Stretton – Queensland 2015

LNP 9.55%

Incumbent MP
Freya Ostapovitch, since 2012.

Geography
Southern Brisbane. Stretton covers the suburbs of Kuraby, Calamvale, Drewvale, Stretton and parts of Runcorn and Sunnybank Hills, at the southern end of the City of Brisbane.

History
Stretton was created in 2001, replacing the seat of Sunnybank which had existed since 1992.

Labor’s Stephen Robertson held the seat of Sunnybank and then Stretton continuously from 1992 to 2012. He served as a minister in the Beattie/Bligh government from 1998 to 2012.

In 2012, Robertson retired, and Stretton was won by LNP candidate Freya Ostapovitch with a 19% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Stretton has tended to be a reasonably safe Labor seat up until the 2012 election, and Labor will be hoping to win it back as part of a statewide pro-Labor swing.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Freya Ostapovitch Liberal National 13,000 46.85 +9.75
Duncan Pegg Labor 7,968 28.72 -24.86
David Forde Independent 5,259 18.95 +18.95
Brian Sadler Greens 1,521 5.48 -3.84

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Freya Ostapovitch Liberal National 14,239 59.55 +19.03
Duncan Pegg Labor 9,670 40.45 -19.03
Polling places in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election. North-East in orange, North-West in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election. North-East in orange, North-West in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Stretton have been divided into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.

The LNP topped the poll in all three areas, winning 46-48% of the primary vote in each area. The LNP vote was strongest in the north-east.

The ALP’s vote ranged from 22.5% in the north-east to 32.8% in the south.

The vote for independent candidate David Forde ranged from 16.7% in the south to 24.8% in the north-east. Forde outpolled Labor in the north-east.

The LNP is estimated to have won the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.6% in the south to 64.2% in the north-east.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % IND prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
North-West 46.17 30.29 18.19 58.23 7,659 27.60
South 45.77 32.79 16.66 56.56 6,646 23.95
North-East 47.95 22.45 24.79 64.18 5,558 20.03
Other votes 47.65 28.17 17.51 60.28 7,885 28.42
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate David Forde in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate David Forde in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election.

184 COMMENTS

  1. We can but hope so. It was amusing to see the post decrying Adrienne for using only one name being posted by “Hardgrave” also using only one name. Could be Fred Hardgrave for all we know.

  2. I had a knock on the door this morning from representatives of the Labor Campaign requesting permission to put a Labor sign next to my David Forde sign, very strange this sign poaching tactic. Has anyone else had this happen in Stretton? With Labor a unbackable favourite in this electorate and David Forde at 11:1 I wonder why they are this desperate?

  3. Forde being a former labor member would only be taking votes really off labor so the campaign is probably trying to encourage Forde voters to preference labor to strengthen chances. The local campaign team wouldn’t ever just assume its in the bag even though it will probably fall to labor

  4. I see Labor are running a Lawyer in Stretton and in Sunnybank, do we really need more Lawyers in State Parliament?

  5. Met one today, Wishart. Sounded nice until he learned I didn’t vote for him, Then he changed and got all “shitty” (ain’t that typical of lawyers?). Shame, because he’s probably in with a chance! Mind you, I didn’t vote for the incumbent, either.

  6. Yes, both ALP candidates are lawyers. Both articulate, smart and dedicated to standing up for the people they represent. The current Stretton representative doesn’t have qualifications that I am aware of. If I am wrong, I apologise. I am not aware of any qualifications that the Independent candidate holds, either. But the last Stretton MP headed up a Union before he stood for Parliament. I want a representative who understands legislation and policy and is well able to stand up for their constituents. I am well aware of the records of both ALP candidates and, I have to say, both stand to lower their income on election. Does that sound like “born to rule” to you?

  7. “John Swift” my post was not taken down for legal reasons….it was at my request. Please do not make something false out of this. Feek free to check with the moderator.

