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I wonder how would One Nation perform in this seat as there is a polled RM poll released which found One Nation is performing quite high on Middle Eastern Immigrants at 17% but I think is has more to do with Middle Eastern Christians and this seat has a large Assyrian Community? I heard this seat had amongst the highest support of ONP in 2019.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10341-voting-intentions-by-country-of-birth-september-2026
@Marh
This seat has a lot of semi-rural areas which ONP will be strong. The area of St Clair/Erksine Park is Anglo and more like Lindsay it also has a lot of Southern/Eastern Europeans. I agree i think ONP may do well among Middle Eastern Christians but certainly not Muslims. SW Sydney including this seat, Fowler and Werriwa have strong Assyrian/Chaldean community. Interestingly Pakistanis have the strongest support for Greens at 32%
McMahon is undoubtedly one of the most religious seats in the country. Atheism is low and the percentage of people who follow the world’s most followed religions (Christianity, Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism) is much higher than in most other seats. Overall, it is a working-class, socially conservative seat.
Scott Morrison had appeal in 2019 as he portrayed himself as a Christian man of faith, and religious values influenced swing voters. There was a fairly strong One Nation vote in 2019. The Christian Democrats got more votes here than in rural electorates that they ran in.