Manly – NSW 2027

James Griffin will retire this election.

This could be competitive if a teal independent runs. The loss of his personal vote and the electoral interest in non-major party alternatives (independents, One Nation etc) will make it harder for the Liberals.

29-year-old Adelaide Cuneo, former Vice President of the NSW Liberal Women’s Council, has been announced as the Liberal candidate for Manly. She has made a name for herself in the Liberal Party by backing a push to introduce gender quotas after the disastrous federal election result, and for her public comments pleading with the federal Liberal Party not to dump a commitment to net zero by 2050.

She has worked in senior NSW Government roles, including political/government-office experience. She is now working for Energy Leadership Australia, an environment and energy not-for-profit, on policy aimed at delivering practical outcomes and more affordable energy. She has also worked in hospitality and trained as a chef, and comes from a family that operated a small business.

Her stated focus includes supporting local businesses, roads, transport and infrastructure, affordability and delivering outcomes for the Manly electorate.

Elouise Massa will run as an independent candidate for Manly. Elouise is a North Balgowlah local, mother of four, former broadcast journalist, small-business owner and holds a Master of Human Rights Law and Policy. Massa lost her two-year-old son Joe to catastrophic medical errors at the former privately run Northern Beaches Hospital. Amid her unimaginable grief, she and her husband successfully lobbied the NSW government to take over the Northern Beaches Hospital, and fought for landmark legislation called “Joe’s law” to prohibit new public-private partnership arrangements for the provision of acute hospital services such as emergency departments.

She is now standing as an independent candidate and says her priorities include healthcare, cost of living, small business, housing and infrastructure, transport, the environment, equality and integrity in government.

So Manly is being presented with two distinctly different choices:

An Independent candidate whose public profile has largely been built through community and health advocacy.

And a Liberal candidate with experience working inside government and the political system who is seeking to continue Liberal representation of the seat.

Both women bring different experiences and perspectives to the contest.

In the absence of James Griffin’s personal vote, I think Massa will be very competitive and could even win due to her high profile in the Northern Beaches. Her profile has been elevated by her campaign to return Northern Beaches Hospital to public hands and prohibit new public-private partnership arrangements for the provision of acute hospital services. Most importantly, the former Coalition government’s decision to run the Northern Beaches Hospital under a public-private partnership has done a lot of damage to the Liberal brand on the Northern Beaches, while the successful advocacy by independents at state and federal levels to reverse the public-private partnership have strengthened support for community independents on the Northern Beaches. Massa’s campaign will draw voters’ attention to this significant public policy failures by the former Coalition government and how independents have helped to reverse this disastrous decision, driving voters away from the Liberals and towards independents.

For these reasons, I personally think Massa will be the flavourite to win Manly.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-liberal-party-is-drowning-this-29-year-old-rebel-wants-to-be-its-lifeboat-20261001-p611nl.html