South West – WA 2021

Incumbent MLCs

  • Diane Evers (Greens), since 2017.
  • Adele Farina (Labor), since 2001.
  • Colin Holt (Nationals), since 2009.
  • Sally Talbot (Labor), since 2005.
  • Steve Thomas (Liberal), since 2017.
  • Colin Tincknell (One Nation), since 2017.

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
AlbanyALP 5.9%DawesvilleLIB 0.9%VasseLIB 14.7%
BunburyALP 11.1%MandurahALP 18.1%Warren-BlackwoodNAT 12.9% vs ALP
Collie-PrestonALP 13.6%Murray-WellingtonALP 1.8%

South West covers the southwestern corner of the state, stretching along the coast from Mandurah on the southern fringe of Perth to Albany on the state’s southern coast.

Labor holds five seats, the Liberal Party holds two and the Nationals hold one.

You can click through to individual seat profiles on the table above or on the map below.

Redistribution
The region’s external boundaries only changed in one area. The seat of Albany lost the Jerramungup council area to Roe in the Mining and Pastoral region.

A number of other small changes happened to other electorates within the region, but the names of seats were all preserved and no seat changed hands thanks to the redistribution.

History
South West was created as a seven-member electorate in 1989.

At the first election in 1989, the ALP and the Liberal Party each won three seats, and the Nationals won one. This result was maintained in 1993.

In 1996, the Greens won a seat, taking the ALP’s third seat.

In 2001, the Nationals lost their seat to One Nation. At the first four elections in the region, the right (Liberal, Nationals and One Nation) won four seats, compared to three seats for the left.

In 2005, the left-right split was disturbed, with the ALP winning the seat won by One Nation in 2001. This produced a result of three Labor, three Nationals and one Greens.

In 2008, South West lost one of its seven seats. Labor and the Greens both lost a seat, and the Nationals won a seat after a seven-year absence.

Each party held its seats in 2013. Liberal MLC Nigel Hallett defected to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party in 2016.

The Liberal Party, who had won three seats in 2013 and had gone into the election with two seats, was reduced to just one in 2017. Labor retained their two seats and the Nationals retained their one. Shooters MLC Nigel Hallett, formerly of the Liberal Party, lost. The remaining two seats went to Greens candidate Diane Evers and One Nation candidate Colin Tincknell.

2017 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuotaSeatsRedist %Redist q.
Labor 70,73436.45.92.5511236.52.5475
Liberal 44,01422.7-21.31.5874122.71.5820
Nationals 23,36012.01.10.8425111.90.8333
One Nation20,63610.610.60.7443110.60.7419
Greens 14,7057.6-0.30.530317.60.5298
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers7,9944.11.80.288304.10.2867
Australian Christians3,2921.70.20.118701.70.1184
Others9,3534.80.337304.80.3367
Informal5,4112.7

Three seats were decided on primary votes: two seats for Labor and one for the Liberal Party.

Let’s fast forward to the point in the count where twelve candidates are competing for the final three seats:

  • Colin Holt (NAT) – 0.846 quotas
  • Colin Tincknell (ON) – 0.747
  • Wade De Campo (LIB) – 0.585
  • John Mondy (ALP) – 0.549
  • Diane Evers (GRN) – 0.541
  • Nigel Hallett (SFP) – 0.306
  • Greg Spaanderman (CHR) – 0.119
  • Nathan Dyson (LDP) – 0.088
  • Linda Rose (FF) – 0.065
  • Alicia Sutton (AJP) – 0.057
  • Daithi Gleeson (FLUX) – 0.051
  • Brett Tucker (DSP) – 0.044

Preferences from the Daylight Saving candidate flowed to the Flux candidate, pushing them ahead of three other candidates:

  • Holt (NAT) – 0.846
  • Tincknell (ON) – 0.747
  • De Campo (LIB) – 0.586
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.549
  • Evers (GRN) – 0.541
  • Hallett (SFP) – 0.306
  • Spaanderman (CHR) – 0.119
  • Gleeson (FLUX) – 0.093
  • Dyson (LDP) – 0.088
  • Rose (FF) – 0.065
  • Sutton (AJP) – 0.057

Animal Justice preferences also flowed to Flux:

  • Holt (NAT) – 0.847
  • Tincknell (ON) – 0.748
  • De Campo (LIB) – 0.586
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.549
  • Evers (GRN) – 0.543
  • Hallett (SFP) – 0.307
  • Gleeson (FLUX) – 0.146
  • Spaanderman (CHR) – 0.119
  • Dyson (LDP) – 0.088
  • Rose (FF) – 0.066

Family First preferences flowed to the Liberal Democrats, keeping them in the race:

  • Holt (NAT) – 0.847
  • Tincknell (ON) – 0.748
  • De Campo (LIB) – 0.586
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.549
  • Evers (GRN) – 0.543
  • Hallett (SFP) – 0.308
  • Dyson (LDP) – 0.149
  • Gleeson (FLUX) – 0.146
  • Spaanderman (CHR) – 0.122

Australian Christians preferences flowed to the Shooters and Fishers, shutting the door for Flux and the Liberal Democrats:

