Stretton – Queensland 2015

LNP 9.55%

Incumbent MP
Freya Ostapovitch, since 2012.

Geography
Southern Brisbane. Stretton covers the suburbs of Kuraby, Calamvale, Drewvale, Stretton and parts of Runcorn and Sunnybank Hills, at the southern end of the City of Brisbane.

History
Stretton was created in 2001, replacing the seat of Sunnybank which had existed since 1992.

Labor’s Stephen Robertson held the seat of Sunnybank and then Stretton continuously from 1992 to 2012. He served as a minister in the Beattie/Bligh government from 1998 to 2012.

In 2012, Robertson retired, and Stretton was won by LNP candidate Freya Ostapovitch with a 19% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Stretton has tended to be a reasonably safe Labor seat up until the 2012 election, and Labor will be hoping to win it back as part of a statewide pro-Labor swing.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Freya Ostapovitch Liberal National 13,000 46.85 +9.75
Duncan Pegg Labor 7,968 28.72 -24.86
David Forde Independent 5,259 18.95 +18.95
Brian Sadler Greens 1,521 5.48 -3.84

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Freya Ostapovitch Liberal National 14,239 59.55 +19.03
Duncan Pegg Labor 9,670 40.45 -19.03
Polling places in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election. North-East in orange, North-West in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election. North-East in orange, North-West in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Stretton have been divided into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.

The LNP topped the poll in all three areas, winning 46-48% of the primary vote in each area. The LNP vote was strongest in the north-east.

The ALP’s vote ranged from 22.5% in the north-east to 32.8% in the south.

The vote for independent candidate David Forde ranged from 16.7% in the south to 24.8% in the north-east. Forde outpolled Labor in the north-east.

The LNP is estimated to have won the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.6% in the south to 64.2% in the north-east.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % IND prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
North-West 46.17 30.29 18.19 58.23 7,659 27.60
South 45.77 32.79 16.66 56.56 6,646 23.95
North-East 47.95 22.45 24.79 64.18 5,558 20.03
Other votes 47.65 28.17 17.51 60.28 7,885 28.42
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate David Forde in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate David Forde in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election.

184 COMMENTS

  1. Peter – I didn’t say that those who voted for a candidate that didn’t get elected while voting just 1 can’t complain. I said those who vote for a candidate that doesn’t even get into the 2CP while just voting 1 can’t complain. Just as not voting at all means you forfeit your right to complain in all cases, so too do you forfeit your right to complain if you refuse to express preferences and thus allow your vote to be exhausted (but this statement applies only if the vote actually becomes exhausted).

    Preferential voting is also known by another name: Instant Runoff Voting. Basically, it works like you’re voting repeatedly – each time, dropping one candidate from the election, until someone reaches majority. If you allow your vote to exhaust, then you are, in effect, refusing to vote in the final election, the one that chooses the candidate. And if you don’t vote, you don’t get to complain.

    Let me be absolutely clear – those who vote fully, or sufficiently to prevent their vote from exhausting, retain their right to complain. So for instance, if you vote 1 IND and vote 2 ALP in this seat (and then don’t preference between Greens and LNP), and it comes down to ALP vs LNP, your vote went to ALP, and you have the right to complain. On the other hand, if you vote the same way but it came down to LNP vs Greens, then your vote does not affect the outcome, and you lose the right to complain, as you chose not to have a say in the result.

    And if you’d actually read what I’d said, you’d have understood that.

    And sure, you should place any candidate who makes the effort to inform you about their policies, etc, ahead of those that make no effort… but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t assign preferences amongst those who don’t make the effort. Why? Because it is still possible for them to win, and you are, as I said, giving up your right to complain about the winning candidate if you fail to vote in the final 2CP by not assigning preferences to either of the two final candidates.

    Because as I said, failure to give preferences to those in the 2CP is exactly equivalent to failing to vote at all if only those two candidates were in the election.

