To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
Could be an interesting one given it’s 35% over quota
classic mortgage belt area now with young families so bread/butter issues will be important as a service delivery issues.
no chance Labor wins this in 2024 while on the nose. maybe 2027/2028 (early elections are possible if 3/4 or so of parliament vote to dissolve, the governor dismisses parliament, or a no-confidence vote succeeds and no government is formed in a certain time)
a redistribution after the next election will determine how this will go in 2028, but gut feeling is this becomes safer for LNP on newer boundaries and unless Crisafulli is another Newman, will probably hold until Labor wins a decent majority or improves on the Gold Coast from their disastrous 1-2 seats (although I count Macalister as Gold Coast since Beenleigh really is Gold Coast)
@Daniel T Beenleigh is in Brisbane. It falls within the City of Logan LGA. Macalister is also not on the Gold Coast given that it entirely falls within the Logan LGA. Just thought I might clear that up.
Unlike Sydney, Melbourne, Perth or Adelaide (but somewhat similar to Newcastle, the Central Coast and Wollongong), South East Queensland has fewer, more populated LGAs. The Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast and Ipswich all have one LGA each while Brisbane has four: the City of Brisbane, the City of Logan, the City of Moreton Bay and the City of Redlands. This means that in an American-style system, SEQ (particularly Brisbane) can be more easily divided like New York City (which has five boroughs: Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, The Bronx and Staten Island), while Sydney, Melbourne, etc can be more easily divided like Los Angeles County (which has 88 cities inside it that all form part of one larger city and one county: Los Angeles). Or in the UK you could say that Sydney, Melbourne, etc are more like London which has several boroughs.
The only Labor seat on the Gold Coast is Gaven and they are most likely going to lose that seat in 2024.
Nether, I consider anything south of the Logan river “outer gold coast” I would also consider the federal seat of Forde to have parts of both Logan and the Gold Coast (and hinterland)
Also I strongly disagree with your assertion that Moreton Bay, Logan, Redlands etc, are part of Brisbane. They are completely different LGAs and council areas. I don’t remember having to vote for Brisbane lord mayor in 2020. I also will say that Moreton Bay gets a different EKKA holiday than Brisbane does.
You are right that Melbourne is different, as areas such as the Mornington peninsula are considered “Melbourne” but they have their own council areas.
Im also not sure how you can be so sure about Labor losing Gaven especially if Labor dump Anastasia. An LNP majority is unlikely and an LNP minority is the most likely outcome at this stage. Labor is on the nose but the LNP has failed to make a breakthrough. They are not winning Aspley, Mansfield and Springwood which are must wins for majority unless they take Rockhampton and Mulgrave, etc.
A hung parliament would be interesting.. .. one guaranteed..right vote…only. what kap do is anyone’s guess
If you’re trying to define which city’s orbit a place falls into, best to look at it culturally and economically rather than politically. Beenleigh (and Macalister) is probably economically in the orbit of both places, but perhaps a little more so to Brisbane given the ease of commuting there by public transport. Culturally it’s certainly a lot more like Logan than the Gold Coast, from having spent time there.
I consider Brisbane to have four LGAs like how Sydney and Melbourne have over 20. They get different Ekka holidays because they need to divide it by LGA not by city.
But @Daniel T I do agree that Forde does overlap a bit with the Gold Coast, especially in the Hinterland. But it is mostly based in Logan.
@mick i highly doubt it will be a hung parliament and if it was KAP would side with the LNP as it would be electoal suicide to back labor though they would haggle and pretend to be on the fence
This maybe a seat that Labor will need to win in the next period of to offset any future losses such as McConnel to the Greens and to ensure they have a majority. Another potential seat is Theodore both of these seats are more inland so not as affluent as waterfront Gold Coast seats.
@Daniel T – there’s no way anyone who lives in Macalister, considers themselves ‘outer Gold Coast’ – Beenleigh and surrounds is Logan through and through and if anything ‘outer Brisbane’.
Anyways, back to Coomera – this is one of only two LNP seats that I think could be in trouble this time, only due to the massive population boom. But even then, I think the Gold Coast will swing back to the LNP this time for it to be safe for Crandon.