Stretton – Queensland 2015

1. Forde, the independent who got 18%, used to be Robertson’s electorate officer and was his preferred replacement (they’re both Labor Left, while Pegg is Labor Right). Basically factional melodrama… there’ll be a bit of that going on when Labor tries to divvy up “safe” seats like they usually do.

   Labor could’ve held on here under compulsory preferences. A quarter of the vote was for candidates to the left of Labor, and more than half of them exhausted.

2. David Forde is standing again as the Independent candidate and already campaigning full time

3. Big deal. He won’t win. Again.

4. No, he won’t win again, but by once again splitting the left vote and taking primary votes from Labor means Freya Ostapovitch will likely win. She has networked this Electorate well in her first term. I think the LNP have a better shot of holding on here then they do in Sunnybank and Algester.

5. I don’t think he will be as effective in splitting the vote. He appealed to labor people who didn’t want to vote for the labor party. This time people in an electorate like this will be wanting to vote for labor. Forde’s vote at best would half going all to labor plus about 6% of the Freya’s vote should go labor putting this as a likely labor pick up even with Forde running

6. Freya has “networked this electorate well”?! BULLSHIT! All she’s done has get her mug front and centre of as many bloody photos as possible! As for actually SERVING her electorate – and I LIVE in her electorate – she’s done S.F.A.! I used to be an LNP member and even I cannot believe how USELESS she’s been as a local state member!

7. I think you are all missing the point. The people of Stretton, like all electorates, want a candidate (and MP) who genuinely listen to them and know them. It is not rocket science- just old fashioned hard work! Stretton could do a lot worse than Forde, in my opinion.

8. Last election, David Forde published a flyer and also put an ad in a local paper – both in a language other than English – alleging that neither the ALP nor the LNP candidates lived in the electorate. This was blatantly untrue. Electoral office records will confirm this. How can anyone trust a candidate who blatantly lies? For the record, Stephen Robertson did not live in the area when he won the seat. I think the electorate could do a lot BETTER than David Forde.

9. Prior to the last election, the current MP for Stretton was residing in Logan, yes she has a house in the electorate and moved into it. The ALP candidate also only moved into the electorate prior to the previous election. More to the point, neither has contributed much if anything prior to seeking election. All this is underlined by both refusing to enter into a candidate’s debate prior to the last election and neither has responded to the current offer. I stand by my previous statements.

10. “Not Happy” sounds a lot like it could very well be the current Member for Stretton under a pseudonym. If that is the case, I find the pseudonym incredibly ironic, as “Not Happy” is how a lot of the electorate feel about the current Member for Stretton.

11. Forde4Stretton you are agreeing that you lied in published materials. I am not convinced of your ability to represent the area. I saw your behaviour at Warrigal Road P&C meetings and I don’t like it. A lot of the other parents dont either.

12. I note – with great interest – that my theory as to the REAL identity of “Not Happy” has not been refuted. At least SOME people here – and I note David Forde is one of them – have the courage and TRANSPARENCY to publish under their REAL NAME. If my assumption as to the identity of “Not Happy” is correct, then the voters of Stretton must also wonder what else the person behind “Not Happy” has to hide.

13. “Not Happy”, while I am somewhat flattered by your attention I have no interest in entering into a running juvenile debate. You do seem to out yourself over your false Warrigal Road claim. However as you make false claims in a public forum under a false name, I will respond by saying I have not attended Warrigal Road P & C in 3 – 4 years as they clash with my other community commitment and never behaved in anything but a professional manner and only attended one meeting not more as you imply.

14. Nobody has any evidence as to who “Not Happy” is, and unless you do have evidence you should lay off and focus on actually discussing the race.

15. forde is good odds @ 6.00 …

16. But that wouldn’t be politics, then, would it?

17. Oh dear, you are all getting in a little tizz, aren’t you?

    David Forde, have you forgotten you were President of the Warrigal Road P&C in 2013? If you can’t remember that, you clearly are either not too smart or just downright dishonest,

18. Clearly Not Happy you have the wrong David Forde or being dishonest. I have never been a member of, let alone President of Warrigal Road P&C, not least as none of my children have attended that school. Anyone is most welcome to contact the school to confirm.