  2. If Freya does win I would really like to know who she will support for Premier? It seems like Ashgrove is going to be difficult for Campbell and we have so many others putting their hands up behind his back. Perhaps this is why she is refusing to attend the Stretton Candidates Debate proposed by David Forde the Independent Candidate for Stretton. In fact both the representatives of the major parties are refusing to face the people in a public candidates debate, what are they afraid of?

  3. David Forde did invite the other candidates to a debate – in February 2015. Are we surprised he had no response?

  4. Adrienne, the offer was sent before the election was called as a suggested timeframe. They could have got back to me with an alternative date. But no, just like last election, they are not interested in fronting the public in a forum setting where their (and my own) positions and track record can be debated / questioned.

  5. I wondered why Campbell called the election early, clearly he was so worried about Freya’s performance at David Forde’s debate he did all he could to avoid her attending.

  6. Pumpkin? Is that Merri Rose ex ALP State Member (jailed for 18 months)? or Gordon Nuttall Ex ALP State Member (jailed for 15 years) or Bill” D’Arcy EX ALP State Member (jailed for 11 years) not familiar with the nickname.

  7. Well, I’m not sure what actually an “ex-Union representative” means. If we are talking about union membership, I am quite sure that the Labor and Independent candidates are both union members – as I am. Stephen Robertson headed up a Union prior to his winning the seat of Sunnybank (later Stretton). Duncan Pegg certainly has worked in a Union – standing up for those who work hard to support their families. He is smart, articulate and passionate. He also worked previously for a law firm prominent in helping workers protect their rights. As a Labor supporter, this is the kind of person I DO want representing me.

  8. We certainly need a smart articulate and passionate representative in Stretton, and being articulate I look forward to hearing him at the Stretton Debates organised by the Independent Candidate David Forde, do we have an agreed date yet?

  9. Thanks Meg, more than happy to send you my newsletters and flyers that have been distributed throughout the electorate with such information. All I need is your postal or email details.

  10. David Forde knocked on my door a few days ago, he has been door knocking and speaking to the people of Stretton for months, it is the first time I have seen any political hopeful/representative anywhere my street. I am sure he would be happy to talk to you too Meg, we all deserve the opportunity to speak with and hear from all the candidates in Stretton, that is why I fully support a Public Debate, I wonder why the ALP & LNP won’t let candidates attend these public forums?

  11. Duncan Pegg is doing door knocking every weekend as I heard from friends living in the area. Duncan is busy with talking to people on the streets, this is probably why he hasn’t got time to be in this forum.

  12. Only door knocking on Weekends? How civilised, he must be confident. He hasn’t got anywhere near my place so far. Sorry Adrienne I don’t give out my address to ladies on the internet, perhaps you could try Tinder.

  13. I can easily understand Duncan is a lawyer, he has his responsibilities. If he can do well on his job, means he can do well for people of Stretton.

  14. Meg, if Duncan doesn’t have time for the electorate now, how can we be sure that if elected he will give his full efforts to us then? It seems the only one who is putting a full time effort into Stretton is David Forde. Is Freya still on Christmas Holidays?

  15. Oh James Greene you are funny!!! I have the electoral roll for Stretton and -amazingly – your name does not appear! So you either don’t live in Stretton or you are using a pseudynom – or you don’t exist at all!”

  16. I am not Duncan’s secretary, I won’t be able to tell you Duncan’s diary. I am sure Duncan will be good for Stretton.

  17. Thanks James Grrene. Great suggestion! I have never been on that website but, clearly, you are familiar with it!

  18. I am really disappointed in your delayed comeback Adrienne, I was hoping for a more detailed spray like you gave Hardgrave a few days ago. I feel cheated.

  19. Forde4Stretton is a joke. The centrepiece of his platform last election was that “if elected” he’d establish a website promoting Stretton businesses. I assume he’s hawking this again. Note to Forde: Setting up a website does not require parliamentary legislation. If this is such a passion, why wasn’t it done three years ago from outside the parliament.

