11:20 – I don’t think we’ll get any more voting data tonight. I’ve done a quick video summing up the results on Instagram. That’s it for tonight.
10:13 – Kiama pre-poll and postal two-candidate-preferred has reported. Labor is on 60% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, a swing of 10.7%. The only primary votes yet to report 2CP figures is the Bomaderry election day booth. I’m not sure what has happened there, but this might be the last data we’ll get tonight.
10:00 – Pre-poll 2CP has reported for Albion Park and Bomaderry. Interestingly we are still waiting for the election day 2CP from Bomaderry, long after all similar votes reported.
Labor’s 2CP is now on 60.6%, but I expect that to drop slightly. The rate of preference flows is now eerily rounded: almost exactly five eighths exhausted, one quarter went to Labor, and one eighth went to the Liberals.
9:55 – We are still waiting for those additional 2CP votes, but in the meantime I’ve produced a map, showing the primary percent for the four leading candidates, the swings for Labor, Liberal and Greens (no swing map for Dezarnaulds, since she hasn’t run before), and a map showing the combined swing for Liberal and Ward, which compares the 2025 Liberal vote to the 2023 Liberal and Ward combined vote.
The Labor primary unsurprisingly peaks in the north and is lowest in the south. Labor did not win a majority of the primary vote in any booth, with their highest vote around 46-47% in the Minnamurra area. The Labor swing was very muted, with some negative primary vote swings around Nowra and swings against of 6-7% in two of the Albion Park area booths. Labor meanwhile had a big primary vote swing in Berry and Shoalhaven Heads.
The Liberal vote peaked in the low 30s at the southern end of the seat, but failed to clear 30% in most of the Nowra-area booths. In contrast, the Liberal vote in that area was over 50% in 2019. The Liberal primary vote significantly increased in the absence of Gareth Ward. The smallest increases were around Albion Park.
The combined Liberal/Ward swing is much more dismal. Even compared to 2023, when Ward had already been accused of the offences he has since been convicted over, most booths have seen over 20% of the vote less going to Liberal-ish candidates. This swing was worst in Kangaroo Valley and Jamberoo, where there was a drop of over 30%. Interestingly the Labor swing in those areas was 0% and 4% respectively – most of that vote went to other candidates.
Dezarnaulds did best in the middle of the seat, with 16% in Berry and in the mid-teens in a Kiama booth and both Gerringong booths. Her vote was actually best at 21% in Jamberoo. In contrast, her vote failed to do better than 8% in any of the booths around Albion Park.
The Greens vote peaked at 12-13% in the Gerringong and Kiama areas.
9:21 – Labor did gain substantial primary vote swings on the pre-poll in Kiama and Bomaderry, of about 5-7%, and that has pushed up their swing. They are now on a swing of about 3% on primary votes.
9:15 – The primary votes have now been reported from Kiama and Bomaderry, and we are not expecting any more primary votes tonight. Labor is on 37.5%, the Liberal Party is on 26.2%, and Kate Dezarnaulds is on 10.7%. We are now waiting for 2CP votes from Bomaderry, the three main pre-poll centres and the first postal vote batch.
8:56 – The pre-poll booth from Albion Park has reported primary votes. Labor has gained a 0.6% swing.
8:55 – This map shows the 2CP percentage and the 2CP swing in Kiama. For swing, I have compared the Liberal 2PP this year to the 2CP for Gareth Ward in 2023. It is missing Bomaderry, which is yet to report 2CP figures.
Labor largely polled 60% or above across the Kiama and Shellharbour council areas, except for the southernmost Gerroa booth, where they polled 57%. The ALP generally polled in the low 50s across the northern end of the Shoalhaven, but polled an amazing 70% in Kangaroo Valley. The Liberals won the two small southernmost booths in Falls Creek and Nowra Hill.
In terms of swing, Labor tended to get swings in the double digits, but gained noticeably less ground in the Nowra area.
