Oatley – NSW 2015

LIB 3.8%

Incumbent MP
Mark Coure, since 2011.

Geography
Southern Sydney. Oatley covers most of the City of Hurstville and parts of Kogarah municipality. Suburbs include Connells Point, Lugarno, Mortdale, Peakhurst, Penshurst, Riverwood and Oatley.

Map of Oatley's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Oatley’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Oatley underwent changes to its borders with Kogarah and Lakemba. Oatley gained Connells Point from Kogarah and lost parts of Beverly Hills and Hurstville to Kogarah. Oatley gained Riverwood from Lakemba in exchange for parts of Narwee. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 0.5% to 3.8%.

History
The electoral district of Oatley first existed from 1927 to 1930, and again since the 2007 election. In between, the seat was mostly covered by the seat of Georges River, which existed from 1930 to 2007.

The original district of Oatley was won by the ALP’s Mark Gosling, who had held one of the seats in the multi-member district of St George since 1920. When Oatley was abolished in 1930, its territory was split between the new seats of Kogarah and Georges River. Gosling won Kogarah in 1930, but lost in 1932.

The district of Georges River originally covered Cronulla and those areas on the southern shore of the Georges River. It gradually contracted to the western part of the St George area. Georges River was a marginal seat, regularly switching sides.

The ALP lost Georges River in 1988 to Liberal candidate Terry Griffiths. Griffiths served as a minister in the Coalition state government, but was forced to resign from the party and the ministry in 1994 over a sexual harassment scandal.

The seat was won in 1995 by the Liberal Party’s Marie Ficarra. She lost in 1999 to the ALP, but later won a seat in the Legislative Council in 2007.

Kevin Greene won Georges River for the ALP in 1999. He moved to the new seat of Oatley in 2007, and served as a minister from 2007 to 2011, when he lost Oatley to Liberal candidate Mark Coure.

Candidates

Assessment
Oatley is a very marginal seat, and is likely to be won by Labor.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Mark Coure Liberal 19,587 44.1 +15.4 47.4
Kevin Greene Labor 18,715 42.1 -10.3 38.9
Anne Wagstaff Greens 3,970 8.9 +4.5 8.8
Steven Marcos Christian Democrats 2,146 4.8 +0.6 4.6
Others 0.2

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Mark Coure Liberal 20,821 50.5 +14.9 53.8
Kevin Greene Labor 20,381 49.5 -14.9 46.2
Polling places in Oatley at the 2011 NSW state election. North in blue, South-East in green, South-West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Oatley at the 2011 NSW state election. North in blue, South-East in green, South-West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Oatley have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.

There was wide variety in the two-party-preferred vote, ranging from 52.3% for the ALP in the north to 62.1% for the Liberal Party in the south-east.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 7.7% in the north and 7.8% in the south-east to 10% in the south-west.

Voter group LIB 2PP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
North 47.7 7.7 14,857 32.0
South-West 54.2 10.2 14,309 30.8
South-East 62.1 7.8 8,933 19.2
Other votes 56.3 9.5 8,401 18.1
Two-party-preferred votes in Oatley at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Oatley at the 2011 NSW state election.

14 COMMENTS

  1. Worth noting on federal figures this is actually a pretty safe Liberal electorate – it’s on 6.2% if you replicated the 2013 figures here, and 1. Kevin Greene was really popular in the electorate as a whole and 2. this district seems similar to the Georges River of the 90’s which was a pretty safe Coalition electorate. Therefore I think despite being marginal on paper the Liberals will hang on here.

  2. Kevin Greene’s personal vote is the wild card here. Unlike a lot of Labor MPs, he stayed and fought in 2011. He almost pulled off an unlikely win.

    The new boundaries are quite elegant. Though Labor was understandably aghast.

    Make no mistake though; this is a top tier ALP target. O’Bray Smith is running an energetic campaign.

  3. I’m with morgieb here – Oatley not be as vulnerable as the low margin suggests – this covers the better Liberal areas on the northern bank of the Georges River, and would have been Liberal held on federal figures in 2010, in addition to 2013.

    Not calling this one for either side yet.

  4. I’m working off a table over at Poll Bludger here, which you all should read.

    A whole bunch of seats in this part of Sydney are weaker for Labor federally than you’d expect comparing the last federal and state elections. It’s obvious to expect Labor to have done about 10% better in 2013 than 2011, considering they didn’t get smashed federally, but there’s a few seats where they actually did worse. On that measure, Labor’s worst three seats are Kogarah (-4.1%,) Oatley (-2.4%) and East Hills (-2.2%). Maroubra, Rockdale and Coogee are all bunched up at that end of the scale too.

  5. I’m actually tipping the Coalition to retain this seat. The banks of the Georges River are gentrifying and you will see seats like Oatley and East Hills continue to get safer for the Coalition over the next few years.

    Mark Coure has also been very active in the area and has been one of the better new MP’s for the Coalition.

  6. Kogarah, Oatley and East Hills mostly overlap with the federal electorates of Banks and Barton, where Labor’s local campaigning was weak in 2013. The high-profile local MP retired in Barton, and the incumbent MP didn’t campaign energetically in Banks – Daryl Melham was actually reported to have packed up his parliamentary office several week before the election.

    I also agree with Hawkeye_au regarding the gentrification, although I don’t know how much impact you’d expect over two and a half years.

  7. Having looked at polling numbers for the state and federal seats in this part of Sydney for recent elections, it does seem that the Labor vote is in gradual decline in this part of Sydney.

  8. Mark Coure has been one of the hardest working members of the Government backbench. Whilst I acknowledge that the ALP is the favourite in this Seat (41.60/$2.25), Mark’s hard work should ensure a retention.

  9. That redistribution was a godsend to the Coalition, I don’t see that there was simply any way they could have retained the seat without it. On the new boundaries I think Coure is in with a chance, he does work quite extensively in the electorate.

  10. I am hopeful of a Labor win…… O’Bray Smith is an excellent candidate and very hard working….Labor can expect a 10% swing back across NSW….. the unknown is how much of a personal vote Kevin Greene had

  11. I’m secptical of the local member factor. I’m tipping a swing much in line with the rest of the state – probably 7-10%, in any case a safe enough Labor pick up.

    $1.60 seems like good odds to me.

  12. Well if ever there was a local member incumbency factor coming into play, this is where it would be.

Comments are closed.