Coogee – NSW 2015

LIB 8.3%

Incumbent MP
Bruce Notley-Smith, since 2011.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Coogee includes parts of Waverley and Randwick local government areas, including the suburbs of Randwick, Coogee, Clovelly, Bronte, Waverley, Tamarama and Bondi Junction.

Map of Coogee's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Coogee’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Coogee lost Kingsford and Kensington to Heffron, and gained South Coogee from Maroubra.

History
The electoral district of Coogee was first created in 1927, following the abolition of proportional representation in New South Wales. Back in 1927, there were a much larger number of districts covering the eastern suburbs of Sydney, Coogee sitting alongside Botany, Randwick, Waverley, Bondi, Vaucluse and Woollahra.

As the number of seats has declined and Coogee has expanded in size, the seat has become stronger for the ALP and less so for the Liberal Party, and the ALP held Coogee continuously from 1974 to 2011.

The first member for Coogee, Hyman Goldstein, was a Nationalist MP who had previously served as a member for the proportionally-elected Eastern Suburbs district from 1922 to 1925. He was found dead in 1928 at the bottom of the Coogee cliffs in mysterious circumstances. It has been rumoured that his death was caused by the federal Member for Barton, Thomas Ley, who was suspected in the murder of his Labor opponent in the 1925 election, and was later convicted of murder after moving to London.

The Nationalists and the United Australia Party held Coogee until the 1941 election, when they lost to the ALP’s Lou Cunningham. He had previously served as the federal Member for Gwydir from 1919 to 1925 and again from 1929 to 1931. He held Coogee until his death in 1948.

The Liberal Party’s Kevin Ellis defeated Cunningham’s widow at the 1948 by-election. Ellis lost to the ALP’s Lou Walsh in 1953, and the two engaged in numerous election battle over the next decade. Walsh lost to Ellis in 1956, winning the seat back in 1962 for one final term. Ellis held the seat from 1965 until his retirement in 1973.

At the 1973 election, the Liberal Party’s Ross Freeman won by only eight votes. The Court of Disputed Returns overturned the result in 1974, and the by-election was won by former rugby player Michael Cleary of the ALP by 54 votes.

Cleary served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1981 to 1988, and retired at the 1991 election.

Coogee was won in 1991 by the ALP’s Ernie Page, who had been Member for Waverley since 1991, and moved to Coogee after Waverley was abolished. Page served as Minister for Local Government for the first term of the Carr Labor government from 1995 to 1999, and retired at the 2003 election.

Page was succeeded in 2003 by the ALP’s Paul Pearce, Mayor of Waverley. He was re-elected in 2007.

In 2011, Pearce lost Coogee to Liberal candidate Bruce Notley-Smith with a 15.5% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Coogee has been a Labor-leaning seat for the last few decades, and Labor will be hoping to regain the seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Bruce Notley-Smith Liberal 20,224 47.1 +11.4 47.4
Paul Pearce Labor 10,828 25.2 -13.8 26.1
Sue Doran Greens 9,449 22.0 +0.9 21.3
Nathan Jones Independent 956 2.2 +2.2 2.0
Stuart Burney Independent 868 2.0 +2.0 1.8
Andrew McGowan Christian Democrats 581 1.4 +1.4 1.4

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Bruce Notley-Smith Liberal 21,987 58.2 +15.5 58.3
Paul Pearce Labor 15,762 41.8 -15.5 41.7
Polling places in Coogee at the 2011 NSW state election. Clovelly-Coogee in green, Randwick in yellow, Waverley in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Coogee at the 2011 NSW state election. Clovelly-Coogee in green, Randwick in yellow, Waverley in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Coogee have been split into three parts based on key suburbs: Clovelly-Coogee, Randwick and Waverley.

The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 53% in Clovelly-Coogee to 58% in Waverley.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 21.2% in Randwick to 22.2% in Waverley.

Voter group LIB 2PP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Clovelly-Coogee 53.0 21.6 11,621 26.6
Randwick 56.6 21.2 11,598 26.6
Waverley 58.0 22.2 8,231 18.9
Other votes 60.9 20.4 12,178 27.9
Two-party-preferred votes in Coogee at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Coogee at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Coogee at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Coogee at the 2011 NSW state election.

24 COMMENTS

  2. Do Rockdale or Heffron count?

    Coogee was one of only a few seats where the Greens preferenced Labor last time around. I assume they’ll do it again. The ‘put the Liberals last’ campaign may help Pearce here. I thought $2.90 was good odds for him.

