Farrer – Australia 2025

Any reason the greens do so well in Albury, especially compared to the rest of the seat.

@ North East Younger Demographic due to University in Albury

@North East – this was stated on the Farrer 2022 thread, but in short, a lot of regional cities like Albury have undergone their own gentrification and densification in recent years. There’s a lot of young, progressive voters in the CBDs of some regional cities like Toowoomba, Wagga Wagga, Armidale and Albury have decent Green votes in the inner-city booths there. Furthermore, there is a Charles Sturt University campus in Albury, which would likely have a lot of students staying in inner Albury as presumably house and apartment prices would be cheaper. I suggest the Farrer 2022 thread would be a lot more detailed though.

Another example (which I’ve mentioned) is Armidale, where some of the polling-day booths vote Labor on the 2PP and some of them actually voted Yes in the Voice referendum (Armidale, Armidale South, Madgwick). That’s thanks to the UNE campus located near the inner city which has likely brought younger and more progressive voters into the inner city.

There was also a bit of a novelty factor to the Greens candidate in 2022. He was a local 18 year old Albury High School student.

I’m astounded at how big this electorate is, even though I’m aware of the need for it to be somewhere near quota. But even though I believe that Miss Ley has her pilot’s licence, I wonder why this is separate from Parkes.

Broken Hill (the only city of any size in the far west) is actually about 100kms closer to Albury than it is to Moree. And given that
both electorates are huge, would it not make sense for an MP to be based in Broken Hill and work from there?

Doing so might allow some of the Riverina towns to have their own electorate (maybe including Albury or Wagga), or just stretching from Moama up to West Wyalong or thereabouts.

I appreciate that there are communities of interest questions, but I am not sure (as it stands) that Broken Hill and either Moree or Albury have all that much in common.

There simply is not enough quota to make that happen.

Sussan Ley is now acting leader of the opposition and a frequently-discussed candidate to become the new leader of the Liberal Party. If she were to win and lead the Coalition to the 2028 election, she would be the oldest opposition leader (67) since Arthur Calwell. I wonder if this alone will sink her leadership ambitions. She is only two years older than Albanese, but he has already been party leader for six years and PM for three. In the era of octogenarian presidents this may not be an issue.

Sussan Ley is a serious lightweight – it is constant surprise that she has got as far and lasted as long as she has. She is not leadership material – she makes Angus Taylor look like a paragon of policy formulation. In an article a short time back Michell Grattan described her as scatty. Angus Taylor is not an option either and has to be held to account for a lot of policy and political failures. Andrew Hastie would be fresh face and new start or possibly Dan Tehan for the short term while the ship gets righted – as in stabilised not moved to the.

https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-will-there-be-leadership-changes-on-both-sides-of-politics-next-parliamentary-term-254203

Sussan Ley will still win this, but now the AEC is doing the Ley vs Millthorpe (Independent) 2CP throw, it’s going to be closer than lots of people expected.

*Milthorpe

You would assume most Greens and Labor preferences will break Milthorpe’s way, so Milthorpe should be pushing a 60-40 win in most of the Albury booths, but it’s the rest of Farrer (and postals) that will get Ley over the line with plenty to spare. A lot closer than last time though.

First Albury Booth is in for 2CP (Albury West), Milthorpe 62.5% to Ley 37.5%. That will likely be the best one for Milthorpe though, but shows how unpopular Sussan Ley is in Albury itself.

Farrer had an independent make the 2CP here in 2019 (Kevin Mack, incumbent mayor of Albury), but Milthorpe is much more in the McGowan/Haines image and appeared to me to have gotten more traction. Gotta mention that rather than corflutes, her supporters more often put up orange boards in the shape of an emu, almost like a mascot- kinda effective, in that it makes people ask what the emus are about, and it’s not just another political corflute.

Ley had a primary vote swing against her of 9%, bringing her to 43%, which is the first time she’s ever been below 50% since she first won vs the Nats. But that 9% all seems to have gone to the minor right. Contrary to what I thought above, Milthorpe performed pretty much exactly the same as Mack on primary, and the Labor+Green votes are almost identical to 2019 as well.