8:30 – 2CP has been reported from Berry (good donuts) and Illaroo Road. Labor won 51.8% and 53.2% respectively in those two booths. We’re waiting for Bomaderry, and Centenary Hall 2CP, and we have no pre-poll votes yet.
8:27 – Albion Park High has reported the preference count. Labor is on 70.8%, and the projected final 2CP is climbing closer to 60%. We have also had about 2400 postal votes reporting as primary votes. This is the first of three progressive postal counts, so there will be more to come.
8:17 – A key part of this story is optional preferential voting. Voters aren’t required to number every box, and exhaustion rates are very high. On these numbers, if we were using compulsory preferential voting, there would be some speculation about whether Dezarnaulds could overtake the Liberal candidate and be competitive for the win. But it can’t be done under OPV.
8:13 – We’re now up to 17 2CP booths. We’re just missing Albion Park High, Berry, Centenary Hall, Illaroo Road, and we don’t have any results yet from Bomaderry.
8:09 – Of the fifteen booths where 2CP has been reported, the Liberals have won just two – Nowra Hill and Falls Creek, both at the southern edge of the electorate. But there are three booths where exhaust has outpolled the Liberal.
8:04 – The pace has slowed down, with 21/22 ordinary booths reporting primary votes, and twelve booths reporting 2CP votes.
8:02 – In the eleven booths where 2CP figures have reported, the flow of preferences from non-major candidates is:
- Exhaust – 61.4%
- Labor – 27.8%
- Liberal – 10.8%
7:56 – There are 22 ordinary election day booths and twenty of them have reported primary votes. We’re only missing Bomaderry Public and Centenary Hall in Albion Park. Not much has changed.
7:53 – Labor has had a few big 2CP swings. In addition to Werri Beach, they’re up 23% in Kangaroo Valley. This means they are now projected to reach 59%.
7:48 – Labor has gained a 15.6% 2CP swing at Werri Beach Hall, with 61.5%. Good fish and chips near there.
7:45 – Labor has won the Kiama by-election. While their primary vote is likely to remain steady, their opponents’ votes are much more scattered, with very high rates of exhaustion, and Labor will have a two-party-preferred vote in the mid-50s.
7:43 – With seventeen booths reporting primary votes, the leading candidates are:
- McInerney (ALP) – 35.5% (projected to be 34.5%)
- Copley (LIB) – 24.1% (25.2%)
- Dezarnaulds (IND) – 12.2%
- Gray (GRN) – 9.8% (7.4%)
- Nelson (SFF) – 6.0%
- Fuggle (LGC) – 5.5%
7:39 – The 2CP swing in Minnamurra and Albion Park Rail was a bit smaller than in Kiama and Gerroa, and now my model has Labor winning 55.8% after preferences. Still, it’s very hard to see them losing.
We now have 15 booths reporting primary votes. At this point, for the four booths reporting 2CP figures, 63.2% of preferences are exhausting. It’s very hard to catch up with such a high exhaust rate. But Labor is getting 26% of those preferences, and the Liberal Party is getting 10%.
7:31 – We now have a second 2PP booth, along with 10 primary vote booths. There was a 10% swing to Labor in Kiama High (comparing 2CP against Ward in 2023). More than half of all preferences are exhausting from those two booths.
7:24 – The first 2PP figures are from Gerroa, a town I know very well. Labor polled 56.6% there, which is 8% better than they did in 2023 against Gareth Ward on the 2CP.
7:21 – A number of other booths have come in and it’s looking very similar.
7:17 – We have results in Falls Creek and Kangaroo Valley, and the Labor vote is now just above the 2023 primary vote. But the Liberals are on just 24%, projected to grow to 26%. Kate Dezarnaulds is on 12.5%, and the Greens are on 10%.
7:11 – The Greens vote so far is down by 4.7%. While they’re currently on 9.3%, that includes some good booths in Kiama and Gerroa, and my model projects that will drop to 6.4%.
7:08 – While the Liberal vote is up 15%, the Ward vote so far is down 32.7%, so more than half of his vote is going to someone else.