  8. I wouldn’t expect a member of Labor’s Campaign Team to say anything different Adrienne. Stay the course Comrade! As I understand it Freya was a Nurse originally, so a very respectable Profession. (Not that I will be voting for Labor or the LNP, I really don’t trust the Born To Rule Party Machines). Good luck to all,. I am sure the electorate will make the right decision.

  9. Some claims made by the current member for Stretton in a flyer sent to residents I’d like clarified if anyone has the info.

    “Delivering an upgraded M1 / Gateway Motorway interchange”. Umm, I thought that was DTMR’s job, that was actually commenced under the PREVIOUS LABOR GOVERNMENT (as was the accompanying extension to the South East Busway, which is currently planned to extend to Springwood Busway Station and survey-ready to Underwood Road). “Adding an extra 2 lanes to the M1” (ie removing the T2 lanes). Again, I thought that was DTMR’s (ie SCOTT EMERSON as Transport Minister) achievement. Upgrading Wally Tate Park. Umm, I thought that was a BRISBANE CITY COUNCIL park. Surely Council can make direct representation to state government for funding requirements and not have to resort to engaging the assistance of a ‘minion’ local member? Delivering a “new purpose-built Qld Health building” at Brisbane Technology Park. Umm, MY information is that this building was actually planned a LONG TIME AGO, and even as it is, is actually built on land that is ALREADY OWNED by the state government, so it’s hardly an “achievement” to see it built there, now is it?

    I ask again, just WHAT has the Member for Stretton actually DELIVERED to the seat during this term?

  10. I find it very interesting reading these posts. So I feel the need to make a few comments on the seat of Stretton that I do indeed live in and have for the last 13 years.

    Firstly, We have four candidates. Let me outline the finer points of these candidates.

    Our current sitting MP, the LNP candidate is useless and is only seen when there is an opportunity for a photo. She makes false statements about what she has achieved. If you actually looked into her claims of what “she has accomplished” many would realise that she is riding on the coat-tails of the current Councillor and other state departments. Nothing that SHE has actually achieved. I describe her as having a foot in EVERY government portfolio but doing NOTHING for her own voting public. She will avoid meeting members of the public UNLESS it meets HER AGENDA! She is aggressive and argumentative with the public. Even telling one member of the public to “remove her blinkers” when the person challenged the current member. Is that how a candidate should treat / talk to her voters? I personally witnessed her verbally attacking the other candidates, making false accusations regarding electoral signs. She is running scared. About time she realise that she is NOT invincible.

    The ALP candidate. Has made NO attempt to visit the public. Rather relies on family members ringing houses at dinner time. Not good for people with young families. He is arrogant and has NOT been seen doing anything for the seat of Stretton since the last election. He has been missing in action and then suddenly reappears.

    The GREENS candidate. Who is that? Heard nothing from the person and would have no idea what the person is about. What does this person stand for in the election?

    The INDEPENDENT candidate. Has personally visited each house in the seat and made himself available at all hours for conversations with his voters. Very personable and genuinely concerned about the residents and the community. Fully involved in the community and works for the people.

    Secondly, a public debate. Why are three of the candidates ‘too afraid’ to commit to a public debate for the voters to make an informed decision? It would appear that the ONLY candidate willing to share their views and debate topics is the Independent Candidate. I for one WOULD LIKE a public debate.

    Thirdly, Voting 1. As an informed voter, I see no problem in voicing my dissatisfaction at the current government and sitting member, opposition or other candidate. The way I see it, by voting 1 I am making an informed decision on the person that will represent the seat the best. The person that will represent the PEOPLE and COMMUNITY. It will also send a message to the TWO main parties that people are dissatisfied.

    Fourthly, the candidates need to sell themselves. As a voter, I should NOT have to go searching for information on the candidates. If they want my vote, they NEED to approach me and sell themselves. If they can’t be bothered approaching their voters, then I can’t be bothered voting for them. Very simple!

