Ryan – Australia 2025

The 3CP result was much tighter in 2025 than in 2022. Either Labor or the Greens had a chance of winning and whoever came 2nd on the 3CP would ultimately get most of the preference flows from the 3rd placed party.

I think Elizabeth Watson-Brown and the Greens would fear:
1. An LNP to Labor primary vote swing if the Coalition’s leadership woes and Coalition’s stances on climate change drag on.

2. Greens voters becoming Labor voters as they age. I recall Kos Samaras saying that the Greens aren’t as good as Labor in retaining voters as they age. He cited Melbourne as an example.

3. Greens-friendly demographics shrinking e.g. renters, young professionals, students, due to rising rents and housing costs. Brisbane is now the second-most expensive capital city to buy a home. It’s even more expensive in inner-city and riverside suburbs.

@Votante couple of things:

– The Moggill and Fig Tree Pocket part of the electorate will keep the LNP in play as they’re not heavily populated but vote conservative in droves thanks to the higher rate of home ownership, seclusion from the hustle and bustle of the CBD etc. In fact all of the area west of Mt Coot-tha will help the LNP stay competitive.

– The Greens runs up their margins along the riverside suburbs in the inner west (Toowong, Auchenflower, Indooroopilly, St Lucia and Taringa) and these areas have a lot of professionals and younger people (UQ is in St Lucia). This mix usually lean Green moreso with Labor given that this area is by the riverside which is susceptible to flooding and would be way more climate conscious.

– The area I would watch is the Enoggera, Ashgrove, Ferny Grove area in the north. That’s an area that’s trending further left but is more centre-left overall. That’s where Labor gets first place on primaries but the Greens are catching up in terms of the primary vote. If the Greens can get ahead in this area Ryan will be safe Green, if not it will still be marginal Green as the LNP don’t do well here at all (or anywhere near the inner city, where the people live).

@Votante I had a feeling before the election that, if the Greens were gonna lose this seat, it wouldn’t have been to Labor, due to that high 3CP gap. I expected if the Greens had a bad night they’d lose Brisbane, but wasn’t expecting to lose Griffith (and certainly not Melbourne).

In the end, that high 3CP gap saved EWB here.

They lost Griffith because the lnp put labor in the 2cp against the greens. And it was a group effort in Brisbane. Melbourne was probably part due to bandts issues and the removal of brunswick for more favourable boundaries south of the yarra. I wouldnt rule out the greens making a return in either melbourne griffith or briabane either. I also wouldn’t consider Brisbane or Ryan lost to theLNP if they can ger their act togerher. It will probly depend on how the state fovt does as well.

I would say this seat is Demographically Teal and not Ecosocialist/Green Left like Wills etc. Ideally a teal should represent the seat. Unlike Cooper, Wills and Grayndler this seat has a lot of Turnbull Liberals and Turnbull actually got a swing here and Brisbane in 2016. I think EWB needs to understand that and present herself as a more independent Tealish MP.
Problem for EWB is that many moderate centrist voters in 2025 in the absence of a Teal actually went for Labor over Greens in seats like Griffith, Macnamara, Brisbane so the swing away from LIBs went to ALP not Greens. I think in a seat like this blocking legisaltion in the Senate and MCM is a real turn off.

For the Greens to hold here they need to stay in second place or be in first and need Labor to stay last with LNP either first or second place after the Greens. The Greens are in real danger if the Liberal vote collapses and they fail to increase their primary vote substantially.

@ Spacefish
EWB did not build a personal vote so that moderate Liberals and some Labor voters could actually vote for on a personal level.

@ Nimalan,
This term of parliament will be a make or break for her and from what I’m seeing she has been very visible so I get the feeling the Greens are sandbagging here.

Agree SpaceFish they maybe should sandbag here and be willing to let go of Griffith and certainly Moreton. Last time QLD greens wasted resources trying to win Moreton and did not sandbag their existing seats. I think the Greens did not expect the LNP vote to fall from 2022 levels.