7:07 – Labor is on 42.6% and the Liberal Party is on 25.6%. My projection expects that gap to shrink to 37-27. Dezarnaulds is now ahead of the Greens.
7:05 – Another Labor swing of 4.3% in Gerroa and 2.1% in Minnamurra.
6:58 – The first booth to report is Kiama High. Labor is on 39%, the Liberal Party is on 21%, and the Greens on 13%. Kate Dezarnaulds is on 11.7%. That is a 4.3% swing to Labor, but more importantly shows that the non-Labor vote is scattered. Labor looking good so far.
6:54 – No results yet. I’ve got a spreadsheet I’ll be using to track the results tonight which I’ve shared with donors on my Discord – if you’re eligible but you’re not there, maybe now is a good time to join?
6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Kiama by-election. This state seat is on the south coast of New South Wales, and was vacated by Gareth Ward shortly before he was expected to be expelled from the Legislative Assembly after his conviction and expected sentencing.
Results should start to come in before 7pm tonight. I’ll be live-blogging here. In the meantime, you can read my guide to the by-election here.
Kiama High has reported, Labor on about 39% with the Liberals on 21%. Kate Dezarnaulds and Greens sitting in the low teens.
First results in. Kiama High. Mcinerney with 39 percent primary. Not sure how that compares to last election. However,Libs on 20 percent. If this repeats, unless there’s an overwhelming flow to Liberals then surely it’s a Labor win
Liberal PV at the moment across 3 booths (Kiama High, Minnamurra Public, Gerroa NC) is around 26%, Labor’s is 43%.
I’d say Labor should comfortably win.
SFF polling 10% at Nowra Public! Liberals do seem to be doing good here, especially as this is home turf for Serena Copley.
Legalise Cannabis doing well at Albion Park Rail and Nowra…Katelin in front on primaries in every booth bar one at the moment. I can only see a Labor win here.
2PP at Gerroa was close to 57% for Labor. Very similar to federal election results.
Looks like Labor will win, but I won’t be paying too much attention as there’s footy and soccer on and it’s only a state by-election.
Thanks Ben, great commentary.
Very large swing against Labor in the ttp which is interesting.
The 2pp appears to be 60/40 labors way
2PP swing basically meaningless given the last election was Labor v Ward and a Liberal who didnt campaign.
The 2pp where Mr Ward won was not reliable as a large number of votes exhausted.
Falls Creek and Nowra Hill are the only Liberal booths at the moment. Albion Park has reverted to Labor despite being Liberal as recently as 2019 (not recent anymore but still).
It probably would be closer if not for the high exhaustion rate
This seems to complete a clean sweep for Labor from Kiama to Monaro. I would suggest the 2011 coalition victors in the longer term in Kiama and Monaro on a longer term basis harmed the the coalition
With a 11% gap and very high exhaustion rate it would be impossible to make up the gap. Thus opv became a defacto fpp system.
I get left vote in Kiama including half the teal vote as approx 63%
Right vote is 37%
Defacto first past the post
My post about the “sweep” should
Delete the first “in the longer term”
Now obviously the libs were always going to lose this seat but will this result motivate anyone in the party to think about a leadership spill? This was a liberal seat only 6 years ago and they seem to only just be getting over 1/4 of the vote now.
Bagot that vote was mainly due to Gareth wards popularity as an mp. It’s safe to say that’s now gone
I expected Labor to win. This was a traditional Labor seat before 2011. The 2011 Coalition landslide plus Gareth Ward’s personal vote kept this seat off Labor for over 14 years.
It looks like the massive number of independents and minor parties split the votes as there’s a lot of exhausted votes. Labor is getting way more preferences than the Liberals are.
I mentioned on the main by-election page that a bad result would be the final straw for Mark Speakman. There was a cloud over him for some time. Now we have most of the results, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a leadership spill against him.