    In conclusion, the candidates need to remember that they are WORKING FOR THE PEOPLE of THEIR CHOSEN electorate. We are NOT working for them. It is time to get rid of the two major parties and start giving the voters a real voice with other parties. Remember the PEOPLE HOLD THE POWER NOT THE POLITICIANS!

  11. Hi “Anne”, thank you for your comment.

    I run this website myself and commenters who are posting for the first time are moderated until I read your comments. Sometimes comments take up to a day to post, and it’s not very reasonable to expect a comment to appear within ninety minutes. You’re not entitled to that.

  12. Well, “Anne”, you seem to be panicking! You have a view on every candidate but clearly have not met them all! I know the Labor candidate well and know he would be a great representative of the area. He has qualifications in Law, is smart and quick on his feet and would be a great representative of the area. Similarly, the Independent candidate has lived in the area and worked hard over the years to get his profile up. No one could criticise his work ethic.

  13. Many people in Stretton that I speak to are very frustrated with the choices we have been given by the political parties. We are fed up with the spin and outright lies being fed to us by both LNP and Labor. Lets face it the Greens are a joke, just standing in every electorate to harvest political funding, they make no attempt to engage with the community. The LNP Member has done next to nothing in her 3 years in office and the Labor Candidate is controlled by his Sponsoring Union. By the way where is the Labor Candidate, whilst he stood last election in the intervening 3 years he disappeared, rather than serving the community during that period trying to increase his profile and giving us an opportunity to get to know him he was invisible. I am angry at our constantly increasing Electricity Prices, a path started by Beattie’s sell off of the retailers, and a flawed Solar Rebate scheme that is costing us non-solar users (and renters) at least $300 per year to subsidise those who could afford to install panels. We are a resource rich State and are exporting Coal & Gas worldwide and we are paying some of the highest energy charges world wide. How is this fair when we see the Ultra-rich raping our resources to benefit themselves and their overseas customers? If you work in the mining sector you are doing well, if you are aged and on a fixed income you are screwed. Our Country and State has gone to the pack whilst we pander to Big Business, Big Unions and Minority Pressure Groups, our Politicians enjoy the perks of high office and a minimum of $200,000 a year whilst our Aged, our Sick and Underprivileged go without. I say throw out the Major Party Duopoly and demand a fairer and more inclusive society.

  14. Queensland State Government debt is now $50 billion plus an additional $30 billion is held by the State Government Owned Corporations. That’s more than $17,000 for every man, women and child in Queensland.There hasn’t been a budget surplus in Queensland for 10 years under the Bligh ALP, (the last Bligh ALP government itself privatised $18 billion worth of assets). and now the Newman LNP governments, and this year’s projected surplus (guess) is a paltry $188 million.

    This blog is mostly inhabited by Party campaign workers masquerading as real humans so please let the voters of Stretton know how their respective candidates are going to fix this, seeing the Party Candidates are banned from speaking directly to the people.

  15. Sorry “John Swift” you are going to have to deal with a lowly campaign worker again. However, given the Independent candidate’s “just vote 1” instructions together with the “just vote 1” for the LNP, unfortunately, what you will end up with is the LNP member getting back in. If you haven’t taken into account every candidate and numbered them accordingly, this is what is likely to happen. When this occurs, just remember: “This is what you chose.” And don’t complain.

  16. I don’t understand how Mr Pegg can expect people in Stretton to take him seriously when he refuses to communicate with the electorate. Slim Dusty once said he would Love to have a Beer with Duncan, but how can we when he is invisible. Seems our Mr Pegg is well and truly on the Nose. By the way I voted today and numbered every square, Mrs Prima-donna from Loganlea was put last, the same place she has put our Electorate for the last 3 years that she has had her nose in the trough will all the other Orwellian Swine.

