Tuesday 4:50pm – The AEC has now also published the distribution of preferences for Tasmania.
In the second last round, with two seats left undecided, the positions were:
- Lambie (JLN) – 0.825 quotas
- Colbeck (LIB) – 0.801
- Falls (ALP) – 0.733
- Hanson (ON) – 0575
Hanson’s preferences then elected Lambie and Colbeck, with Labor left on about 0.8 quota. So the final margin was again about 0.2 quota.
Tuesday 1:08pm – The AEC has now published the distribution of preferences for South Australia.
The final seat was won by Labor’s third candidate on preferences from Legalise Cannabis. Walker passed the quota with just a few Legalise Cannabis votes left to distribute.
The final count was:
- Walker (ALP) – 1.003 quotas
- Game (ON) – 0.803 quotas
- Nies (LGC) – 0.009 quotas
That means the final margin is roughly 0.2 quotas, or about 2.85% of the vote.
Tuesday 11:22am – The AEC has now provided some further information about when more button pushes are due.
In a sign of how underwhelming and predictable the NT result was, that button push took place this morning without much attention. Labor and the Country Liberal Party each retained their seat.
Victoria’s button push is due at 9:30am tomorrow. That one will be very interesting with Labor and One Nation competing for the final seat. If One Nation win, it will be their first victory outside of Queensland at a half-Senate election in the party’s history.
The ACT button push is also expected tomorrow.
New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia are not yet ready.
Tuesday 10:38am – The prospects of Labor winning a third seat in Tasmania have not come off, and Tasmania has produced the same result as the last two elections: two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens and one from the Jacqui Lambie Network – this year, the party’s namesake.
Monday 4:38pm – As everyone had called, the Liberal Party has lost their third seat in South Australia’s to Labor’s Charlotte Walker. That is a 4-2 split. It’s worth remembering that traditionally these 4-2 splits are rare. Prior to 2025, Labor had gained two 4-2 splits (with the Democrats the fourth “left” senator) in NSW in 1990 and 1998, two in Tasmania in 2007 and 2010, and one in Western Australia in 2022.
South Australia was the most certain for 2025, but 4-2 splits also remain possible in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, with the possibility of a 4-1-1 split in Tasmania also possible.
We don’t have specific times for any of the other button pushes, although Northern Territory seems likely to be tomorrow, Tasmania and the ACT look close to being complete, and New South Wales is a long way off.
I’m going to use this live blog to post the final results, and if we know in advance I’ll flag when the button pushes are due here.
Words from Kevin Bonham is that the “button push” for Tasmania and the NT will be tomorrow, though only NT has confirmed the declaration date for Wednesday. Also worth noting that all ballots in Victoria has been apportioned.
Worth noting that Charlotte Walker of SA Labor is now the youngest senator in Australian history, having turned 21 on election day. Congrats to her!
Jacqui Lambie has snagged the fifth senate spot, Richard Colbeck the sixth.
Where’s the info on these button pushes? Is it on the AEC website? I haven’t been able to find it.
One quirk I noticed was Jacinta Nampijinpa Price being elected, at Count 24, on Labor preferences. Once the smattering of minor parties was excluded, the candidates left standing were:
– Chivers (SAP): 5236
– Laurence (LCP): 6086
– Alsop (ALP #2): 2210
– Price (CLP): 35,396
– Newport (GRN): 12,891
– Nugent (ON): 9297
Alsop (ALP #2) was next distributed, with 470 of 2210 votes (21.3%) flowing to Price.
A quirk from the SA count is that the Greens reached quota on preferences distributed on the elimination of the Family First candidate, getting 17.5% of the 33,298 votes distributed.
Albeit, Greens were immediately to the right of FF of the ballot and I’ve always suspected there is a group of voters that pay zero attention to their preferences, just filling out numbers to get to 6.