Thursday 5:43pm – Queensland was much more decisive. On the second-last round:
- Roberts (ON) – 0.867 quotas
- Rennick (PF) – 0.506
- Jones (LGC) – 0.458
Legalise Cannabis actually came close to overtaking Rennick. Most of the Legalise Cannabis preferences exhausted, but enough flowed to put Roberts over quota:
- Roberts (ON) – 1.008 quotas
- Rennick (PF) – 0.550
- Jones (LGC) – 0.036
So Roberts defeated Rennick by 0.458 quotas, with another 0.036 in Legalise Cannabis yet to distribute. A very clear win.
Thursday 5:39pm – Looking at the distributions of preferences, the second-last round in the WA count looks like:
- Whitten (ON) – 0.780 quotas
- Singh (ALP) – 0.690
- Meotti (LGC) – 0.418
Legalise Cannabis preferences favoured Labor, and they fell short by 0.036 quotas:
- Whitten (ON) – 0.895
- Singh (ALP) – 0.859
I think that’s the closest outcome so far, even closer than Victoria.
Thursday 4:03pm – One Nation has also retained their seat in Queensland, defeating ex-LNP independent Gerard Rennick. Queensland has thus reverted to a 3-3 split after producing a 4-2 split in 2019.
Thursday 3:45pm – One Nation has won the final seat in Western Australia. This is the first time the party has ever won a Senate seat a half-Senate election outside Queensland. The result was 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens and 1 One Nation.
Wednesday 3:34pm – The WA button push is due for 1pm WA time tomorrow (3pm on the east coast), and Queensland is now due for 3:30pm.
Wednesday 3:00pm – So we now have the distribution of preferences for Victoria. With five seats already filled, the race for the last seat ended up with:
- Pickering (ON) – 0.727 quotas
- Ananda-Rajah (ALP) – 0.671
- Patten (LGC) – 0.467
And then Patten’s preferences pushed Ananda-Rajah in front:
- Ananda-Rajah (ALP) – 0.869
- Pickering (ON) – 0.814
In other news, the Queensland button-push is due for 2:30pm tomorrow, so we should find out the results shortly after that. The ACT count has also been finalised, with David Pocock and Katy Gallagher re-elected in that order. WA is also due this week but NSW might need to wait for next week.
Wednesday 10:20am – According to Six News, Victoria has produced another 4-2 split, with 3 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Greens. That means former Higgins MP Michelle Ananda-Rajah has won a Senate seat at the expense of ex-Liberal senator David Van. This means One Nation has missed out in what looked like one of their best prospects. That sixth seat won by Ananda-Rajah was won by Ralph Babet of the UAP in 2022.
Tuesday 4:50pm – The AEC has now also published the distribution of preferences for Tasmania.
In the second last round, with two seats left undecided, the positions were:
- Lambie (JLN) – 0.825 quotas
- Colbeck (LIB) – 0.801
- Falls (ALP) – 0.733
- Hanson (ON) – 0575
Hanson’s preferences then elected Lambie and Colbeck, with Labor left on about 0.8 quota. So the final margin was again about 0.2 quota.
Tuesday 1:08pm – The AEC has now published the distribution of preferences for South Australia.
The final seat was won by Labor’s third candidate on preferences from Legalise Cannabis. Walker passed the quota with just a few Legalise Cannabis votes left to distribute.
The final count was:
- Walker (ALP) – 1.003 quotas
- Game (ON) – 0.803 quotas
- Nies (LGC) – 0.009 quotas
That means the final margin is roughly 0.2 quotas, or about 2.85% of the vote.
Tuesday 11:22am – The AEC has now provided some further information about when more button pushes are due.
In a sign of how underwhelming and predictable the NT result was, that button push took place this morning without much attention. Labor and the Country Liberal Party each retained their seat.
Victoria’s button push is due at 9:30am tomorrow. That one will be very interesting with Labor and One Nation competing for the final seat. If One Nation win, it will be their first victory outside of Queensland at a half-Senate election in the party’s history.
The ACT button push is also expected tomorrow.
New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia are not yet ready.
Tuesday 10:38am – The prospects of Labor winning a third seat in Tasmania have not come off, and Tasmania has produced the same result as the last two elections: two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens and one from the Jacqui Lambie Network – this year, the party’s namesake.
Monday 4:38pm – As everyone had called, the Liberal Party has lost their third seat in South Australia’s to Labor’s Charlotte Walker. That is a 4-2 split. It’s worth remembering that traditionally these 4-2 splits are rare. Prior to 2025, Labor had gained two 4-2 splits (with the Democrats the fourth “left” senator) in NSW in 1990 and 1998, two in Tasmania in 2007 and 2010, and one in Western Australia in 2022.