    No this seat will come down to Pegg v Ostapovitch. We can’t yet fully compare policies for the future of Qld aside from announcements made to date, eg more teachers and nurses from Labor v the porkbarrel of another Sunshine Coast rail line (& don’t rail lines announced in election campaigns have a good history – Not !).

    Until we have the full suite of policies from both parties, we can only go on the Government’s record – unprecedented public sector job losses, cuts to community organisations, disregard for civil liberties, IR regression, disgruntled public sector doctors (nurses, you’re next), appointment of a Chief Justice to the chagrin of the legal fraternity.

    The biggest issues will be the Qld economy and asset sales (oops, “leases”, apologies to Can-Do). The LNP advertising to date focuses on jobs created, yet in the last 12 months, the Qld unemployment rate has jumped from 5.8 % to 6,9% (ABS series).

  20. A candidate who only puts in a part time effort to a campaign will only put in a part time effort when elected. The campaign is where you show (PROVE TO) your prospective electorate how COMMITTED you are. How HARD you will work for them. This pathetic, part time, WEEKEND stuff just goes to show how pathetic and part time Pegg will be in representing Stretton if he gets elected. Oh, and despite finding a LITTLE information (well engineered, sales-pitch campaign information at that!) I managed to find out about Pegg, I am STILL waiting for him to sell himself to we little voters of the electorate he CLAIMS he will passionately represent. So far, that box is still empty!!

  21. Mark (Mitchell), as you are part of Pegg’s campaign team and the husband of the defeated ALP candidate in Karawatha at the last BCC election, I expect little less. Yes, a website is just a part of what I will do if elected, so what. Sure if I hadn’t been involved in numerous local community organisations over the years as I still am, or out there raising funds for charity, I might have been able to fit in setting up such a concept.

  22. My Apologies Ben, being new at expressing my political views on-line I fell into the trap of responding to experienced political campaigners, I promise I won’t respond to Adrienne’s taunts again.

  23. The odds first in Streeton: ALP $1.37 ($1.60); LNP $4.00 ($2.70)

    Firstly, I am only talking Brisbane Seats here, but since the Election was called and I go by the markets put by in this case by Sportsbet, I will start with Streeton. where from the odds above, its one of the very few seats where the ALP have firmed in the markets.

    In many other Seats, (and even in seats where the ALP are still favourites) the LNP have firmed up noticably. For example, Mt Cootha which is the neighbouring seat to Ashgrove, the money for Saxon Rice has come in from $12 to $5 and the ALP has drifted from $1.05 to $1.20 and the ALP is now at $1.20 out from $1.05.

  24. Angus you missed out the full odds for Stretton ALP $1.37 LNP $4.00 David Forde $6.00. Odds for the Election as a total is LNP $1.05 ALP $9.00.
    It seems (from the betting pool) that David Forde has a better chance of winning Stretton than the ALP have of winning Government.

  25. Thanks John. Sorry for my ignorance here. I have noticed that this David Forde was the independent candidate in 2012, and he was on Stephen Robertson’s campaigns. I noticed that he polled something like 18.95% and the ALP polled about 28%.

    Surely the 2012 result has to be corrected somehow, but with the ALP and LNP fielding the same candidiates as last time, the main winner surely appears to be Freya Ostapovitch.

  26. Angus, Why would a 2012 Election result need correction? Surely the voters got it right? My point is I guess, that Labor staffers on this forum are calling the independent candidate David Forde a “Joke” he is at odds of 6:1, whereas the Labor Party overall are at odds of 9:1 (are they a bigger Joke?). I have always voted Liberal for the past 45 years, but I don’t consider the LNP to be Liberals (more like Nationals) Labor has left Queensland with a massive Debt so who can I vote for (can we ever forget the Health Payroll scandal). The LNP seem like a unbackable favourite to win Government so I am going for an Independent (the Upper House you have when you are not allowed an upper house). David Forde has been the only Candidate who has taken the time to engage with our community on any real level, and despite his Labor background he is now truly independent (the hate from the Labor Staffers on this site proves that) apart from that he is ex-Army, someone who has put his life on the line for our country. I have a great deal of respect for those who have served.