Keep Speakman he is for a liberal
While Labor won under fpv Kate decided would probably have gotten up on fpv due to lcp and grn preferences pusgphing her over the libs
@Votante: Speakman has no obvious leadership challenger and no one is confident they will have the numbers to challenge him.
Spellman is doing a decent enough job so why rock the boat
Why would Speakman be facing a spill? And who would be the new leader?
Given that by election always attract a field and general elections don’t Dezarnaulds might do well to recontests in 2027
I cannot imagine that Speakman’s leadership is at any real risk following the Kiama by-election. Given the circumstances surrounding the vacancy and the fact that it is not a blue-ribbon seat, it would be hard to sell it as a personal defeat for him. Speakman is among the least offensive opposition Liberal leaders in the country, although his polling has been trending down lately. The last Resolve poll had it on 57-43 ALP, but that seems like a bit of an outlier. It is more that Chris Minns has not done anything to screw the pooch as of yet. As for 2027, Kate Dez might give it another shot, but I am not sure she will come up with a Golden Ticket. Unless the ballot is extremely short and lacks preferences, she is limited geographically and politically.
The ballot will be alot shorter and if she can get liberal preferences she would be a good chance it’s hard to win with a 37% primary when your up against the whole field
Speakman is easily the best Liberal opposition leader in the country, but that’s more a comment on the Vic, SA, WA and Canberra Liberals.
I remember when Chris Minns was also someone you wouldn’t recognize on the street, but that clearly changed .
The NSW Liberals path to general election victory is for Greens and Teals to second guess how much they really want to put a preference next to Labor. A moderate Liberal leader as a foil to a relatively conservative Labor leader is the way to do that. But it will take time and recognition.
The by-election was about 2 people. Gareth Ward & Katelin McInerney. Not Speakman or Minns. Firstly the electorate was seriously angry/disappointed with Ward, sitting with a baseball bat, & the beneficiary was never going to be a Liberal candidate. He outright lied to them saying that he would prove his “innocent” & when the time came never even got into the witness box to testify. His supporters are lying low regarded as laughing stock or sadly, worse & darker. McInerney campaigned hard against him in 2023 which the electorate appreciated more as each day of the scandal progressed, & was the only highly recognised candidate.
The Liberals would be idiots to replace a talented politician like Speakman & bring on another by-election. Speakman could go back to the bar tomorrow, become richer, more relaxed & probably would be happier.
Contrary to some comments above the by-election was a disaster for Dezarnauld. She campaigned very hard & expensively; had a big presence on every booth & pre-poll (often bigger than the Liberals) & yet was outpolled 2 to 1 by Fuggle of the Cannabis Party in the Albion Park booths (where he campaigned) & 2 and a half to one by the Liberals. She did finish ahead of the Greens (only thanks to the cannabis vote defecting). She had the green preferences on paper but they preferred to exhaust heavily or defected to Labor (only scrutineers know this at the moment). Worst of all she seems to have sought & got the residual/recividist Ward vote in places like the notorious Jamberoo JRFC, the Kangaroo Valley 2 heads, Falls Creek rednecks & Shoalhaven Heads. Still touting for it in Today’s Sun Herald praising Ward as “responsive, independent minded”, “hard working”, “available” & “He was could actually speak up on behalf of the community on issues that were not necessarily major party policies…”
Replacing Mark Speakman would be foolish, NSW is the only other jurisdiction where I could Liberals knock Labor out of office and they have a serious chance in 2027.
Battin is a better leader than Speakman, but he undoubtedly leads a more incompetent party overall.
Spacefish not true. There is a path for the WA libs to win. But right now I believe they would fall about 2 seats short. But that is subject to the redistribution alsothats s barring some scandal.
I think it’s unfair to judge Speakman based on the Kiama by-election result like some party insiders probably would.
First off, a thumping Labor win was expected. Before 2011, it was a solid Labor seat. Ward, like some others from the 2011 batch, flipped a Labor seat and increased the margin and built a buffer. Oatley and Drummoyne are also such seats. Also, when an MP exits due to trouble with the law, there would be electoral anger or disappointment. It was taken out on the Liberals even though Ward left the Liberals years ago. The large field of minor parties and independents, especially a teal, really helped split the vote.