South Australia was the most certain for 2025, but 4-2 splits also remain possible in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, with the possibility of a 4-1-1 split in Tasmania also possible.
We don’t have specific times for any of the other button pushes, although Northern Territory seems likely to be tomorrow, Tasmania and the ACT look close to being complete, and New South Wales is a long way off.
I’m going to use this live blog to post the final results, and if we know in advance I’ll flag when the button pushes are due here.
Words from Kevin Bonham is that the “button push” for Tasmania and the NT will be tomorrow, though only NT has confirmed the declaration date for Wednesday. Also worth noting that all ballots in Victoria has been apportioned.
Worth noting that Charlotte Walker of SA Labor is now the youngest senator in Australian history, having turned 21 on election day. Congrats to her!
Jacqui Lambie has snagged the fifth senate spot, Richard Colbeck the sixth.
Where’s the info on these button pushes? Is it on the AEC website? I haven’t been able to find it.
One quirk I noticed was Jacinta Nampijinpa Price being elected, at Count 24, on Labor preferences. Once the smattering of minor parties was excluded, the candidates left standing were:
– Chivers (SAP): 5236
– Laurence (LCP): 6086
– Alsop (ALP #2): 2210
– Price (CLP): 35,396
– Newport (GRN): 12,891
– Nugent (ON): 9297
Alsop (ALP #2) was next distributed, with 470 of 2210 votes (21.3%) flowing to Price.
A quirk from the SA count is that the Greens reached quota on preferences distributed on the elimination of the Family First candidate, getting 17.5% of the 33,298 votes distributed.
Albeit, Greens were immediately to the right of FF of the ballot and I’ve always suspected there is a group of voters that pay zero attention to their preferences, just filling out numbers to get to 6.
So it’s good news for one nation once lambie retires and the political pendulum returns to the centre
@Darth Vader if Lambie wasn’t running then I think Labor would have gotten 3 seats here as a lot of minor parties were preferencing Lambie ahead of Labor – even the Greens. In a future without Lambie it would put Libs back with a chance of 3 spots if they can act normally for a few years
Any news on the VIC result?
@Clarinet of Communists Kevin Bonham thinks that it will be 3 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Green. I guess we’ll see the confirmation for that very soon via the AEC.
Six News has reported another 4-2 split in Victoria. Labor beating ON for the final seat.
Michelle Ananda-Rajah must be thanking her lucky stars that the tide turned enough during the election campaign to get her re-elected when she was really supposed to be a placeholder on the Senate Ticket that Labor was expected to get hammered by in Victoria.
Meanwhile, the world’s smallest violin for One Nation.
Labor looks set to get a third seat in WA and NSW too. That’ll take them up to 30 seats vs 27 for the Coalition. A pretty big turnaround from the last Senate term when they had 25 vs 30 respectively. The rest of the crossbench, bar the Greens, must be peeved.
AEC has just confirmed the 6 senators for Victoria.
@bazza yes this time around but under normal election circumstances its a 3-3 split. this is lambies last election. so after 6 years it should be more into the centre. by that time
@John, Lee Hanson came 8th, after Labor’s 3rd candidate. Even if Lambie weren’t running, Hanson still would’ve missed out.
You have to remember that Lambie’s vote would be split up, and I’d say probably a fair amount would’ve gone to Hanson over the majors. Also the Labor vote was unexpectedly high this time around down there, in a more normal year I’d doubt the 3rd Labor would’ve beaten her.
Yeah, Labor’s vote was a high watermark in Tasmania this election. Also, wasn’t Lambie splitting a lot of the left-wing vote?
Next election, unless Tammy Tyrell ramps up her campaign or gets lucky with preferences, she could be at risk.
@votante tyrell will lose. to a Lambie candidate if she runs one. if not to a labor or one nation. I imagine that the state liberal govt will be defeated in 2028 either before or after the next federal election depending when albo calls it. and replaced by a labor-greens minority govt
@ John
Tasmania does not fixed term elections the latest the election can be called is 3rd June 2028. I think Albo would be wise to call it just before April not too close to state election.
@nimalan im aware of that thats why i said before or after
@ John
You are correct just adding a bit more detail. If there is a minority Labor-Green it will threaten the Albo’s chances of Braddon, Bass and Lyons but no impact on Franklin or the mainland. I actually hope Tasmania adopts fixed term elections.
