Labor held on to Mackay at the state election with a small swing against, which people seem to be putting down to the power of incumbency during covid. But even in that election, Whitsunday, Burdekin and Mirani firmed up for conservatives. Conventional political wisdom had Christensen as a goner in 2019, but conventional political wisdom has failed quite often in the last couple of decades. Looking at the pendulum now it’s hard to believe this seat was marginal and targeted by Labor in 2019. The LNP have more margin here than in long term safe seats where Labor haven’t tried for decades. Whatever it is the area likes about Christensen and the LNP, it would be just as true now as it was in 2019. I don’t think the Labor -> PHON voters are coming back to Labor, at least not in similar numbers. It’s not even likely Labor will (or should) put marginal seat resources into this seat. Their path to victory doesn’t go through Dawson.