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This will likely revert to an ALP vs NAT contest. The last Nationals candidate was disendorsed and so the Nationals primary vote crashed. This allowed ONP to easily take over. Legalise Cannabis had the benefit of the prime number 1 spot on the ballot paper.
At the recent federal election, Hunter became an ALP vs ONP contest. The federal ONP brand is quite strong but the state ONP is very different with no ONP MLCs at present.
Labor has the benefit of OPV. Most ONP voters exhaust their votes rather than preference a major party. I believe most Coalition HTV cards don’t recommend preferences to other parties but it varies by seat. The ONP and NAT vote could split thus enabling ALP an easy win.
Chris Minns is clearly concerned about seats through Hunter and intends to replace coal jobs with building trains. While the buffer here is extremely large I wouldn’t be surprised if One Nation were to peal this seat off Labor given similar seats in other states with similar margins were almost lost to One Nation.
One Nation has named investment banker and former NSW trade commissioner Mike Newman as the party’s state leader for the 2027 NSW election. Newman will run in the Labor-held lower house seat of Cessnock. Cessnock is an electorate where One Nation will poll well, however the biggest hurdles will be Labor’s high primary vote and OPV. The Nationals will likely recommend their voters preference One Nation, and could even run dead to assist One Nation. Labor may run a “Just Vote 1” campaign to counter the Nationals recommending preferences to One Nation.