But the 2CP must end up being better for Milthorpe based on what @Witness is saying, because no booths in Albury came anywhere close to 62% for the independent in 2019 (West Albury was 56% Ley)- minor right not reliably preferencing Libs again I guess.

Congratulations to Sussan Ley, the first female leader of the Liberal Party, and the first female opposition leader in Australia’s history. She has a thankless task ahead of her.

Sussan Ley is the opposition leader which I am personally surprised but it seems the Liberals might have listened to the results of the most recent election.

Congratulations to Sussan Ley on becoming the first woman to lead the federal Liberal Party and the first female Opposition Leader (note that Julia Gillard was never Opposition Leader).

@spacefish it was obvious she would win given the other guy is half the reason the libs lost and was responsible for the loss of so many mps through facitional warfare and a few of the mps included in the vote had an axe to grind against him. namely Hollie Hughes who got demoted the unwinnalbe 4th spot because of him. though she still gets a vote atm because shes still in parllament until 1st July she wont be the leader come 2028 election. im hoping for a Andrew Hastie/Tim Wilson combo

Was Price jumping ship seen as a ploy by Taylor to get an extra vote?

Why do people think Angus Taylor is the reason they lost when it’s really on Peter Dutton?

@Nether Portal – did Peter stop Angus doing any economic policy development for 3 years?

@np because taylor was undermining him through faction bs behind th scenes. as shadow tresurer he failed in his job and is partly to blame

Whatever do you mean Bazza about lack of economics policy?

Today Angus stated that as shadow treasurer:

“I’m proud that we took to the election strong and practical plans to beat inflation sustainably; repair our housing and energy markets; revive growth by backing small business and investment; deliver targeted, timely tax relief; and restore the budget to protect our nation.”

@LNP Insider – not sure that his words above match anything he did during the campaign. For example his budget was for higher deficits and no income tax cuts

Don’t forget his policy to make long lunches tax-free. A real vote-winner, that one.

@Real Talk
Voters don’t have long memories. Keating stopped write offs for entertainment purposes, which flattened casual employent in the restaurant industry. Slogan was “Keating stops you eating”. He still won that election despite red hot anger from small businesses.
Just my opinion, this was a 1993 style election, Labor were uninspiring, but the Liberal Party didn’t much want to win.
2015 seems a long way in the past, Turnbull beat Abbott 55/44, todays vote was 27/24, and a couple of Senators won’t be back on July 1.
So, they’ve lost half their Parliamentary representation in 10 years.

@gympie that about sums its up. but i dont see Sussan Ley as Prime Ministerial material. she will be leader for about a year at most. Andrew Hastie is probably the coalitions best bet for a resurgance. not to mention hes from WA and thats where the coalition need to regain ground. im hoping for a Andrew Hastie/Tim Wilson team up.

@john , do you want Coopers Beer to sponsor that, a la the Bible Society Hastie-Wilson debate on the Same Sex Marriage postal survey?
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/keeping-it-light-teaser/video/7371a2cd007f2e681bb86aea462b58c1

The Coalition has split as the Nats have walked away

but it says they want to get a new agreement by the next election.
how will this effect the seats in qld and the NT?

@ John
It will not affect the merged parties at a state/territory level. The QLD MPs are already desginated Liberal or National. For example Philip Thompson will remain a Lib while Michelle Landry will be a Nat and leave the coalition

Tim Wilson??

@mick what does that have to do with anything?

What are the odds we see a Nationals candidate here in 2028?

If the Coalition is not renewed by then there will be was held by Former Nat leader Tim Fischer before Susan Ley. However, i think Susan Ley’s personal vote means she should prevail but when she retires Nat may pick up with a good candidate

Agree Nimalan, it might be like the seat of Nicholls (formerly Murray). A traditional Nationals seat that was held by Liberal MP Sharman Stone, the Nationals recovered it in 2016 by running a high-profile candidate, former state MLC Damian Drum.

@ Yoh An
Nicholls/Murray is an excellent example as it is classic rural conservative seat. In such cases, it often depends on candidate quality when it is an open seat. Indi could go to both Nats or Libs when Helen Haines retires (assuming no successor in place). At a state level Indi overlaps with both National and Liberal held seats.

