Braddon – Tasmania 2024

A poll shows Rebecca White as preferred premier, there was rumours that there would be an early Tasmanian state election but I doubt that.

Apparently White has often won the Preferred Premier, or at least been extremely competitive, even when her party was polling terribly.

Seems Tasmanians quite like her personally, but for whatever reason the Labor brand in Tassie has been far less popular.

Latest opinion poll for Tasmanian state voting intentions. LIB 31% ALP 27% JLN 20% GRN 15%.

The JLN primary vote looks unusually high but it could be volatile. I’m convinced that JLN is establishing themselves in middle Tasmania as a third force or the One Nation of Tasmania. Unlike One Nation in Queensland or other populist, third forces like SA Best or NXT in SA, JLN is competing in multi-member seats and so getting just a 17% primary vote means a won seat.

If JLN’s primary vote hits the teens, in Braddon, Bass and Lyons there could be 2 LIB, 2 ALP and 1 JLN, if not 3 LIB, 1 ALP, 1 JLN.

@votante that won’t happen your forgetting Wilkie. Who she doesn’t run against. The status quo will remain in Tas she won’t get a lower house seat. Libs will bassbraddon and Lyons. Wilkie will hold on to Clark and Labor will hold on to franklin

@John, this thread is for the Tasmanian state election, not the federal election. The title can be confusing because federal and state electorates have the same names.

@vipotante my bad yea that would be an accurate assesment

@ Votante,
I think either Libs or Labor will be willing to do a deal with JLN in the event of a hung parliament. While she maybe populist i actually think she is pragmatic. For example she worked with Labor on the Net Zero legislation, Safeguard mechanism, Housing Australia Future Fund & National Reconstruction Fund.

@Nimalan, agreed. Jacqui Lambie has less of an obstructionist reputation. It might be because federal Labor would avoid One Nation similar to how federal LNP would avoid the Greens and that would leave JLN as a more “middle ground” option. She is pro-Voice and at the same time, has classic protectionist tendencies like minimising foreign ownership and boosting Australian manufacturing. If JLN hold the balance of power after the state election, I suspect Labor would rather negotiate with JLN than the Greens.

Agree Votante,
I think Labor would rather negotiate with the JLN rather than Greens. A deal with the Greens will be unpopular among the traditional blue collar wing of the Labor party and may damage its prospects in Lyons. A deal with JLN probably will not be unpopular by the progessive middle class wing of the party and JLN may just request more support for certain industries and maybe a state version of the National Reconstruction Fund. There is no Coal mining/Fossil Fuel industry in Tasmania so that wont be an issue.
.

I can imagine JLN members in any parliament bar the Senate becoming an unmanageable rabble similar to One Nation in QLD in 1998 or the UAP in 2013. It would just splinter into multiple pieces.

Labor may be traumatised from their experiences in going too Green. In 2004, Mark Latham had his forestry policy and was hanging out with Bob Brown, whilst John Howard got cheers from unionised forestry workers. Labor subsequently lost Braddon and Bass. In 2013, federal Labor lost Braddon, Bass and Lyons following a minority Labor government with support from the Greens. Tas Labor would avoid the Greens if they could and may even try to get a preference deal with JLN.

I think JLN can pick up a state seat in Braddon as that this is Senators JL and Tammy Tyrrell’s home turf (both are from NW Tas) and JLN scored 10% in the federal seat of Braddon in 2022.

@Redistributed, I think JLN is focusing just on one very small state for now. ON and UAP grew too fast too quickly with relatively inexperienced, heavy-handed leaders. If only one lower house JLN candidate gets elected, there’s less potential for infighting.

Even if the Liberals do lose the election they’ll definitely have the most seats in Braddon. If JLN does well here then a possible result could be:

Liberal: 4 seats (+1)
Labor: 2 seats (steady)
JLN: 1 seat (+1)
TOTAL: 7 seats (+2)

My hometown seat. The Liberals will negate some of the swing against due to Jeremy Rockliff and by having the same three incumbents they took to the previous election. Don’t see any scenario where they don’t get four seats. Labor will easily retain their two seats as like in Bass they have two good incumbents with a similar level of popularity. A third seat is a stretch.