19. I am deeply concerned about the lack of real choice in Stretton, Freya has shown over the past 3 years that she is not up to the job and has no idea how to serve the electorate, what happened to the promises of a real reduction in electricity costs. The cost of living in QLD continues to outpace incomes, the youth unemployment in the state is a scandal (up to 20% in some regions). QLD still has the highest Motor Vehicle Registration costs in Australia. On the other hand Labor wants to install yet another Union Lawyer with no real connection to the community. How many more Lawyers do we want in State Parliament?

    I agree with Tony Fitzgerald.

    “Mr Fitzgerald, QC, last night (September 10 2014) told the Griffith University School of Criminology’s third biennial lecture named in his honour that Queensland’s political system had been reduced to a “win-at-all-costs”, “whatever it takes” contest between the two parties.

    In a rare public appearance, Mr Fitzgerald said every three years voters supported one side or another knowing they would use the power to benefit themselves, financial backers and “ambitious camp-followers”.

    “As matters stand, neither major party wants political standards to be a significant electoral issue and neither will willingly reform the flawed political process which they control and from which they each benefit,’’ he said”.

    So who do we vote for in Stretton, Freya? Not likely with Campbell Newman’s seat in doubt that would put Tim Nichols in the top job, Tim is an ultra Right Wing politician more in line with the Old Guard Nationals than a progressive small L Liberal, it was Tim who set up Campbell by sacking all those Public Servants in the first year of the NLP’s term. We could vote for the Labor Lawyer, and go back to the incompetent crew who lost us Queensland’s AAA credit rating and a $85 billion debt. Then again we could vote Green, Labor’s junior partner? That leaves us with David Forde, the ex-Labor independent?

    I wonder how many Rusted-on Party voters will continue to follow the failed ideologies of the self-interested career politicians who have shown us all that they have no interest in real public service but are only after the massive pay packet and perks? $380,000 a year for the premier and nearly $200,000 a year for a local back bench member, whilst us local plebs are struggling to pay our power bills buy the kids school supplies. Throw them all out I say, don’t vote for a politician. Don’t play the game that is stacked against us.

20. I see Adrieene Cremin who stood for the ALP in the Council election in 2012 is commenting under her first name only on this site. What a poor showing that was with a 17% swing against the ALP. I understand she has a “History “with the independent Mr Forde. Internal Labor factional bickering?

21. Palaszczuk is campaigning on Youth Unemployment perhaps all us younger people should inherit high paying jobs from our parents just like she did.

22. Palaszczuk showed at the last state election that she really IS just riding on the coat tails of her Dad’s work over the years, as her margin was slashed from an impressive ~22% to UNDER 6%. Just shows how incompetent she really is as a local member. Imagine how useless she’d be in the top job! As for THIS seat, the sitting member has also shown great incompetence, with very little if anything actually ACHIEVED locally this term. People in this area showed at the last BCC election what it thinks of holders of public office who simply go through the motions and don’t step up and actually DO THE WORK, with the ALP candidate (Adrienne Cremin, who replaced a retiring, almost constantly MIA Cr Gail McPherson) soundly REJECTED in favour of an LNP candidate in Kim Marx, who had already shown her dedication and immensely strong work ethic. A dedication to the area which has continued through her first term. The ONLY candidate for Stretton who has a proven similar work ethic and dedication to the area is David Forde. The others – most noticeably the current SITTING member – have either not been seen or at most merely paid lip service to the dedication and work ethic such a position demands.

23. A 16% swing against Palaszczuk sounds roughly average for the last Queensland election, doesn’t say anything about her personally.

24. So a 16% swing against a sitting politician says nothing about them personally? REALLY?

25. Yes, that’s exactly what I’m saying.

    First of all, it wasn’t a 16% swing in Inala, it was 14.6%. Her margin dropped from 21.5% to 6.9% (which is not under 6%). So that’s not a good start in using facts.

    The ALP only retained seven seats at the 2012 election, and the average swing in those seven seats was 14.5%, and the swing in Inala was the median – the swing was larger in three other seats, and smaller in three other seats. So the swing against Palaszczuk was precisely on the average for those seats, which seems like pretty strong evidence that the swing reflected a general swing, not something specific to her.

    I also looked at the ten LNP seats held by the slimmest margins vs Labor, the average swing in those seats was 13.1% and the median was 13.4%. I haven’t had time to look at every seat, but that’s pretty strong evidence that the swing in Inala was pretty typical.

