Altona – Victoria 2010

ALP 20.2%

Incumbent MP
Jill Hennessy, since February 2010.

Geography
Western Melbourne. Altona covers suburbs near Port Phillip Bay between Melbourne and Geelong, specifically Altona, Altona Meadows, Laverton, Laverton North and Point Cook and parts of Altona North and Hoppers Crossing. Altona covers western parts of the City of Hobsons Bay and eastern parts of the City of Wyndham.

History
Altona was first created for the 1992 election, and it has always been held by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1992 by Carole Marple. She held the seat for one term, but before the 1996 election she was defeated for preselection by Lynne Kosky.

Kosky was re-elected in 1999, 2002 and 2006. She served as a minister in the Bracks government from 1999 to 2010, most recently as Minister for Public Transport. She retired from politics in January 2010.

The 2010 Altona by-election was won by the ALP’s Jill Hennessy. She won despite a large swing to the Liberal Party, which cut the ALP’s margin from 20% to under 8%.

Candidates

Political situation
Altona is relatively safe for the ALP. While the ALP’s margin was cut back at the by-election, it would be hard for them to lose much more ground.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Lynne Kosky ALP 22,332 60.61 -7.52
Ian Soylemez LIB 8,804 23.89 +1.01
Andreas Bischof GRN 3,101 8.42 -0.47
David Bernard FF 2,609 7.08 +7.08

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Lynne Kosky ALP 25,869 70.21 -4.48
Ian Soylemez LIB 10,974 29.79 +4.48

2010 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jill Hennessy ALP 18,249 47.50 -13.11
Mark Rose LIB 13,427 34.95 +11.06
David Strangward GRN 4,006 10.43 +2.01
Liz Mumby IND 693 1.80 +1.80
Brijender Nain IND 634 1.65 +1.65
Brian Shaw IND 623 1.62 +1.62
Margarita Windisch SA 607 1.58 +1.58
Andrew Rixon IND 182 0.47 +0.47

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jill Hennessy ALP 22,252 57.93 -12.28
Mark Rose LIB 16,160 42.07 +12.28

Booth breakdown
Booths in Altona have been divided into four areas. All booths lie along a narrow strip through the middle of the seat, with no booths in the north of the south of the seat. Booths in the centre of the seat have been divided into “North” and “South”. The ALP polled most strongly in the north at both the 2006 election and the 2010 by-election. The Greens polled most strongly in the east of the seat. The swing away from the ALP in the by-election varied from 9.5% in the north to 13.4% in the east.

 

Polling booths in Altona at the 2006 state election. East in blue, West in yellow, South in red, North in green.

 

 

2006 election breakdown

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
South 8.27 70.09 12,539 34.03
West 7.23 68.05 6,016 16.33
North 8.14 77.08 5,872 15.94
East 10.63 69.85 5,098 13.84
Other votes 8.32 66.94 7,318 19.86

2010 by-election breakdown

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
South 11.12 56.78 11,394 29.19
West 8.94 57.70 5,662 14.50
North 10.45 67.55 5,119 13.11
East 13.16 56.46 4,936 12.65
Other votes 9.71 55.03 11,924 30.55
Two-party-preferred votes in Altona at the 2006 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes at the Altona by-election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. The by-election result is probably closer to the true nature of the seat than the 2006 election figures: it’s safe but not 20% ALP margin safe.

    Altona (‘East’) is slowly trending the same way as areas closer to the city, becoming more affluent and Green-friendly.

    ‘North’ is the Laverton public housing estate. 77% Labor and single-digit Green is no suprise there.

    ‘South’ and ‘West’ are more low-to-middle income mortgage belt rather than solid working class, so can swing big and give the Liberals a look in (as the by-election shows). Point Cook in the south in particular has some relatively affluent McMansion areas and the Sanctuary Lakes Golf Course community (I think that’s the Lib booth from the by-election). Growth in this area will probably soften the seat for Labor as time goes on.

    Labor will easily win it, but it will be interesting to see if the Liberals can hold onto most of their gain from the by-election.

  2. If this was a Sydney seat you would expect Libs to do very well out of the new housing estates, aided perhaps by running a South Asian candidate to appeal to their voters. But this is Melbourne and although Labor’s vote will drift down this should remain a safe Labor seat for a future cabinet minister.

  3. As a local, it’s worth noting that all the gain made in the by-election were due to Rose spending big dollars on pre-election adversiting, when both the Greens and ALP did nothing at all. He has started again, being the first to get his postal vote infomation out, and if he keeps up his presence, he will be a good shot and retaining his swing

  4. Candidates in ballot paper order are:

    Brijender Nain –
    Jill Hennessy – Labor
    David Strangward – Greens
    Mark Rose – Liberal
    Elizabeth Mumby – Family First

    I note all 5 candidates had also contested the by-election. Mumby, now running for FF, stood as an independent.

  5. Prediction; ALP hold 15%, Rose has done no visible campaigning this time, so the by-election swing should unwind substanially

Comments are closed.