  • Holt (NAT) – 0.850
  • Tincknell (ON) – 0.751
  • De Campo (LIB) – 0.590
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.550
  • Evers (GRN) – 0.543
  • Hallett (SFP) – 0.418
  • Dyson (LDP) – 0.150
  • Gleeson (FLUX) – 0.147

Flux preferences flowed to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens:

  • Holt (NAT) – 0.850
  • Tincknell (ON) – 0.752
  • De Campo (LIB) – 0.590
  • Evers (GRN) – 0.598
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.551
  • Hallett (SFP) – 0.420
  • Dyson (LDP) – 0.238

The Liberal Democrats vote had come from a number of sources so scattered when Dyson was excluded:

  • Holt (NAT) – 0.977
  • Tincknell (ON) – 0.752
  • Evers (GRN) – 0.641
  • De Campo (LIB) – 0.591
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.561
  • Hallett (SFP) – 0.476

Shooters preferences flowed to a number of candidates but a majority went to One Nation, and pushed Tincknell over quota to win the fourth seat:

  • Tincknell (ON) – 1.026
  • Holt (NAT) – 0.993
  • De Campo (LIB) – 0.702
  • Evers (GRN) – 0.688
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.589

The small One Nation surplus pushed the Nationals over quota for the fifth seat, leaving three candidates competing for the final seat:

  • De Campo (LIB) – 0.720
  • Evers (GRN) – 0.688
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.590

Labor preferences then elected the Greens candidate to the final seat:

  • Evers (GRN) – 1.224
  • De Campo (LIB) – 0.722
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.052

Candidates

  • A – Charles Hopkins (Waxit)
  • B – Justin Zwartkruis (Health Australia)
  • C – John Banks (Independent)
  • D – Keith Bunton (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • E – Yasmin Bartlett (Independent)
  • F – Diane Evers (Greens)
  • G – Laurence van der Plas (Australian Christians)
  • H – Sophia Moermond (Legalise Cannabis)
  • I – Eli Bernstein (Liberal Democrats)
  • J – Garry Spiers (Daylight Saving Party)
  • K – Terri Anne Sharp (Western Australia Party)
  • L – Rick Mazza (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • M – Colin Tincknell (One Nation)
  • N – Vicki Bailey (Animal Justice)
  • O – Labor
    1. Sally Talbot
    2. Alannah MacTiernan
    3. Jackie Jarvis
    4. John Mondy
    5. Ben Dawkins
    6. Kylie Fitzgerald
  • P – Liberal
    1. Steve Thomas
    2. Greg Stocks
    3. Anita Shortland
    4. Hayden Burbidge
  • Q – Mark Bentley (Flux / Liberals for Climate)
  • R – Daniel Minson (Sustainable Australia)
  • S – Nick Robinson (Great Australian Party)
  • T – Nationals
    1. James Hayward
    2. Louise Kingston
    3. Rod Pfeiffer
  • U – George Seth (Independent)
  • V – Dave Schumacher (Independent)

Preferences
Labor preferenced the Greens second, then the Shooters, followed by the parties in the micro-party alliance.

The Liberal Party preferenced the Nationals second, followed by the Shooters, the Australian Christians and then the leading One Nation candidate.

The Nationals preferenced the Liberal Party second, then the Shooters, followed by the parties in the micro-party alliance.

The micro-party alliance are consistently preferencing Sustainable Australia second.

The Greens preferenced Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis, Labor and then the micro-party alliance, with all other groups behind the Liberal Party.

Assessment
The first Liberal and Labor seats are safe. The second Labor seat is reasonably safe outside of a major election defeat.

The Nationals are in a strong position to retain their one seat, but I wouldn’t call it safe.

One Nation would need to hold up their vote to retain their seat. If it drops they could be vulnerable to the Liberal Party or another right-wing party like the Shooters.

The Shooters have done reasonably well from preferences, and their sitting MLC is moving to this region after representing the Agricultural region for eight years.

The Greens position is not solid either. A slightly increased Labor vote could see Labor take the seat, while a drop in the combined left vote could see the seat go to the right.

Sustainable Australia is in the strongest position amongst the micro-parties.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the vote across the region, with a vote ranging from 49.2% in Mandurah to 22.2% in Vasse.

The Liberal Party came second, with their vote peaking at 32.6% in Dawesville and dropping as low as 17% in Warren-Blackwood.

The Nationals vote ranged from just 1.8% in Mandurah to 25.5% in Warren-Blackwood.

One Nation’s vote ranged from 8.1% in Warren-Blackwood to 13.2% in Murray-Wellington.

The Greens came fifth, with a vote ranging from 4.3% in Murray-Wellington to 14.9% in Warren-Blackwood.

Results of the 2017 WA upper house election in the South West region, by 2021 electorate

1 COMMENT

  1. This’ll be the third upper house region Alannah MacTiernan has been a member for – she’s also represented East Metro (in the 90’s) and North Metro (more recently). She’s also been lower house MP for Armadale (state) and Perth (federal), and was mayor of Vincent somewhere in there as well. She moves around a bit.

    Rick Mazza (Shooters) is also swapping regions, from Agricultural to South West. The last right-wing seat will probably be between him and One Nation.

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