LIB 3.6%
Incumbent MP
John Flowers, since 2011.
Geography
Southern Sydney. The seat of Rockdale covers most of the City of Rockdale and part of Kogarah council area, in the St George district of Sydney. Suburbs include Sans Souci, Sandringham, Brighton-Le-Sands, Rockdale, Arncliffe, Turrella and Bardwell Park.
Redistribution
No change.
History
The electoral district of Rockdale was first created in 1927 upon the abolition of the multi-member district of St George. It was abolished in 1930, but was restored in 1941. It was held by the ALP continuously from 1941 to 2011.
The original district was won in 1927 by the Nationalist candidate James Arkins. He attempted to move to the seat of Waverley in 1930 unsuccessfully. He went on to serve in the Senate from 1935 to 1937, and again served in the Legislative Assembly as Member for Dulwich Hill from 1938 to 1941.
In 1941, the seat of Rockdale was restored. The seat was won by the ALP’s John McGrath. He served as a minister from 1953 until his retirement in 1959.
McGrath was succeeded in 1959 by Brian Bannon. He held the seat as a backbencher until 1986, when he resigned in order to give Barrie Unsworth a path into the Legislative Assembly. Unsworth had been a member of the Legislative Council since 1978, and had been a minister since 1984. When Neville Wran retired in 1986, Unsworth was elected Labor leader, and Bannon resigned to give him a seat in the Assembly.
Rockdale had been held by the ALP in 1984 with 63% of the primary vote. A massive swing saw Unsworth narrowly survive, winning by 54 votes.
Unsworth held on more comfortably in 1988, despite the ALP losing the state election in a landslide.
Unsworth retired in 1991, and he was succeeded by George Thompson, his former campaign manager. Thompson was re-elected in 1995 and 1999, and retired in 2003.
Thompson was succeeded in 2003 by Frank Sartor. Sartor had served as the independent Lord Mayor of Sydney since 1991, stepping down in 2003 to become a Labor MP in state Parliament. He immediately joined the Carr government’s ministry, serving in a variety of portfolios except for a period on the backbench from 2008 to 2009.
In 2011, Sartor retired and Liberal candidate John Flowers won Rockdale with a 14% swing.
Candidates
- John Flowers (Liberal)
- Jamal Daoud (Independent)
- Lena El-Daghl (Christian Democratic Party)
- Madeleina Snowdon (Greens)
- Steve Kamper (Labor)
- Sam Choker (No Land Tax)
Assessment
Rockdale is a very marginal seat, and it will be hard for the Liberal Party to defend a 3.6% margin.
2011 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| John Flowers | Liberal | 19,072 | 43.3 | +9.9 |
| Steve Kamper | Labor | 15,990 | 36.3 | -14.0 |
| Lauren Moore | Greens | 3,877 | 8.8 | +1.2 |
| Michael Nagi | Independent | 3,274 | 7.4 | +7.4 |
| Anita Strezova | Christian Democrats | 1,881 | 4.3 | +4.3 |
2011 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| John Flowers | Liberal | 20,546 | 53.6 | +13.9 |
| Steve Kamper | Labor | 17,805 | 46.4 | -13.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Rockdale have been split into three parts: north, central and south.
The Liberal Party won a large 58.2% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south. The ALP won smaller majorities in the other areas – winning 51.4% in the centre and 51.8% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 7.3% in the south to 10.3% in the north.
Independent candidate Michael Nagi came fourth, with a vote ranging from 3.1% in the south to 17.9% in the north.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | GRN % | IND % | Total | % of votes |
| South | 58.2 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 13,183 | 29.9 |
| Central | 48.6 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 11,653 | 26.4 |
| North | 48.2 | 10.3 | 17.9 | 9,044 | 20.5 |
| Other votes | 57.1 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 10,214 | 23.2 |
An easy Labor gain. Flowers was in some controvery earlier in the term for claiming a disability pension but being fit enough to be an MP. The story fizzled out but it may be all some voters remember of him.
My prediction: Labor gain, considering this was another of the high-tide Liberal wins of 2011.
John Flowers will get punted here. He has been another very under-whelming MP.
Flowers got in by way of an under the table deal with Nagi to draw some of the Lebanese community who normally would vote for Labor. At the Council meeting following the elction Nagi was repaid by way of support from Flowers for a re-jig of the Council’s Capital works program and bring his proposed youth centre (unscoped) to the top of the list. The motion was rescinded at the next Council Meeting (when all Councilors were available), however, Nagi had bought along a rabble – it was a disgusting incident and hopefully the electorate will remember Flowers (the MP who prefers to beg forgiveness that seek permission) and Nagi’s willful manipulation of the community and also Nagi’s tactics in cohoots with the right wing Libs on Council regarding the re-devleopment of the local public pool which the state governemnt forwned upon and led Peter Poulos to withdraw from chasing an upper house seat
Another easy Labor gain, surprised Flowers one last time. Kamper is a quality candidate and Flowers has been underwhelming to say the least. Labor to have at least a 5% margin post-election.