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Predictions:
LNP: 40.4% (+19.3%)
Labor: 32.6% (–17.6%)
Legalise Cannabis: 11.2% (+6.7%)
One Nation: 10.5% (–4.2%)
Greens: 4.2% (–2.3%)
TPP:
LNP: 55.3% (+19.6%)
Labor: 44.7% (–19.6%)
The LNP will perform slightly better than they did at the by-election, with the LNP retaining the seat. One thing that may change is the Legalise Cannabis vote: it may not be 11.2%.
LNP hold.
Agree it’ll be an LNP hold, but Legalise Cannabis only had that primary vote in the absence of a Greens candidate. With a Greens candidate, LC vote will be more like 4/5% and the Greens will be around the 8% mark.
The lack of a Greens candidate also contributed to the easy win for the LNP at the by-election. Like Ipswich, I suspect Ipswich West will be a very close race but do think the LNP will hold.