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This will likely revert to an ALP vs NAT contest. The last Nationals candidate was disendorsed and so the Nationals primary vote crashed. This allowed ONP to easily take over. Legalise Cannabis had the benefit of the prime number 1 spot on the ballot paper.
At the recent federal election, Hunter became an ALP vs ONP contest. The federal ONP brand is quite strong but the state ONP is very different with no ONP MLCs at present.
Labor has the benefit of OPV. Most ONP voters exhaust their votes rather than preference a major party. I believe most Coalition HTV cards don’t recommend preferences to other parties but it varies by seat. The ONP and NAT vote could split thus enabling ALP an easy win.