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In light of the Farrer by-election result, I think the Nationals’ hold on this seat is under serious threat from One Nation. One Nation already polled 13.65% in Parkes in 2025, the sixth highest in Australia. One Nation 3CP in Parkes (24.3%) was the third highest in Australia. I don’t think the first-term National MP for Parkes will have enough personal votes to withstand a One Nation surge. Parkes defintely will be a big One Nation target at the 2028 election.