26. Yeh, okay, under 6 / under 7. Close enough! Better settle down there, Benny, sounds like you’re sticking up for Palaszczuk there!

27. Happy to ban you Peter if you want to throw around baseless accusations. I’m sticking up for not pulling numbers out of your arse.

28. As Palaszczuk was the Minister for Transport and Multicultural Affairs in the Bligh Cabinet I would have thought a State wide swing against her party was significantly about all of them Personally.

29. Oh okay, so it’s not personally about her but it’s personally about everyone. Doesn’t sound very personal.

30. What happened to the entertaining post from Adrienne posted at 9:10pm last night, it seems to have been deleted. Lucky I got it emailed, what a cracker.

31. On a side note – taking a pause, if you will – can I just say here Ben Raue, I must thank and congratulate you on this brilliant forum. You’ve done a great job providing this opportunity to discuss and debate, plus provided insightful information on the various seats around the state.

32. Pulling numbers out of my arse? It was an honest bloody MISTAKE! Sheesh!! Settle down!

33. Peter, the fact that you got it wrong isn’t the real problem. The attitude of “Yeh, okay, under 6 / under 7. Close enough!” is the real problem. Think of it this way – if Palaszczuk had been talking about, say, the unemployment rate, and she’d said it was “under 6 percent”, and it was actually under 7 percent, would you go “it’s just an honest mistake”, or would you attack her? Now, suppose she were called out for it and responded “What’s the difference? Close enough!”, how would you respond? Can you honestly say that you wouldn’t accuse her of pulling numbers out of her arse?

    Anyway, to bring the discussion back to Stretton… my instinct is that this could be a bellwether seat for this election. What do people think? I think that the party that takes this seat is going to take the election.

    Why? Because it has an approximately 10% margin, which is around the right value that the average swing would need to be, has a relatively unknown sitting member (the nearly 20% swing in the last election was because of a retirement), all four candidates are returning from last election, and it covers a region that should be fairly balanced in terms of representation (it doesn’t have much by way of rural, but I’d expect similar numbers of conservative- and liberal-minded people).

34. To the haters – Yes, clearly I hid behind my first name only!!! Because “Adrienne” is such a common name, isn’t it? For those of you who feel sad that they missed my post last night, I asked for it to be deleted. Am grateful to the Moderator and will not comment further on that. Interesting that BOTH leaders have ruled out dealing with minor parties or independents should there be a hung parliament. Do any of you have a view on that?

35. A few too many atypical factors in Stretton for it to be indicative of the total election, firstly an underperforming LNP Member who only gained the seat due to Labor infighting and a well known local ex-labor Independent (David Forde) splitting the vote. One on One with a well known local Labor Candidate in the last election would have seen the Blow-in LNP Candidate from Logan City lose the seat. Sadly both Labor & LNP chose to import unknown candidates from outside the electorate in 2012 and local issues were ignored. These poor preselection decisions saw 1/4 of the vote go to an Independent & Green. It will be interesting to see if the Labor vote returns to the unknown Labor offering, or if the underperforming LNP member can retain anything near the 47% primary vote. For mine I am sick of the lies from all political parties and will be voting independent, and put the sitting member last.

36. All leaders rule out dealing with the minor parties and independents before an election, Julia Gillard did that too and then sold out to the Greens, Abbott deals with PUP and that is clearly distasteful to all concerned. In the event of a hung parliament deals will be done as they have been done in the past. We can only hope that Queensland has a strong opposition after this election, we have endured the last 3 years with an opposition in name only. We really need an upper house to stop the excesses of successive governments who have served this state so poorly for so many years. It is offensive to me to see this fine state run into the ground be complete self interest and incompetence from both sides.

37. In any case the leaders after the election will be Tim Nicholls and Cameron Dick.

38. James

    I thought the horse changing would have taken place by now. Could here be a change of Premier whilst a Government is in a Caretaker role?

    MY feelings is that on Night of 31 Jan we will have one resignation but not two.

    If Palaszczuk scrapes home by even the tiniest of margin she will be a hero. Newman will be despised but those that despise him most will have lost there seat and their opportunity to vote him out. so despicability will not knock him off his charger.

