Can McGowan hand over Indi?

It was reported yesterday that independent MP Cathy McGowan will retire from her seat of Indi at this year's federal election. She will be hoping to be succeeded by rural health researcher Helen Haines, who has been endorsed by Voices for Indi, the community group...

Victoria 2018 – minor party votes mapped

This is my last post for 2018, one final set of Victorian election maps. I'll be back in the new year with more coverage of the New South Wales and federal elections. Today I'm looking at the distribution of the vote for two of the...

Victoria 2018 – mapping the below the line vote

There was a concerted effort before the recent Victorian state election from psephologists and other commentators to encourage voters to vote below-the-line. I posted on the day after the election about the early figures, including the breakdown of below-the-line rates for each party. I won't...

Victoria 2018 – two-party-preferred, mapped

In today's edition, I'm updating a map I produced on request to include the two-party-preferred vote (and swing) in 87 out of 88 seats. The VEC published two-party-preferred figures in seats where the two-candidate-preferred was not between Labor and Coalition (this electorate-level data is available...

Victoria 2018 – Greens vote, mapped

Today's maps focus on the performance of the Greens, who went backwards in terms of votes, yet managed to win a record number of lower house seats at a general election. This first map shows the primary vote swing for the Greens in the 88...

Victoria 2018 – mapping the state

I have just finished my collection of election data for the Victorian state election. This collection features the full list of booths with location information, the full list of candidates, primary vote and 2CP voting figures by booth, and voting figures by electorate and region...

Greens NSW – majoritarian preselections and walking away

I received an email yesterday from Justin Field, a Greens members of the NSW upper house, effectively laying out a threat that himself and his colleague Cate Faehrmann would quit the party unless the party met two of its demands: https://twitter.com/benraue/status/1072732509757091840 Specifically they are asking that...

Vic 2018 – group voting tickets triumph over voters

The button was pushed this afternoon in the eight Victorian Legislative Council contests, producing provisional results (subject to any possible challenges where the race might be close. The seat count by party is: 18 Labor (+4) 10 Liberal (-4) 1 Nationals (-1) 1 Greens (-4) ...

Podcast #16 – Victorian late counting

In the final episode of the Tally Room for 2018, I'm joined by Kevin Bonham to discuss the close races in the Victorian state election, and to run through all eight Legislative Council contests just days out from the pushing of the button in...

The Liberal problem with women (it’s not about the voters)

Federal Liberal MP Tim Wilson was interviewed on Saturday morning, and was quoted as saying that "ultimately the public needs to vote" for all of the great female candidates his party is running. https://twitter.com/verbaliza/status/1068626159292755968 Anyone who has read my previous analysis of gender balance would know...