Friday 2:47pm – The distribution of preferences has been published in New South Wales, and here is the last three rounds. In the third-last round, there were four candidates left competing for two seats when Legalise Cannabis was excluded:
- Faruqi (GRN) – 0.9456 quotas
- Stacey (ON) – 0.7897
- Beljic (ALP) – 0.7566
- Hunt (LGC) – 0.3956
Legalise Cannabis preferences push Faruqi over quota, but importantly also favour One Nation more than Labor – giving almost 0.1 quota to One Nation and less than 0.07 to Labor:
- Faruqi (GRN) – 1.0686
- Stacey (ON) – 0.8855
- Beljic (ALP) – 0.8232
At this point almost all of Faruqi’s preferences would have needed to flow to Labor. Just 63.9% flowed to Labor, 8.4% to One Nation and 27.7% exhausted, leaving the final outcome as:
- Stacey (ON) – 0.8913
- Beljic (ALP) – 0.8670
One Nation won by 17,326 votes, or 0.0243 quotas, or 0.347% of the total formal vote.
I’m ending the live blog here. I’ve been collating some other data about the Senate race and will do a post tonight or tomorrow morning.
Friday 10:18am – The final Senate result is in, and One Nation has won another Senate seat. This means they’ve won three seats at this election, and have four seats total.
The result in NSW is 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens and 1 One Nation, with One Nation taking a seat from Perin Davey, the former Nationals deputy leader.
We will be able to analyse the margin later today.
Thursday 5:43pm – Queensland was much more decisive. On the second-last round:
- Roberts (ON) – 0.867 quotas
- Rennick (PF) – 0.506
- Jones (LGC) – 0.458
Legalise Cannabis actually came close to overtaking Rennick. Most of the Legalise Cannabis preferences exhausted, but enough flowed to put Roberts over quota:
- Roberts (ON) – 1.008 quotas
- Rennick (PF) – 0.550
- Jones (LGC) – 0.036
So Roberts defeated Rennick by 0.458 quotas, with another 0.036 in Legalise Cannabis yet to distribute. A very clear win.
Thursday 5:39pm – Looking at the distributions of preferences, the second-last round in the WA count looks like:
- Whitten (ON) – 0.780 quotas
- Singh (ALP) – 0.690
- Meotti (LGC) – 0.418
Legalise Cannabis preferences favoured Labor, and they fell short by 0.036 quotas:
- Whitten (ON) – 0.895
- Singh (ALP) – 0.859
I think that’s the closest outcome so far, even closer than Victoria.
Thursday 4:03pm – One Nation has also retained their seat in Queensland, defeating ex-LNP independent Gerard Rennick. Queensland has thus reverted to a 3-3 split after producing a 4-2 split in 2019.
Thursday 3:45pm – One Nation has won the final seat in Western Australia. This is the first time the party has ever won a Senate seat a half-Senate election outside Queensland. The result was 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens and 1 One Nation.
Wednesday 3:34pm – The WA button push is due for 1pm WA time tomorrow (3pm on the east coast), and Queensland is now due for 3:30pm.
Wednesday 3:00pm – So we now have the distribution of preferences for Victoria. With five seats already filled, the race for the last seat ended up with:
- Pickering (ON) – 0.727 quotas
- Ananda-Rajah (ALP) – 0.671
- Patten (LGC) – 0.467
And then Patten’s preferences pushed Ananda-Rajah in front:
- Ananda-Rajah (ALP) – 0.869
- Pickering (ON) – 0.814
In other news, the Queensland button-push is due for 2:30pm tomorrow, so we should find out the results shortly after that. The ACT count has also been finalised, with David Pocock and Katy Gallagher re-elected in that order. WA is also due this week but NSW might need to wait for next week.
Wednesday 10:20am – According to Six News, Victoria has produced another 4-2 split, with 3 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Greens. That means former Higgins MP Michelle Ananda-Rajah has won a Senate seat at the expense of ex-Liberal senator David Van. This means One Nation has missed out in what looked like one of their best prospects. That sixth seat won by Ananda-Rajah was won by Ralph Babet of the UAP in 2022.
Tuesday 4:50pm – The AEC has now also published the distribution of preferences for Tasmania.