My prediction is the Coalition will reunite within the next few months or perhaps even weeks given it’s impossible for either party to form a government or a credible opposition in their own right.

I predict another Liberal leadership challenge within 6 months of the new parliament with the antagonist running on a platform of uniting the parties again

My prediction is that the next non-ALP prime minister is not yet in parliament. Pity we’d have to wait until 2040 to find out.

It seems no one is daring to suggest the possibility of:
– a Liberal minority government with the support but not the partnership of the Nationals,
– a grand coalition between the Labor and Liberal parties.

Both may seem unthinkable in Australian politics but such arrangements would hardly be unprecedented by global standards. Maybe such arrangements seem unthinkable because of the immaturity and tribalism of our political culture. But they will become less unthinkable if the two-party system continues to decline.

@ Nicholas
I think the former is possibility but i think the latter is not possible unless more fringe parties like ONP win lower house seats. If ONP holds balance of power Grand Coalition is possible like what happens in Germany.

Pauline Hanson bizarrely suggest to One Nation and National to join in a new Coalition a few days ago
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/pauline-hanson-invites-nationals-to-form-coalition-with-one-nation-amid-negotiations-over-new-agreement-with-liberal-party/news-story/6b6720e32214cf6516f250147cd4ac1b

As discussed before on this site it would take a lot for One Nation or any right-wing minor party to become big in a federal or state legislature in Australia, especially in single-member seats.

In other countries there was a surge in support for right-wing parties for specific reasons that don’t apply in Australia. Some of these have entire jurisdictions where a plurality (but not always a majority) vote for these parties (though this doesn’t mean they entirely align with all their values, e.g most Americans in all states, including most Republican voters, are now pro-same-sex marriage).

There’s an article in The Australian indicating that it wasn’t just the lack of guarantee of the four policies (which many expected said policies would end up being retained anyway after the post-election review, even if tweaked as opposed to being junked) but more particularly that the Nationals wanted the right to a free vote in defiance of shadow cabinet solidarity on contentious issues – in particular, the matter of net zero where many Nationals oppose it on principle despite it being signed onto reluctantly by then deputy Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce (who has opposed it since the 2022 loss). Additionally, some party sources are saying that by the time the Coalition is brought back together, neither Littleproud nor Ley will be leaders of their respective parties.

Anyway, as for the next Liberal PM…I still think Andrew Hastie could actually be that Liberal, though I was very clearly wrong on thinking he would stand as the next opposition leader this early on. Sure, he’s conservative and clearly not small l liberal, but I think he’s not nearly as culture war hardened as some populist right individuals think and want him to be – and is much more just a traditional conservative, and less in the same mould as Jacinta Price. Obviously a hawk on defence and foreign policy, but I think he’s also pragmatic enough to not get bogged down nearly as much in culture war issues.

My dream for how Australian politics plays out in the near future is that the National Right faction of the Liberal Party joins the National Party – thus Australia would have a liberal party and a conservative party, rather than a confused party.

@ Nicholas
What about a demeger at a state level (QLD) so seperate Liberal and National parties can be established?
I would like the Nats to be established in South Australia and would prefer Barker and Alex Antic to be in the Nats. I think Herbert should be a Nats seat and Philip Thompson can join the Nats.
Some peri-urban seats such as Wright IMHO should be a Nats seat

To give examples from France and Germany:

* In the second round of the 2022 French presidential election (won by Emmanuel Macron), Marine Le Pen of the National Rally won three regions: Corsica, Hautes de France and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA). All of these regions have high unemployment rates, with the unemployment rate in Corsica (Le Pen’s strongest region) is around 8-9%.
* At the 2024 French legislative election, the National Rally vote was strongest in eastern France.
* At the 2025 German federal election, Alternative for Germany won the most seats in five states: Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia. These states were all part of East Germany before German reunification and still have problems from when they were communist occupied (much like many other former Eastern Bloc countries besides the Czech Republic and some parts of former Yugoslavia).

@Nicholas my vision would be a unified party without any right-wing populists, they can move to One Nation and never get elected to the lower house since even rural electorates will choose the Liberal/National Party.

Even Groom and O’Connor would be better of as Nats seat