceston. The fact that they couldn’t even win Albury at a byelection with no incumbent and all the momentum towards them in a city that is traditionally conservative shows they can’t win in urban Australia. As Nimalan says those other cities have stronger Labor histories, and are progressive leaning.

My point above regarding regional cities but not made clear is … not that One Nation would win but that One Nation will get enough votes to take Labor out. The Labor vote will be depressed low enough that the Coalition would come through on ON preferences – if those preferences travel with ON and don’t somehow go back to Labor.

Kos Samaras has pointed out that the Red One Nation voter tends to be quite different. They are a soft ONP voter and generally Anti-Trump, Against Iran War, Pro-Welfare so if Labor campaigns to remind them of Pauline connection to Trump, support for Iran War, ONP IR policy, connection to Gina Rinehart these voters may return to Labor. I also think ONP will do long term damage to Libs in Outer Suburban seats such as Werriwa, Gorton as this will lead to ethnic/religious polarisation. Thee are two seats that Libs were interested in to reduce reliance on Tealish areas. A few years ago Libs were hoping on a multicultural working class realignment and a post racial society which now seems more distant than ever

@Nimalan, that is probably like our version of Sanders-Trump or Trump-Mamdani voters – economically populist and generally working-class. I agree that such voters here may be opposed to Trump.

Barnaby Joyce last night said “Western Sydney, here we come”. There may be some pockets of Western Sydney that are One Nation friendly. They tend to be semi-rural or outer suburban. This includes parts of Hume. Many outer suburban, working class seats like Werriwa or Gorton are culturally diverse and won’t favour ONP so strongly even if they favour economic populism.

@ Votante
I agree so these voters will support Oil Refineries and domestic manufacturing but not Iran War. When Barnaby Joyce was referring to Western Sydney i think it really Hume and Lindsay (Penrith LGA) that ONP will appeal to not Werriwa or Gorton in Melbourne.
ONP may appeal in Hawke but as it rapidly grows it will likely split with more urbanised CALD areas splitting from the Semi-rural areas like Bacchus Marsh and Sunbury.

@Votante, Western Sydney could have a strong ethnic/religious polarisation as Nimalan said where the long time older whites there are more nationalist and resentful towards POC even if they are neighbours meaning there is the low contact intergroup threat perception. Afterall, many RW White Nationalist actually had their political awakening due to this such as Tommy Robinson who grew up in a Muslim heavy part of Luton or even closer to home like Stephen Chavura who grew up in Bankstown.

I think the biggest potential for a Labor to One Nation swing is more likely in peri-urban and rural electorates that are mainly working class and with few migrants and few uni degree holders like Spence, Hunter and Patterson. Farrer is mostly rural. The result in Farrer showed a huge shift to ONP, rather than to the Greens or Coalition, when Labor was absent.

@Nimalan, Marh. I wouldn’t rule out a surge in ONP support in more working class metropolitan electorates but it would likely be a part of a grievance vote or anti-establishment vote. They may vote ONP for their economic populism or as a protest vote. However, I don’t think in Werriwa or Gorton or Lalor, the ONP vote will be as high as in seats even further from the CBD, partly due to their stances on immigration and Trump.

Western Sydney could mean the state electorates of Wollondilly, Camden and Badgerys Creek. I agree that Lindsay and Hume would be at risk of falling to ONP.

I’d like to offer support for Adam’s comment from last night.

The Demos Au MRP poll showed that even in inner city Team held seats, the IND’s are losing ground to ON. It’s probably the protest vote that was parked with whatever IND there was. It’s easy to be and support and IND – you don’t get labelled as being partisan. But when there is another option – ON is that option now – a segment of the IND vote just picks up and shifts.

So it is quite likely that a sizeable part (say 5%) of Milthorpe’s 2025 primary vote went to the ON column, and it was replaced with most (approx 10%) of the Labor 2025 vote, with the rest going to ON. But the story is that 20% of the Liberal vote just said “I’m off”.