I think the last seat will be between JLN and Craig Garland. I expect JLN to poll double digits but they will suffer from leakage. If Garland can get a boost of a few percent I think he has a good shot at beating out the fifth Liberal, third Labor and a JLN candidate. Greens have no chance and I suspect they’ll be more focused on gaining seats in the other four electorates. I haven’t been up this way since Christmas so will be interested to see signage and the general sentiment when I visit in two weeks.

Prediction: either 4 LIB, 2 LAB and 1 IND (Garland) or 4 LIB, 2 LAB, 1 JLN

In the Devonport area and surrounds Felix Ellis was the most visible which doesn’t surprise me. Was surprised by how much of Adrian Luke (Labor) I saw but him being from Devonport made it make sense. Unsurprisingly JLN had some presence but not as much as I was expecting. Didn’t see anything from the Greens but it would be a waste for them to target the electorate when Bass, Lyons and second seats in Clark and Franklin are more winnable than Braddon. Still expecting one of my two predicted scenarios from before to happen.

@Zachary
I agree with your assessment and I’m leaning towards 4 Lib, 2 Labor and 1 JLN.
I’m curious as to whether Garland may cannibalise potential JLN votes, they both seem to appeal to a certain type of voter. I also wonder how JLN will perform without Lambie herself running.

Libs are NOT getting 50% of FPV here. They will fall under 50%. they are at their highpoint currently and with the unpopularity of the state liberal and federal opposition. There will be a correction. But the Liberals will win more votes and seats in Braddon than Labor.

new poll out today shows libs ahead in every seat at a state level if replicated at a federal election would see lyons fliiping and even have labor in trouble in normal safe franklin. in braddon libbs are at 49% FPV meaning gavin pearce would be as safe as houses and archer holding bass easily.

@John, Tasmanians just like Queenslanders tends to have political culture separating their federal and state votes. Hence State votes is not a good indicator here plus I don’t think Libs would be anywhere close to winning Clark.

@marh yea not a federal level thats wilkies until he retires

The Jacquie Lambie network – which presently has no seats in the state parliament – would win 10.2 per cent in the seat of Bass, 12.28 per cent in the seat of Braddon, eight per cent in the seat of Franklin and 11.2 per cent in the seat of Lyons – enough to win four seats under the Hare Clark system.

The Liberals are well ahead of Labor in every seat in the poll – 40.28 per cent to 25.87 per cent in Bass, 49.24 per cent to 14.65 per cent in Braddon, 25.55 per cent to 21.37 per cent in Clark, 33.23 per cent to 27.4 per cent in Franklin and 38.46 per cent to 23.26 per cent in Lyons.

Thoughts on election eve

Liberals: if they don’t get four here than we’re looking at Premier White or something even crazier. This is the Premier’s seat and they also have Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch as incumbents. I think Vonette Mead or Giovanna Simpson will get the fourth seat.

Labor: interesting to see some discussions and even a poll indicating that they may only win one seat here. Which would be a crazy result. I still think Anita Dow and Shane Broad will have similar vote totals like the previous two elections which will prevent them from suffering from the Ginninderra effect. I can’t see that changing this time unless Dow being deputy Labor leader gives a significant boost in her vote.

JLN: The lack of high profile candidates will harm them due to leakage but they might still poll enough that it won’t matter.

Others: Garland’s vote held up in 2022 even with JLN on the ballot. I have seen a few signs around near my parents house which is not in his home base. I think it will be very close between him and the JLN candidate. The Greens won’t be anywhere near getting a seat and I have yet to see one of their signs in Braddon. Peter Freshney might do decently but I think having JLN and Garland on the ballot paper will make him get lost in the mix.

My prediction is 4-2-0-1-0
less likely:
4-2-0-0-1
3-2-0-1-1
4-1-0-1-1

Definitely Liberals 3 and Labor 2 – the other 2 seats will be close.
I tip Lambie’s party to get a seat in a close contest. Her support looks strongest in this electorate, but I’m not sure if she’s got candidate who can really win over voters, though her name recognition should get somebody elected. The last seat could go in any direction, but I tip the Liberals to grab it after a fight, because both Labor and the Greens look weak here.