  27. how and why does Adrienne have a copy of the Stretton electoral role – is that even legal???

    searching for certain people definitely sounds like a huge breach of privacy to me.

  28. Misuse of an Electoral Roll for purposes other than legitimate electoral functions could be called Stalking!

  29. s.60 Electoral Act 1992 does provide for a member of the public to obtain a print or non-print copy of the Electoral Roll for inspection.
    In part, it says:
    “The commission must make available for inspection by any person, without fee, a copy of the most recent printed version of the publicly available part of all electoral rolls”. So, on the face of it, Adrienne is not breaking any laws.

  30. ELECTORAL ACT 1992 – SECT 177
    177 Misuse of restricted information
    (1) If a copy of an electoral roll is made available to a person or body under section 61, a person must use any information obtained from the copy only for purposes set out in subsection (2).

    Maximum penalty—20 penalty units or 6 months imprisonment.

    (2) The purposes are—

    (a) any purpose related to an election under—

    (i) this Act; or

    (ii) the Local Government Act 2009; or

    (iii) the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Communities (Justice, Land and Other Matters) Act 1984; or

    (b) any purpose related to a referendum; or

    (c) checking the accuracy of information on the electoral roll; or

    (d) the performance by a member of—

    (i) the Legislative Assembly; or

    (ii) a local authority;

    of the member’s functions in relation to electors enrolled on the electoral roll; or

    (e) the performance by an official or employee of a political party of the person’s duties in relation to electors enrolled on the electoral roll.

  31. Alright this has been going on for over a week, can you guys just exchange contact and stop commenting on Stretton. I know its a key seat but it can’t be that interesting

  32. This is an interesting Electorate as the independent Candidate David Forde has provided residents with a alternative choice to the sale old 2 Party debate, it seems Labor is annoyed by this. Anything that annoys the Major parties and disrupts their duopoly on power should be supported and not shut down. Queensland needs fresh blood like David Forde and a voice for the people and not a follower of party doctrine.

  33. Not at all ‘John Swift’ all I’m saying is that everyday theres only stuff about Stretton and it just hides stuff people talk about in other seats. If Forde wins good on him he seems like a good candidate and I’d wish him well but most discussion on Stretton is finger pointing about where Forde has been and Swifts childish remarks about labor and more of a discussion about Forde’s credentials

  34. The real point is people are not talking about other seats on this forum and self appointed moderators like yourself will discourage any vigorous debate.

  35. Its pretty discouraging when you know its gonna be filled with stretton. Its not really a debate its just an argument and its getting pretty childish. If someone likes Forde as an MP for Stretton thats ok there entitled to their opinion, surely your interested in other seats

  36. I agree with Observer, this conversation has gotten quite tedious. If you have actual new things to add about what is going on in Stretton in terms of the campaign, or the issues, then please contribute them, but accusations and insults are not interesting.

  37. With the permission of the moderator, I would like to respond to these comments….For those of you who are not aware of how campaigning works, once someone registers to stand for a particular seat whether it be Federal, State or Local Council, they are issued with information on people enrolled in the area from the Electoral Commission. Any information given out when people enrol is public, unless those people have asked specifically for their addresses to be withheld with very good reasons provided. Therefore, certainly in Stretton, all candidates will have been provided with contact details of all registered voters in this electorate. And, by default, their campaign teams can probably access them as well. So forget about allegations of stalking, breaching legislation, etc. This is exactly what happens every time an election occurs. So, anyone who has registered to run in your electorate will have contact details for you unless you have specifically requested this information to be withheld. Please don’t try to make this something it clearly isn’t.

  38. Okay, thanks for that clarification. I’d appreciate it if the conversation could move on now, or I’ll consider closing this page’s comments down for a few days.

Comments are closed.