  17. “John Swift” Have you actually tried to communicate with him? Or are you being led by someone else’s rhetoric? I have known him for over 10 years and have always found him to be accessible. On the other hand, I am glad you used your vote to count. The feedback I am getting – and I trust it – is that the independent candidate is polling at lower than he did in 2012. If you want the LNP back in Stretton, by all means, vote for the Independent candidate. Because that will be the result.

  18. If you want to vote out Freya and want to vote Labor, put the Independent number 1 and Labor 2, this will save the Taxpayer money as every vote for a Party Candidate costs us $4.35 in electoral funding (and independent vote only costs us $1.45 per vote) this is why the Greens are running for the Guaranteed funding, with about 2.5 million voters this is a potential windfall of $11 million dollars given to Political Parties, the Greens are expecting about 10% of this so $1.1 million to them (and they don’t even have to win 1 seat) and around $4 million each for the ALP and NLP. Is this really fair on the struggling Pensioner, or self funded retiree paying excessive Electricity and Water costs, the Highest Vehicle Registration in the country etc. $11 million would give us an extra 110 nurses, or 110 teachers, but no the Political Parties once again have a very cosy deal between themselves to divide up our money.

  19. Adrienne, I have lived in this community for well over 45 years, I attend a lot of community and charity functions and have not seen Duncan Pegg at any of them, occasionally I see Freya jumping in front of cameras for the publicity shot but her reputation is akin to our failed Councillor Gail McPherson who also took our community for granted. Whilst I have voted Conservative for most of my life I cannot in all good conscience vote for Freya although I hope the NLP get another term with a competent Opposition (Cameron Dick will likely be leader of the ALP after the election). I hope David Forde gets up in Stretton as I have seen him working for his community for the past 6 years or so and is committed to many social justice issues (I certainly don’t agree with everything he stands for, but life would be a bore if everyone agreed) I am certain that David would continue the proud tradition of the committed Independent so ably demonstrated by Senators Nick Xenophon and Brian Harradine and Queenslanders Peter Wellington and Liz Cunningham.

  20. Adrienne, your comment underlines your lack of knowledge of the electorate (yes I acknowledge you were a former ALP candidate). I assure you, some people who voted LNP (and ALP) all their life have shifted this election. If you think that those people who voted LNP previously would vote for the ALP candidate you fail to understand the electorate, not least based on conversations I have had with those very people. People are smarter than you give them credit for about how to vote. Whatever the outcome, the ALP candidate was handed a golden opportunity to put forward his credentials to the electorate in a candidate’s public forum and he did not respond. Of course it may be to do with his previous strong support for privatisation and lack activity in the community. I argue that he has allowed the LNP candidate to go the polls unchallenged in the public domain. Its up to the ALP candidate to put forward his own case. People who are voting for me are doing so either because they do not want to vote for either main party candidate, or due to my service in the community. As for your ‘inside’ knowledge on polling – time will tell and democracy will take its course. Either way, I am certainly enjoying campaigning and have many years of politics left in me.

  21. No sure what you are worrying about Adrienne, Sportsbet has Pegg at $1.35 NLP at $3.00 and David Forde at $11.00, seems to me that Pegg is a Favourite at very short odds and doesn’t need any preferences to win.

  22. Forde4Stretton’s “Only Vote 1” strategy has aroused my curiosity. On a basic analysis, he has a snowball’s chance. Factor in his refusal to do a preference deal – Well, there’s no other metaphor. He earnestly believes he can win solely on primaries ??? Tell ‘im he’s dreaming. & before he comes back with a post about “free choice” and “not directing voters”, to use his words, people are smarter than he gives them credit for about how to vote, as John Swift has demonstrated.

    Interesting comment on taxpayer election funding, John Swift, thanks for that. It led me to check out the ECQ website. Your detail is a bit simplistic. The Electoral Act provides for payment of the lesser of (i) actual expenditure as verified by the Commission and (ii) $ per primary vote, provided primary vote is not < 6%. The actual expenditure provision means that there is no "windfall" that registered parties or independents can bank. It also means that your estimate of $1.1 million is inflated, given their material to date this election.