Pretty bad that Rockliff couldn’t even get the Liberals to four here, well done Garland winning after so many attempts! This result wasn’t even in any of my scenarios. We might not be getting Premier White but Garland being in parliament is not at all helpful for Rockliff. I was right about Mead and Simpson fighting for the fourth spot but that won’t even matter unless there’s resignations. Labor’s result here wasn’t great but still better than I expected. Greens did better than I expected and I was shocked that at one point it looked like they had a remote chance of winning a seat. The statewide primary for Labor shows they have a real problem keeping voters from switching to independent candidates, the Greens or JLN and Braddon is a big example of that.

BREAKING: ROCKLIFF COULD CALL ELECTION

Premier Jeremy Rockliff, the leading candidate in Braddon, has announced that he will request that a snap election be called if he loses the no-confidence vote brought against him by Opposition Leader Dean Winter.

Winter also said that he refuses to work with the Greens in government, meaning if both parties keep their promises the Greens will not be part of a minority government or coalition agreement.

The Tasmania Football Club (nicknamed the Devils), the state’s new AFL team, also stated that it is concerned about what could happen if the government changes, as the club may be forced to fold should the stadium not be built.

The no-confidence motion against Jeremy Rockliff has succeeded 18-17, with Speaker Michelle O’Byrne using her casting vote in favour of the motion.

Jeremy Rockliff has stated he will visit the Lieutenant-Governor (Governor Barbara Baker is out of state) and ask for a fresh election, and the Lieutenant-Governor could either allow the request, ask for the Liberals to continue governing but with a new leader, or ask Opposition Leader Dean Winter to form a government with the crossbench.

which 3 crossbenchers voted for it?

@John – Kristie Johnston, Andrew Jenner and Craig Garland voted in favour, while Rebekah Pentland, Miriam Beswick and David O’Byrne voted against.

nvm The motion was supported by Labor, the Greens, independents Craig Garland and Kristie Johnston, and Jacqui Lambie Network MP Andrew Jenner.

that should have been obvious to me before i asked the question. as the two former JLN had been close to the govt and David O’Byrne doesnt like labor.

tbh i dont know why Jenner and Garland did as they are likely to possibly lose their seats in the event of an election. Johnston would be safe though

All this because the AFL is bullying the Tas government into building a brand new stadium when there are Afl grade stadiums in the state. Bellerive and UTAS could be used . But no the AFL will try use Tasmania as a cash cow. What is Dean Winters motivation for all this if he supports the new stadium to? Its not a good look for Labor and id expect a swing against them

Probably another hung parliament. Tasmania’s parliament needs reform because there is no way either party can get a majority with both polling around or below 30% as of mid-May. Use hare-clark for the Legislative council and instant runoff for the Legislative assembly. Keep the same districts but expand new Legislative assembly

@dragons labor have been doing this for about a decade trying to steal government

the other motivation could be the redistribution thats coming up as it would probably deliver an extra 2 seats to the libs in the long run as opposed to only 1 labor. but yes this could backfire as the government will probably try and blame this on labor and rightly so also Jenner will probably be defeated without the Lambie Brand name behind him an without Rebecca Whites personal vote.

Ah yes because the Liberals of various persuasions haven’t tried to ‘steal’ elections before in pressuring Labor governments to go early or move no confidence.

It’s a feature of the Westminster system that oppositions can move no confidence motions. Similarly the Liberals can do the same if they are in opposition. Liberals don’t have an inherited right to govern and they have to earn it.

agreed but they have never done it. they are ust trying to use any excuse to topple the govt and win. it should be reserved for severe breaches

There has been no big scandal in the Tas liberal governemnt to warrant this motion. If budget debt forecasts were the only reason for this then the Victorian government would have lost the last three elections and have no confidence motions every week

Tasmanians will not take well to voting for the third time (fourth for some) in a year especially in the middle of winter. All thanks to Labor but they think they can get a majority without the Greens😂

I don’t see what the point of the no confidence motion was.