    MY prediction is a hung parliament with political power moving to the centre rather than the extremities where it is now. A compromise Premier will have to be liked by both sides of chamber , respected by both sides and be seen as a team player. We could have the best government in decades.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

39. James – I’d agree with your analysis, if not for one little issue. The same candidates are all running again. So the Labor infighting is still going to be an issue… except that things will go better if Labor is able to properly unify. This is one of the reasons why I think this could be a bellwether – Labor and the Labor-originating Independent could turn all of their attention towards defeating the LNP, or they could continue to try to convince voters to just vote 1 for them. If the former, it suggests that Labor is going to properly unify and place the focus where they need to. If the latter, then Labor infighting is going to interfere with the campaign.

    When I said that I thought Stretton could be a bellwether, it wasn’t so much a voter bellwether, but a party bellwether.

    Adrienne – Both of them are, quite simply, lying. If a hung parliament eventuates, neither party will be willing to just reject the result because voters don’t like the idea of a party refusing to work with other elected members outside of their party… especially when it calls into question the whole “only one chamber” system we have that no other state has.

40. Interesting that BOTH leaders have ruled out dealing with minor parties or independents should there be a hung parliament. Do any of you have a view on that?

    It’s stupidity, particularly if there’s a good chance of a hung parliament. Both Tas major parties said that in 2010, and all that resulted in was David Bartlett having to break an election promise to become premier. Not a good look.

    I imagine Paluszczuk would get a quiet word in her ear from the two Peters (Beattie and Wellington) about 1998. If Wellington had to pick a side it’d probably be hers; if he had to choose between 44 Labor MPs or an unstable mish-mash of LNP, KAP, PUP and other assorted fruits and nuts, he’s been in that position before.

41. I note some may view myself as being Labor orientated. I have policy and local contribution issues with both main party candidates, one of the reasons I offered to debate my opponents, who just as at the previous election, refuse either to debate or respond. My loyalty is to the Stretton Electorate. Yes I have strong social justice values and was in the ALP up to 4 years ago. But that is history, even though it appears some ALP members still find it hard to let go. I am standing very much as an Independent. Just Vote 1

42. Independent South Australian Senator Nick Xenophon seems to be doing a very good job for his state, independent Senator Brian Harradine served Tasmania from 1975 to 2005 with considerable influence. Peter Wellington and Liz Cunningham both Queensland Independents have served their electorates with distinction. So nothing wrong with voting for an independent, at least we get a real representative for the electorate and not a faceless man/woman making up the numbers and toeing the Party/Union line.

43. Aielyn, I agree with your comment regarding strategy for labor to take Stretton. The problem I have in following your suggestion , however, is that – despite having lived in the seat for nearly 10 years, I just don’t KNOW anything about the ALP candidate for Stretton, other than his name and the fact he ran in 2012. Likewise, a lot of people don’t know the sitting member, either! I would consider giving Pegg a preference on my ballot paper, but I know NOTHING about him. I know plenty about Ostapovitch – none of it positive enough to entice me to give her any acknowledgement on the ballot paper other than an empty box – much like my assessment of her contribution to the electorate over the past term – a totally empty box. So, for me, until or unless I learn more about Duncan Pegg, my vote will be a Vote 1 only, I’m afraid

44. Forde4Stretton – “vote 1” is one of the most insidious features of the Queensland electoral system. Can you honestly tell me that you have no preference between a Labor government and an LNP government? Can you honestly tell me that, if you aren’t elected, you don’t care who is? You claim that your loyalty is to the Stretton electorate, yet you are using an electoral technique that is basically “my way or the highway”, which is highly egotistical.

    You clearly have issues with the ALP. And they clearly have issues with you. But if you were in the ALP for quite some time, you clearly share a lot of values, even if you disagree on a few. Meanwhile, I am willing to bet that the LNP, especially as they currently stand, share little in common with you. By encouraging a “vote 1”, you are basically splitting the left-side vote three ways (with the Greens present), thus making it far easier for the LNP to win. If, on the other hand, you encourage preferences, the vote is no longer split – if you don’t make it into the 2CP, you and your voters still get a say in who is elected.

    I realise it sounds a lot easier to go “Just Vote 1” – it sounds wonderfully confident and proclaims that you don’t support any of the parties… but it’s irresponsible, especially when it might result in the LNP getting another 3 years. Be a man of integrity, rather than the typical politician only looking out for themselves – come up with a real preference sequence (if you’re dissatisfied with the ALP, might I suggest Forde>Greens>ALP>LNP) and encourage your supporters to follow that, rather than “just Vote 1”.