The Greens need to have a more conservative (not sure what other word I can use) strategy of campaigning in seats. Pick a handful of absolutely winnable seats/seat they already hold (Richmond in NSW, Ryan in Qld, Wills, Fraser, and Melbourne in Victoria, for example) and leave the rest.

Trying to spread their resources out like they did eventually proved pointless, as some of the seats they targeted Labor were already in striking range to win/already held comfortably. Then they were forced to backtrack at the last minute to try and sandbag the seats they held.

If the Greens are to target anywhere in NSW, for example, it is Richmond or nothing.

@ CJ
Fraser depends on the Liberal preferences there is a big gap between them on primaries

I agree with Nimalan that it is teal-ish and environmentally conscious given its proximity to bush land and the Brisbane River. It is not an economically left-wing Greens area like say, Grayndler or Wills where there are lots of rusted-on Greens or socialist party voters.

The closeness of the 2025 result is due to the drop in LNP primary votes and the increase in Labor votes. This means the gap between first and third shrank.

There is potential for teal-ish Greens voters to switch to Labor or LNP as they don’t align much on economic issues. I also wonder if there are disaffected LNP voters who held their noses to vote LNP in 2025 but would switch in 2028. After all, this was a traditional LNP heartland seat until 2022.

@Tommo9, Ryan is under-quota and could expand at the redistribution. Labor’s best booths were near northern edge in Ferny Grove, Keperra etc, and even in The Gap. Riverside suburbs like Toowong and Indooroopilly have lots of new apartments and attract students and young professionals and first home buyers.

It’ll expand regardless of if Queensland gains its 31st seat.

I plan on bringing Ryan’s border down to the Brisbane River and fix up the current border with Blair. Ryan can then go into Milton and Paddington to pick up whatever’s left to gain. Ashgrove will probably be put in Ryan as well.

im inclined to agree with that.

“… they maybe should sandbag here and be willing to let go of Griffith and certainly Moreton. Last time QLD greens wasted resources trying to win Moreton and did not sandbag their existing seats.”
Moreton enrolled 109,260, voted 96,063 in May 2025. Moreton needs new voters, choices include further into the Oxley/Rankin Labor badlands or into the Griffith PA Hospital/Greenslopes Hospital Greenlands.
FWIW, Greens doorknockers were out in inner Moreton last week, 2 liberal d/kers spotted today. State and Local Council elections can’t be held before 2028, so perhaps something is up Federally?

Julie Ann-Campbell just started her term here. Would think it’s unlikely for her to resign this soon.

All three of Queensland’s next elections are in 2028. Fun timing, huh? It’ll also be the last State election before the Olympics.

I think the Greens should write off Moreton and Brisbane in 2028. In 2025, they came third in both seats at a time when the LNP hit rock bottom.

Brisbane, Moreton, Perth, Sturt are writeoffs. Macnamara and Newcastle can be somewhat of a pet project, put something in them but don’t expect good news. Sarah Witty could prove to be formidable in Melbourne, same with Renee Coffey in Griffith.

The Greens campaign needs to be hyperfocused to three seats, in my opinion; Richmond, Ryan, and Wills.

I think the greens will lose Ryan in 2028 don’t know to who. The greens were basically a protest vote in Brisbane Ryan and Griffith. The greens problay aren’t out of contention for Griffith Brisbane or Melbourne. Richmond is probably at least 2 elections off now that Labor have recovered. Macnamara Wills and Fraser is where they should focus their effforts.

Macnamara will be held by Labor for the foreseeable future, unless the seat can remove the parts around Caulfield.

I still think Ryan should be held by the Greens as long as EWB is the candidate. If she retires/goes Teal, the Greens have very little hope.

Richmond is one Justine Elliot retirement away from flipping to the Greens. Given she’ll have been in Parliament for 24 years by the time of the next election, speculation must surely build about when she’ll hang up the boots.

