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While I think this seat would flip to One Nation on current polling, as a former resident of this seat I think it might be a little closer than you think. Michael McCormack is a very strong incumbent, with deep roots in Wagga Wagga, of which Wagga Wagga has become more diverse and younger over the last 10 years or so. However, I think One Nation would do well to run up the margins in places like Cowra, Young, Cootamundra, Temora and other small towns that are more distant from Wagga Wagga that have high discontent with the current government and the ACT(Yass, Tumut).
To be fair though, One Nation got 20% on 3CP with a complete ghost candidate and no campaign, which is probably why people kind of think that this seat is an auto-flip the next election.