    Pearce had the best campaign shirts last time around: “Give Pearce a chance”.

  4. This must be the first election in years Murray Matson isn’t running in one of the Eastern Suburbs seats. What’s happened?!

  5. I think it’s safe to say that Paul Pearce will be re-elected (which is very cheeky on his corflutes as there was no mention of him being booted out last time).

    His local profile and his left-wing credentials will probably see Bruce Notley-Smith a oncer despite promising loads icluding light rail for this corner of the world.

  6. I think the Coalition will hold Coogee, especially with Malcolm Turnbull making regular visits to help campaign.

  7. I Agree with Hawkeye_au that Bruce will retain Coogee but albeit by less than a percent, will be the closest finish in the state IMO.

  8. This seat will be decided on preference flows. If there is a strong preference flow from the greens then this will go labor. Also if Bruce’s vote dips below 40% then its on

  9. Yeah if the preference flows run like they did in Queensland, Pearce will win. Question is, will they?

  11. I think with with a margin of just over 8% and a popular local member, it will just be enough to save it for the Libs, although it will be a paper-thin margin for sure.

  12. I did not know about the infamous Tom Ley. I had always been told Australia has had but one political assassination.

  13. Pearce is popular and the liberal MP has been almost invisible for the last four years. However the liberals are bringing light rail, and last time the Greens voters didn’t follow the how to vote card to put Labor 2nd. If they do follow it this time, this one will be close.

  15. PJ, I think Pollbludger had the primaries, and a variety of different 2PP calculations (all of which had Libs fractionally ahead), in one of his NSW threads.

  16. I’m always interested in how “Nimby” issues play out in local politics. The Light Rail (which once everyone said they wanted) has caused quite a lot of disquiet in Coogee. Some of its adherents have performed triple back-flips and ended up looking like gooses (sic).

    Even the Greens, who normally drive Nimbyism and benefit from its reactionary nature, has been caught out by the community opposition. People are complaining about its route, effect on parking spaces, trees, parklands, the hospital, the noise, the construction costs, disruption to local business etc etc… As well the Coalition may have overplayed its hand by revealing (via its high rise “Urban Activation Precincts”) the true motivation for this project.

    All quite predictable (if you follow infrastructure politics), though disappointing for those of us who actually like city living, and support improvements like light rail.

    If the Libs loose Coogee, sadly, it may partly be because of this.

  17. Thanks Mark – quite right.

    To quote: “The Liberals with a 52-48 lead in Coogee, where the margin is 8.3%. Primary votes are 46% for the Liberals (47.6%), 35% for Labor (25.8%) and 17% for the Greens (21.4%).”

    If Notley-Smith’s vote only falls by 2%, he’ll have done well.

  18. Mr. Notley-Smith was also Mayor of Randwick a few years ago so he has worked up quite a strong local profile.

    Interesting to hear on the radio as well this morning that the Liberal, Labor and Greens candidates have all agreed to not put up any corflutes up at all in Coogee.

  19. No posters on power poles in not only in Coogee. It’s a directive from Energy Australia, who will sue if they are used.
    I commented on the fact that Gabrielle Upton has them at Bondi Beach. The party is not amused. She however has used Waverley Council poles with their permission

  20. Nice story about Coogee here…

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/stop-the-bus-this-is-democracy-in-action-in-coogee-20150326-1m8idl.html

    … which confirms that the light rail may loose Bruce Notley-Smith the seat! (see my post above).

    Well, not confirm (one whingeing voter quoted), but it is intriguing the way public transport infrastructure politics play out. In my seat of Drummoyne, the pre 2011 sitting local member had championed a busway which included a new bridge across Iron Cove. The Greens (and the Liberals then in opposition) joined forces to oppose the busway… “Built the bridge, loose the seat” they chanted at both the Drummoyne and Balmain Labor MPs.

    The both lost.

    The busway was built. It has been hugely successful and popular with public transport users. As will the light rail, regardless of what happens to Bruce Notley-Smith tomorrow.

  21. this may be similar to Prahan in VIc…. inner city….. strong green vote……. I don’t know maybe could be a 3 way contest….? demographic changes make this seat harder for Labor to win
    but Paul Pearce is a good candidate and has a person vote.. Labor by a nose

  22. The Greens rival the Nats for shameless parochialism and irresponsible NIMBYism. Only the Greens could champion renewable energy and oppose windfarms at the same time.

  23. Adam I suspect every party at some time fits into that image depending on your perspective. In this election Labor has promised to ban the CSG industry in specific electorates.

Comments are closed.