The Greens vote here is soft and includes many former Liberals. The Ferny Grove/Keppera area is middle class so more like a LIB/ALP battleground so it is more like the Carnegie/Murrumbeena area in the old Higgins.
A few other points
1. I support putting the parts of Blair which is BCC into Ryan.
2. The suburbs along the rail line are densifying but this is probably a soft centrist vote as it young professionals.

id say Justine Elliot will be around until it looks as though Labor are gonna get voted out which wont be happening in 2028 now. even then a greens win will not be guaranteed as they will need to push labor out of the 2cp. nationals will be dead before they preference the greens in a labor v green contest which is probal gonna happen once parliament expands. If macanamara removes caufield it will be similarly a labor v greens contest and im pretty sure the liberals have learned their lesson in melbourne about preferencing the greens. caufield is probably one of the few things keeping it labor.

keeping labor from losing *

Michael Berkman would probably be the next greens candidate once EWB decides to step down

Could a seat swap be on the cards? EWB to Maiwar, Berkman to Ryan?

The key suggestions for redistribution on this page are:
1. Extending it to the SW boundary of BCC.
2. Expanding NE to include Ashgrove, Paddington and Milton.

Both would make this seat less Green electorally.

Votante thats effectively whats gonna happen as those are the only real options. although if it gets a 31st seat it would probably cross into northen ipswich given the surplus voters there

I’ve had in mind a rather radical redrawing of Ryan where it jumps both the Centenary and Walter Taylor bridges to cover the Centenary Suburbs (currently in Oxley) and Oxley Road suburbs (currently in Moreton). It makes sense from a community of interest perspective. It’s preferable to Ryan expanding into Karalee, and any further expansion into Ipswich I’d say is unacceptable. Guess it depends how the numbers work out.

if you go into ipswich you can ue the bremer river along with the warrego and brisbane valley highways as natural boundaries

Greens are a Party of affluence, Richmond being one of the poorest seats in Australia rules it out.
MCM won Griffith because it was the easiest way for Labor factions to depose Terri Butler, imo. Moreton is winnable in ’28, they just need the right candidate.

Gympie have you seen the houses in Byron Bay?

Gympie, I would argue that the Greens still have a base of support amongst younger voters who are not that affluent – considering their increased support in more working class, migrant/CALD heavy areas such as Maribyrnong in Melbourne. The Greens appear to have gone backwards in the more affluent, teal friendly suburbs as their campaign pushing more activist heavy matters such as Palestine and climate protests appears to have alienated the more professional type of voter.

Moreton isn’t winnable for the Greens. They came 3rd in 2025. Moreton is very under-quota. It will have to expand at the next redistribution and it’s unlikely to expand northward.

@John, you make a good point about protest votes helping the Greens win 3 seats in 2022. Ryan was a traditionally Liberal seat. It was hit quite hard by flooding in 2022. People of Ryan may align with the Greens on the environment and climate change but probably don’t on economics or even foreign affairs.

In Hindsight, i think if the Australian Democrats were around they will appeal to Ryan more than the Greens/Labor would. They are more willing to comprimise. The Democrats will not appeal in Wills, Cooper etc

@Gympie Richmond is a very hippie, left libertarian seat. It’s pro personal choice (Byron Bay responded very, very negatively to COVID vaccines and masks), pro cannabis legalisation, and its surrounded by national parks. It also has an environmental streak (Solar train), and Justine Elliot quit the Gillard frontbench due to the issue of fracking in that seat.

Ryan is a more Tealish seat, while Wills is the most left wing seat in the country. All three seats are the Greens’ best hopes of winning/holding a House seat in each state.

*Each Eastern state.

I tend to think that the current Greens support is dropping fairly rapidly in terms of age and influence. Their current policy targets and activism appeal to the <40 crowd rather than the affluent suburban eco centric crowd of yore. If they are going to pick up seats in the House it will be in economically stressed areas with a lot of CALD and young people.

About Richmond, Byron Shire has the most expensive housing market outside the capital cities. However, median incomes aren’t high. There are asset-rich homeowners as well as remote workers and investors but the typical person isn’t wealthy.