@ Votante
I agree, However, in seats such as Lalor for example the Liberal base is weak not really old money or professionals. More likely to be small business owners/self employed or social conservatives so the Liberal vote is more prone to collapse than in a more affluent seat where the former demographic are not likely to move to One Nation. Gorton is slightly different as it Keilor which is fairly affluent and has some professionals but White voters such as Maltese or Slavic communities (in Caroline Springs, Taylors Hills) may swing from LIB to ONP while POC like South Asians and Vietnamese there may swing to Labor almost out of fear so what you may get is a fairly safe ALP V ONP seat. In such cases voting becomes like Northern Ireland where it is just a Sectarian headcount we saw this in the UK -Gorton and Denton by election where white working class voters voted Reform UK while Pakistani community voted Greens. So for example a discussion on Melton electrification or Clyde rail extention becomes largely absent, which is in the interest of all voters irrespective of their faith or where their ancestors come from, where there is greater ethnic/religious divides.

In 2002, many Liberals wanted to go hunting in Diverse Outer Suburban areas to replace Teals (see article below) i think that is now out the window as education is no longer the only divide and ethnicity/Religious background joins the list and complicates it

https://ipa.org.au/read/the-liberals-need-to-embrace-their-working-class-voters-to-win-over-the-outer-suburban-freedom-fighters

Fragmentation of the Right. Who will be the great White Father to reunite the warring tribes ?

I think Michelle Milthorpe would do well if she were to run for Albury at the 2027 state election. She won most booths in Albury LGA this by-election and last general election.

@Nimalan, I think outer suburban, working-class federal electorates e.g. Lalor could become ALP vs ONP contests like at the SA state election. This is because of the emergence of a non-Labor alternative that protest voters and disaffected Labor and Liberal voters could get behind. There is a strong social conservative cohort but as you mentioned, they are not particularly asset or income-rich.

@ Votante
I agree that ONP may come second in many outer suburban working class electorates. The Difference is that the seats especilaly in Melbourne and Sydney are much more CALD than Northern Adelaide so it is a steeper ask. If you look at Labor working class heartland in Capital Cities it is really along Brand and Spence that are heavily Anglo now. Other Labor safe seats are progressive like Fremantle, Lilley, Jagajaga or Ethnic working class like Calwell. There are few seats that are traditionally Labor outside Capital cities that have always been Labor held like Whitlam, Hunter and to a lesser extent Shortland where ONP could do well.

Also @ Votante
While there is a lot of talk about decline of Greens vote please note there is Legalise Cannabis. Often when another left wing party whether it is Socialists, Animal Justice or Legalise Cannabis Greens loose votes as well.

Nimalan

The normal logic would be that no ALP candidate (as seen in Nepean and Farrer) should see the Greens picking up a goodly proportion of those ALP votes seeking a home. In both Nepean and Farrer this was not the case. Those Labor votes have substantially gone to the Independent (Hutchison or Milthorpe). In Farrer, the combined Green + Cannabis vote was less than the Green vote in 2025. Lower turnout and young people not voting is not an issue in Farrer as the turnout was very high. If the Greens can’t win ‘motivated’ left wing voters (albeit in conservative seats) when there is no Labor candidate they have a problem.

Generally when Labor abstains from a by-election in a safe metropolitan Liberal seat, the Greens vote goes up. It is because the more progressive voters have no other main alternative and the Greens are the main non-Liberal option. Some Labor voters may just hold their noses and vote Liberal.

The Farrer by-election presented not one but two strong non-Coalition alternatives. Labor voters didn’t have to vote Green and actually felt they had a say in an otherwise, normally safe Coalition seat.

@Nimalan, yes, you’re quite right. Traditional Labor heartland seats like Brand, Hunter and Spence may be due for a realignment or a shift to the right. They are poorer and have lower levels of uni degree attainment. Those seats were saved last election because of the Liberals’ horrible electoral campaign and Labor’s superior campaign.

@Vontante, I think Swing and even a fair amount of moderate Labor Voters tend to preference Liberals over The Greens as this was the case for the Warrandyte and Epping by-elections as I think this group favours pragmatism and stability.

We are in a better place now Nadia.