@nimalan the threat in franklin would come from an ind or teal. rockliff will likely go as late as possible. so it will be after the federal election
@ John
Yes Franklin will remain a left wing seat in any case even if Labor loses it. Just like Clark will remain held by an IND or Labor if Wilkie retires but no chance of a Liberal victory anytime in the next decade as it is quite progressive seat.
@ i think that albo will it gonna hurt minns chances of reelection. the new super tax is probably gonna help the nats win back some of those ind/sff seats as well as in some of the well off seats. its gonna cause problems farther then the 80,000 the govt is speculating.
@ John
When you mean well off seats do you mean Wakehurst, Pittwater other rich seats like Manly, Lane Cove and Vaucluse are already Liberal held.
David Pocock and Katy Gallagher have been confirmed as the senator for the ACT.
yes. and theres no telling how far this super tax will reach because $3 million in super wont just be in seats like that.
Agree Nimalan, the NSW Coalition successfully sandbagged most of the ‘teal’ friendly seats at the state election with only Wakehurst being lost (Pittwater being a teal gain at a subsequent by election). Most of their losses were in the traditional ‘swing’ type districts (predominantly in Western Sydney but also some others like Monaro).
I believe this was because they focused more on an economic narrative like historical Coalition governments did federally (infrastructure delivery) and avoided steering into culture war territory.
Looks like Labor could finish up with 3 senators each in NSW, VIC, WA and SA, alongside a Green in each state. Will be a hell of a challenge for the Libs to claw that back next election, considering 2022 was a relatively on-par senate showing by Labor and the Greens. A lot would have to go wrong for Labor to be reduced to worse numbers than 2022 and rid the left-leaning parties of a senate majority in 3 years’ time.
@malben there will be no way to do that now
@ Malben
Best Prospect, for Libs is to pick up Fatima Payman’s senate seat in 2028 so a 3-3 split. That will still ensure a left wing majority until 2031. That is not hard. Where the Mount Everest climbs starts.
1. Get a couple of 4-2 Splits (in favour of Right) usually hard unless there is a landlide victory QLD is best prospect. WA next most likely state but still hard happened in 2013 but that was such a big defeat in WA. If WA Labor at a state level is very unpopular maybe there is a chance but everything needs to go right.
2. Defeat Pocock or Katy Gallagher in the ACT. I dont think moderate Liberals have any incentive to defeat Pocock as he is an Upper house MP and does not determine formation of governemnt. Unless ACT government after 27 years in power is very unpopular i cant see the Libs regaining that senate seat.
3. For this reason, i think Libs will even want to win government in 2028 as they will face a hostile senate and would just prepare for 2031 a two term strategy,
It looks like they are counting votes until One Nation loses.
What does that mean?
The cross bench is now irrelevant until at least 2031
@Bunfy … or (more accurately) the AEC is counting all the votes that arrived by the postal cut-off on 16 May, and One Nation did not get enough votes (adding together first-preference votes for One Nation, plus votes received by One Nation from voters supporting excluded candidates, plus votes received by One Nation as surpluses from candidates elected with more votes than the quota). Don’t forget that One Nation is still “in the running” for the 6th seat in WA, and theoretically also the 6th seat in NSW (but that one’s a longer shot).
Well reluctantly adding an extra final preference for Ananda-Rajah meant my vote flowed to her at the end instead of expiring and therefore I’m partially responsible for keeping One Nation out. Phew.
based on these margins being an unsually high water for labr which can be atributed to the poor lib campaign. on nation will likely win a senate seat in sa and vic in 2028. with the last senate spot in tas under a cloud.
I gave my no1 senate preference to one nation
@ John
I think ONP have a chance of taking Ralph Babet seat in 2028 unless the Libs win it back but that seat has never been held by the elft.
@nimalan the libs wont win it back. their vote is going the same way as labor across the country to the greens. except to one nation.
@ John
Fair point i dont think Babet will retain his seat in 2028 so i think ONP have a good chance to pick it up only isssue if Libs preferences Libertarians or Family First ahead of ONP.
@nimalan i dont see how he can given both UAP and ToP are now effectively no more. even if they do they will come back to ONP
One Nation have won their first senator outside of QLD, with their candidate Tyron Whitten just edging out Labor’s third spot Deep Singh.
@James One Nation elected Rod Culleton back in 2016.
They also elected a senator from NSW in 2016
@James @WL @Real Talk
Tyron Whitten is the first ON senator elected outside Queensland at a *half-senate* election. Rod Culleton (WA) and Brian Burston (NSW) were elected at a double-dissolution, reaching a much-reduced quota (7.7% instead of the usual 14.3%).
Fatima Payman might as well start job hunting now.