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This is one to watch. Federal Labor polled strongly in Berowra, the federal seat containing this state seat, at the last federal election.
The semi-rural suburbs in the west could see big swings to One Nation. The Liberals have a lot to lose elsewhere. Part of the vote will go to One Nation. Also, the suburbs along the train line are trending Labor due to young professionals seeking high-rise living. In lower density suburbs, there is a teal-ish, tree-change demographic.
Because of OPV, the grievance voters and protest voters, who lean to One Nation, don’t have to preference anyone. This puts the Liberals at a disadvantage if most of them are ex-Liberal voters.