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In light of the Farrer by-election result, I think the Nationals’ hold on this seat is under serious threat from One Nation. One Nation already polled 13.65% in Parkes in 2025, the sixth highest in Australia. One Nation 3CP in Parkes (24.3%) was the third highest in Australia. I don’t think the first-term National MP for Parkes will have enough personal votes to withstand a One Nation surge. Parkes defintely will be a big One Nation target at the 2028 election.
I agree that this seat is one where ON seriously threaten the Nats. However it is a seat where there is a very high likelihood that Labor and the Greens will end up third. Depending on how high the ON primary is, the Nats should theoretically be saved by Labor and Green preferences. However, in places like Broken Hill that preference flow might not be assured.
Labor coming third on a 3CP – their primary vote is very low now – could be the difference in Parkes, New England, Maranoa, Farrer possibly also O’Donoghue (Grey) and a few others.
It could be possible that rural or working class Labor voters either switch to One Nation or preference One Nation ahead of the Nationals with the aim of defeating the Nationals. Labor voters, particularly in Broken Hill, may feel empowered to defeat the Nationals in a safe seat, knowing that Labor would never win it. One Nation could just be their protest option.
There was also a strong SFF and minor right wing vote that could get behind One Nation.
According to Redbridge’s May MRP polling, the highest ONP primary vote and 2CP is in Parkes. It is higher in Parkes than in Farrer, New England or anywhere in QLD. I’m not sure if Parkes will be ONP’s best result but I agree that it is under serious threat.
It has the traits of many other rural seats with a high ONP vote. They include:
Towns and outposts with decreasing population and disappearing high streets, especially west of the Newell Highway.
High reliance on mining and agriculture.
Low percentage of people who hold degrees.
Small migrant population.
Prime ON territory. The local state MP was originally elected as a Shooter so a lot of voters here peeled off the major parties a while back. The Nats might survive if Labor fall to third. At this stage, a seat the Nats should be deeply worried about.
Parkes is a good example of regional grievance. Political competitiveness is a good way to address that grievance and get things done. The problem in these regional seats is that they are becoming competitive but the dominant political player in the nation – the ALP – is not in the game and can just go on ignoring these areas as there are no votes – even Senate votes – to be won there.
I wonder if Broken Hill will be won by Labor next election in a contest against One Nation. After all, on a federal level Broken Hill has voted Labor pretty much since federation, not even in the 1996 landslide defeat did it vote National or Liberal. It’s interesting that certain mining towns like Moe, Collie and Moranbah still vote Labor by pretty large margins even though Labor’s vote has died in most former mining areas, like the rest of the La Trobe Valley or the North Bowen Basin. It’s a heartland area for Labor, even if it hasn’t helped them win a seat on state or federal level since the 2003 NSW election.
On a state-level though, Broken Hill did vote SFF over Labor so perhaps it is possible, but that might indicate that Labor could finish third in the seat which wouldn’t be good for One Nation’s electoral prospects(though they realistically would have 40+% primary vote, so they should still win).
@ Mozo
I think Broken Hill is a bit different to the other areas you mentioned as it is Iron Ore mining so not as impacted by the climate wars. The other point if that Labor does not put any effort in Broken Hill because even if they get a spectacular result in Broken Hill it is no where near enough to actually win Parkes. I do agree ONP can win some blue collar votes that the Coalition could not otherwise pick up. With respect to Moe i can see it voting Coalition even in a classic contest against Labor as the Brown Coal industry is rapidly declining as there is no export market.
@Nimalan
Yeah I agree. The La Trobe Valley is over for Labor and their support there is terminal. The 2025 federal election will probably be the last time Labor wins Moe-Newborough for a long time. I think the fact that Moe has been in Liberal seats like Narracan or Monash on a state-federal level has limited the Coalition vote there a bit, as I think the Nationals have more appeal to Moe-Newborough than the Libs(Although the Libs actually beat them there in 2022 Victoria I think).
Moranbah I think is too unionised and is a fly-in fly-out area that has One Nation potential, and the Katter party actually won it in the 2012 QLD landslide with Katter supporting union workers there. I can’t really see One Nation doing the same thing though, so I think out of these mining town heartland areas for Labor it’s the most likely to vote Labor still in the 2028 federal election. They’ll probably win Collie too but that place is in active transition from mining. Broken Hill is a tossup probably because of those reasons you stated.