@Up the Dragons, I do agree about the system switch, Hare-Clark should be used for the Legislative Council and OPV for the Legislative Assembly. Elections should be at the same time and the electoral districts should be equal in population size, but expand it from the current Legislative Council ones. There needs to be more than 30 seats. I suggest the ACT could do the same.

Based on election results: 3 ALP, 3 Lib, 1 GRN

@ NP
If the ACT adopts single member districts i think Labor will always win 22 seats out of 25. @Blue Not John did a dummy map. There will be a single safe Liberal seat in the Inner South and one more which the Libs will be competative in. The Greens maybe able to win a single seat in the Inner North. Single member districts will not work in the ACT due to less demographic variation.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/51558#comment-793024

Labor thinks based off the federal results they can win the election at this point in time which is why they’ve done this to try and steal government. Surely people will blame labor for making them go back to another election

Using the word ‘steal’ makes it sound like Dean Winter stormed the parliament with tanks and shells.

It’s a perfectly legitimate parliamentary tactic under the Westminster system, and one that has been used by all sides of politics in the past.

Tasmanian voters will be the ultimate judge as to whether Labor should be rewarded for their tactics.

yea but its being used for innappropriate reasons. the reasons are just something they made up to justify it. they have simply decided that based on the results of a good federal election they think they can overthrow the government. so were the jan 6 protests thats a perfectly legal thing to do. Jenner has just signed his own resignation letter by siding with labor and possibly Garland too.

@John Comparing this to January 6 in America is not just false equivalence, it’s complete lunacy. That was an insurrection to overthrow a government, this no confidence motion is just a part of parliamentary process.

You don’t have to defend those precious Liberals left right and centre. They’ve lost this motion of confidence not because of Labor. If enough of the crossbench has had enough of them they’re compelled to support the motion and they’re well within their rights to do so. Without them Labor gets nowhere with this motion. Clearly it resonated with the crossbench and like it or not, a portion of Tasmania also agrees with the nature of the motion.

This sort of ‘Born to Rule’ mentality that the Liberals (And their supporters) have really become tiring to read.

And by ‘Born to Rule’ I mean the kind of constant justification that the Liberals can and should win elections that they have no chance of winning (like 2025 federal, 2025 WA election), and then deeming any sort of legitimate no confidence motions as an attempt to ‘overthrow a government’.

If that was the case Dean Winter and Tasmanian Labor would be going to parliament with pitchforks and torches. We haven’t seen that and no one seriously thinks that our politicians would be dumb enough like the Americans to do it.

As for this election, I don’t see anything other than a hung parliament for either side. The Hare-Clark system means that majority government in this day and age is bordering impossible barring some sort of landslide.

Tommo, I do agree with John’s point that it is probably foolish for Dean Winter to try this move – especially since Winter has mentioned that he doesn’t wish to work with the Greens in any new government. Perhaps he thinks that the new parliament would see Liberals lose support with an expanded set of independents (teal like in the mould of Kirstie Johnson) who get elected which would be a better option for Labor to work with instead of the Greens.

@Yoh An I share that consensus given that Winter hasn’t really proved why he’s worthy of being the premier and this does seem like a sugar hit. However I take issue with the interpretation that it is an ‘overthrow’ of the government which is different to a legitimate process in tabling and moving a no-confidence motion which is within the rules and permitted under the Westminster system. Just because a Liberal government loses a no confidence motion it doesn’t mean they’re ‘overthrown’. They can move into an election and cement their mandate or let the people decide whether it’s time for a new government.

Overthrowing implies illegitimate, illegal and unconstitutional activities, none of which are true in this case.

Agree Tommo, the act of a no confidence motion is perfectly legal under the constitution unlike the Jan 6 acts in the US which were an illegal act.

It appears that Labor is just bolder compared to the Coalition, who have often backed away from their past threats to pass no confidence motions (NT pre 2012 and also against Gillard federally).

An alternate scenario is that the Acting Governor does not grant Rockliff’s wish for an election and demands that Parliament returns to work out a governing arrangement with a different Premier instead (either Winter or a new Liberal leader)