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Considering the collapse in support for the Libs nation-wide, it was a good result for them here especially around the areas transferred from the old Higgins. Monique Ryan being one of the more vulnerable teal independents might struggle against a Frydenberg challenge especially if he pitches himself as the next Lib leader. She was saved by a large swing to Labor around Balwyn which flowed on as preferences, similar to how Boele pulled off her victory in Bradfield.
Should be aliberal win in 2028. Either Hamer or Frydenberg should win this back from Ryan.
Good point Dan M. I have not looked at the Kooyong results closely but it may well be from what you say that in some areas a winning Ryan 2CP was actually more reflective of the Labor primary, than her primary.
NOTE: Both Bradfield and Kooyong 2025 are the only contests I know of where the Labor flow of preferences to teal IND was lower than the other way around – utterly destroying the logic of tactical voting in these contests
Interestingly Bradfield and Kooyong have the largest Chinese community of the Teal seats and the most diverse so maybe many in the Chinese community have a preference for Labor over Teal.