I don’t think Speakman is that bad. The NSW Liberals are relatively unified and palatable for moderate Liberals, compared to say the Victorian or SA Liberals. Before the by-election, there were rumblings and rumours that he’s going to be replaced. They think he’s ineffective. SMH reports that Alister Henskens and Anthony Roberts want him gone. The issue with Speakman is that he is relatively unknown and it might be because it’s nowhere near election time.
Agree Votante, Speakman as a new leader and relative newcomer to Parliament overall is probably like Chris Minns or Peter Malinauskas when they were serving as Opposition leaders. Both were relatively unknown and only developed as a proven commodity closer to election time.
Spellman hasn’t done anything wrong. He’s not incompetent like the sa1 liberals he’s just up against a very good opponent in Chris minns minns like malakanukis and Cook have governed from the centre and haven’t had any bad policy decisions or political blunders. He just has to stay the course.
I think Speakman isn’t to blame for the Liberal Party losing the Kiama by-election. Both disgraced formal Liberal MP Gareth Ward’s criminal convictions and the Liberal party brand damage caused by the federal Liberals turned many former Liberal/Ward voters away from the Liberal Party, causing the Liberal primary vote at the by-election to be much lower than the combined Liberal and Ward vote in 2023. Both factors were outside of Speakman’s control. What’s more, Kiama was held by Labor for 30 years before Ward won it in 2011, therefore many Ward voters would be open to voting Labor once Ward is gone. The by-election is not a referendum on Speakman’s leadership. Trying to roll him will be foolish.
The last NSW state Resolve poll with a 59% ALP 2PP was mainly the result of the brand damage the NSW Liberal Party suffered as a result of their federal couterparts’ disastrous federal election campaign, which is not in Speakman’s control. What he could do, and what he is trying to do, is to appeal to voters that abandoned the federal Liberal Party, especially diverse and university-educated younger voters living in urban areas. Convincing tens of thousands of voters that abandoned the Liberal Party at the federal level to vote for the party at the NSW state level is a hugely challenging task that takes a great deal of time and effort, especially if the current state and federal Labor governments are still fairly popular.
Speakman is decent, astute and competent. He is not pursuing culture wars or indulging in endless negativity, and is instead trying to be as constructive as possible. Some of the NSW Coalition’s ideas like 70% emissions reduction target by 2035 and cracking down on illegal tobacco trade have been adopted by the Labor Government. Most importantly, he has the courage to stand up to his federal counterparts, including supporting the Voice in defiance of the federal Liberal Party’s position, as well as requesting the Liberal Party’s federal executive to install two NSW women on the initial panel running the NSW Liberal Party, a move that angered the conservatives. It will be completely nuts for the NSW Liberals to replace a decent and competent leader like Speakman based on the result of a single by-election where Labor was the clear favourite. Deposing Speakman will just make the problem worse, as it will make voters regard the NSW Liberal Party as divided and unfit to govern.
Thankfully, NSW Liberal MPs are wise enough not to consider challenging Speakman’s leadership.
Kiama was never liberal heartland, it’s a Labor seat that they lost due to years of corruption and the Eddie obeid saga. Ward managed to hold it with a fairly large personal vote. The teal would be best placed to topple Labor here. Kiama Shellharbour and Dapto are Labor voting areas. That said these boundaries make it hard for to sleep at night too
@Blue not John
I wonder if any polls can capture any pending exhaustion of votes. I do think Green -> Labor preference flow will be far weaker in 2027 than in 2023 (unless Libs install Anthony Roberts as leader).
Obviously using past preference data can’t help.
A simple 2pp poll probably also won’t work because Conscious Exhaust is not an option in those polls. Sure, “Don’t know” is an option in these polls but I feel like that’s a different thing. (Hard to explain)