    Peter – as a conscientious voter, you should do everything you can to learn about the candidates, and actually distribute preferences appropriately. Anybody that does a Vote 1, whose chosen candidate gets knocked out, loses all right to complain about who specifically got elected, or what they do.

    Since you’re on this site, you clearly are a conscientious voter. Do your research, into all of the candidates. And just to be clear, I take that quite to the extreme – I number everything on the Federal Senate ballot, and I investigate every party ahead of time to do so.

45. Optional preferential voting was introduced in Queensland by the Goss Labor government and used in the 1992, and subsequent State elections. (Clearly as a way to defeat the cross preferencing of the Liberals & Nationals in 3 cornered contests and advantage the Labor Party, now it works against them in their loose partnership with the Greens).

    A survey conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland shows that 60% of Queenslanders in the February 2001 election cast a “number 1″ only vote. Another 32% of voters allocated all preferences, whilst only 8% chose a partial preference vote.

    Clearly the vast majority of Queensland Voters use the just vote 1 technique (so effectively used by Peter Beattie). So Aielyn to criticize the Independent for Stretton, David Forde for advocating its use in Stretton is out of step with popular opinion.

46. John, I think you have cause and effect backwards. Candidates have been encouraging “just vote 1”, and many people will just do as their chosen candidate suggests.

    That what I say is “out of step with public opinion” is entirely beside the point. David Forde’s job, if he’s elected, isn’t to just be a mouthpiece of his electorate, to parrot popular opinion. It’s to make the judgements that the typical voter has neither the time nor the will to make with proper research and understanding. And it should start with the election itself – David Forde should determine, beyond himself, which candidates would be better choices for representing his electorate, because most voters don’t have the time to learn things about each candidate.

    This is also why so many candidates just vote for the major party that they prefer – because it’s easier to know what they need to know about the major party. Of course, that also means not knowing at all about an independent… so actually encouraging that sort of behaviour is counter to what Forde wants.

    And to be quite honest, I don’t give a crap what public opinion is. If public opinion said that we should kill all black people, I’d still be against it, and would criticise any politician that supported it. I put what is right ahead of what is popular, and so should any candidate.

    And you quoted numbers from 2001… what makes you think that those numbers are representative of today’s pattern, anyway?

    Conscientious candidates should use their support to ensure the best possible result for their supporters, just as conscientious voters should do their own research and allocate preferences properly.

    Oh, and by the way, “criticize” is the American spelling.

47. Aielyn, Check your paragraph 3, I think you will find that Candidates don’t vote for Major Parties, voters do. Perhaps you should proof read your post before signing off by trying to correct my spelling choices. (Spelling Nazi’s shouldn’t throw stones). 😉

48. Great job deflecting away from facts, John. And I wasn’t being a spelling nazi – this is an Australian site, discussing Australian elections, so it seems reasonable to expect Australian spelling and not American spelling.

    Can I take the lack of any actual response to the rest of what I said for agreement?

49. Aielyn, you are right, I AM a conscientous voter, so I WILL be doing my research on the candidates I’m not familiar with, but my point was that the candidates are seeking my vote, so THEY should be selling themselves and not expecting voters to do the work to find out. Nor, I believe, should they NOT be educating the electorate about themselves. THat, in my mind, is arrogant and disrespectful to the electorate. Unless, of course, they WANT the electorate to simply vote along party lines and NOT do their research! As for preferences, it is up to the VOTERS to delegate preferences, if any, and not the candidates. Nor is it for anyone else to try and tell anyone how to vote. Sure, YOU believe not allocating preferences is not the way to go, but that’s YOUR opinion.

    Choosing to “vote 1” is akin to allocating an equal last preference to every other candidate than the chosen candidate, and an entirely legitimate means of doing so under the Queensland optional preference system.

    I find it totally LUDICROUS that you say that anyone who votes for a candidate who does not get elected CANNOT then complain about the decisions of the elected candidate. Do you even KNOW how politics works!? WHY, in that case, are you even PARTICIPATING in the political process if you do NOT believe that anyone other than those who vote for the elected candidate can express their opinion of that elected candidate? Because that is what you are saying!

50. My money is on Freya to win with a new margin of 2%!

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