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This seat bucked the state trend last time I wonder if Labor continues to poll well if they can peal this seat off the Nationals.
Spacefish, Labor in most states have struggled to win these sorts of ‘regional’ seats off the Nationals. I probably see this seat like Morwell in Victoria or Burdekin in Queensland being dominated by the mining sector (a key primary industry). In these seats, despite Labor running suitable and strong candidates they have failed to get over the line even during favourable election years.
Upper Hunter in its past incarnation has always been a Nationals held seat, and even if Labor wins it will not form part of a durable majority. Labor is better off adding extra suburban seats and perhaps supporting a high profile independent for Upper Hunter and other rural seats.
Could see a pathway for Labor if One Nation run hard and there is vote splitting on the right?
Labor has actually never won this seat before even during the wranslide
This is the story of personal votes. Short of a landslide will remain nat held
The Nationals swing last election could’ve been the sophomore surge following the 2021 by-election.
The largest bet I placed in the 2019 election was for the Nationals to hold here. It seems there was an assumption that it would fall in 2019 just because it was the second-most marginal Coalition seat (after East Hills).
There has already been a lot of vote splitting here in recent times – SFF managed 22% in 2019, and the Nationals primary has been in the 30s since 2015.
If the nats can hold this in 2027 they should be able to hold afterthe redistribution
Give it about 10 years and upper Hunter will probably be unwinnable.