    Personally, I support taxpayer funding of campaigns. As originally enacted, it went hand-in-hand with a cap on expenditure to minimise "deep pocket" democracy. Unfortunately, one of the first initiatives of the Campbell government was to remove the expenditure cap.

  23. Can someone start commenting on some other seats? I’m interested in many of the seats this election and all that keeps updating in the feed is Stretton. Sorry.

  24. Rudd For PM, you do realise that every seat on this website has their own forum and this IS the Stretton forum, don’t you? How about you be proactive and BEGIN a discussion on another seat’s forum? Because all you will get here is comment on STRETTON. [Personal attack deleted]

  25. My simplistic comment is that $11 million dollars given to political parties is morally offensive when we have pensioners struggling to survive. I can understand your support for the funding Mark Mitchell being a member of the Labor Party. I am not a Party amember and still think that the state would be better off with 110 more nurses than fattening the bank accounts of the ALP and NLP. Why do parties get 3 times the public funding per vote than given to an independent? Because the parties made the rules thats why.

  26. Thats the thing its not really about Stretton its this argument your having about locals, not really a discussion

  27. “Peter Taylor”, I am assuming you are a grown up? I am entitled to my opinion, just as you are yours. Please try not to show your bias by sinking to abuse but, if you must do so, be more clever in your delivery.

  28. Mark, your argument that David Forde’s “no preference” strategy means he is solely reliant on primary votes to win the seat is contradicted by your further comment, repeating David Forde’s words, that “people are smarter than he gives them credit for about how to vote”. Forde is correct, in that voters KNOW they don’t have to follow the HTV cards of candidates and CAN apportion their voting preferences the way THEY desire.

  29. Mark, just for the record. Either just before the election was called or just after, the ALP campaign secretary stated that the ALP would be just voting 1 (as well as the leader AP stating no deals with anyone). When the ballot draw was made last week, my HTVs were printed straight away and with me that Friday, it was after that I found out that the ALP changed tactic to follow the union campaign – and then suddenly expect me to follow them?. My position has been clear based on what voters have been telling me, including people yesterday telling me they voted LNP all their life but would vote for me this time and questioned me about “are you doing any preference deal”. Those same people would vote for the LNP and increase the LNP primary if I agreed to some sort of preference swap. I am standing as an independent and it is up to the ALP candidate to put his case forward to the people. The voting public are less likely to warm to a candidate unless there is a massive swing, who has been absent from the electorate till of late. As I said previously, his refusal to enter a candidate’s debate (yet he can attend a forum this morning with federal MPs) has given the LNP candidate a free and unchallenged run to polling day. I think the ALP needs to reflect on its own campaign rather than looking to others. But as has been pointed out, I thought your ALP candidate was going to romp it in according to sportsbet, so why worry about me as I am just an independent who has a “snowballs chance” – to use your quote.

  30. Okay this thread has gotten extremely tedious, and at times descended to insults, so I’m going to close it for the time being. When I have time I will come back and may edit or delete some comments in this thread.

    Rudd for PM is right in his criticism, as has Observer, and they have been insulted themselves after asking that people use a bit more common sense.

  31. Democracy restored to the Stretton Thread. The big news in the campaign today is the allegation that some Unions are funnelling Bikie Gang cash via the Unions to the ALP campaign, is the Stretton ALP Campaign partially funded by Union Donations? Are any other Stretton Campaigns funded by Bikie cash? Is it an issue if Criminal Bikie Gangs are supporting Candidates?

  32. In the Courier Mail at least. I can understand the Criminal Bikies being upset with Newman, they have lost so much of their drug sales income recently. Labor will restore the balance.

  33. Any article in The Courier Mail automatically should be taken with a grain of salt. Worst newspaper in the country (The Daily Telegraph is a close second). Whatever happened to journalism?

Comments are closed.