In the second last round, with two seats left undecided, the positions were:
- Lambie (JLN) – 0.825 quotas
- Colbeck (LIB) – 0.801
- Falls (ALP) – 0.733
- Hanson (ON) – 0575
Hanson’s preferences then elected Lambie and Colbeck, with Labor left on about 0.8 quota. So the final margin was again about 0.2 quota.
Tuesday 1:08pm – The AEC has now published the distribution of preferences for South Australia.
The final seat was won by Labor’s third candidate on preferences from Legalise Cannabis. Walker passed the quota with just a few Legalise Cannabis votes left to distribute.
The final count was:
- Walker (ALP) – 1.003 quotas
- Game (ON) – 0.803 quotas
- Nies (LGC) – 0.009 quotas
That means the final margin is roughly 0.2 quotas, or about 2.85% of the vote.
Tuesday 11:22am – The AEC has now provided some further information about when more button pushes are due.
In a sign of how underwhelming and predictable the NT result was, that button push took place this morning without much attention. Labor and the Country Liberal Party each retained their seat.
Victoria’s button push is due at 9:30am tomorrow. That one will be very interesting with Labor and One Nation competing for the final seat. If One Nation win, it will be their first victory outside of Queensland at a half-Senate election in the party’s history.
The ACT button push is also expected tomorrow.
New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia are not yet ready.
Tuesday 10:38am – The prospects of Labor winning a third seat in Tasmania have not come off, and Tasmania has produced the same result as the last two elections: two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens and one from the Jacqui Lambie Network – this year, the party’s namesake.
Monday 4:38pm – As everyone had called, the Liberal Party has lost their third seat in South Australia’s to Labor’s Charlotte Walker. That is a 4-2 split. It’s worth remembering that traditionally these 4-2 splits are rare. Prior to 2025, Labor had gained two 4-2 splits (with the Democrats the fourth “left” senator) in NSW in 1990 and 1998, two in Tasmania in 2007 and 2010, and one in Western Australia in 2022.
South Australia was the most certain for 2025, but 4-2 splits also remain possible in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, with the possibility of a 4-1-1 split in Tasmania also possible.
We don’t have specific times for any of the other button pushes, although Northern Territory seems likely to be tomorrow, Tasmania and the ACT look close to being complete, and New South Wales is a long way off.
I’m going to use this live blog to post the final results, and if we know in advance I’ll flag when the button pushes are due here.
@ votante
I dont think UAP is much of a future thats all. TOP did much worse than UAP did in 2022.
I wonder if Mr Whitten will still be a member of One Nation this time next year
@bazza my thought exactly. This One Nation person will probably have quit the party due to ‘irreconcilable differences’ halfway through this parliamentary term like Cullerton and Burston. That’s all these extreme far right nutjobs know. I’m surprised Roberts is still in One Nation though I’d imagine he’s running off the smelly rag that is the brand of Pauline Hanson in her home state.
Most One Nation MPs, state or federal, don’t even last a term.
@Nimalan, it depends on whether he wants to serve another term. He may just run again with no intent of winning just to get his consolation prize or golden handshake.
@ Votante
Fair point he may not expect a second term anyway.
One Nation did well this time and increased their vote in most states because of:
1. The drop in the LNP vote.
2. Swings away from Trumpet of Patriots and Libertarians compared to UAP and Liberal Democrats.
3. LNP putting One Nation second on their HTV for the senate in all states except NSW and VIC.
On top of that Trumpets and Libertarian preferences spraying everywhere instead of as per their how to votes.
I actually think One Nation did worse than they should have. There were four or five seats up for the taking with the drop in the Coalition primary, but they did not get a significant shift towards them. Pretty much all the polls were expecting them to get more of the primary vote share than they did.
Votentate
True, but it also required the right level of Libs/Nationals decline. L/NP had handy surpluses to distribute to PHON in WA & Victoria – which helped the PHON performance in the races against ALP.. In Queensland PHON, naturally, were able to hit a good lead under their own steam, & a handy LNP surplus distribution was merely icing on the cake, in a race against an LNP ‘rat’.
Elsewhere, the Lib surplus was negligible or worse.
So the One Nation party room starts the term post 1 July with 4 senators. It is too early to say how Pauline Hanson manages it. I have a month to get the popcorn.
@Andrew it’ll be three not four.
NP – Ben and Anthony Green have indicated that One Nation will narrowly win the last Senate seat in NSW, defeating Labor who was ahead on primary votes.
@ Nether Portal , in addition to Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts (both QLD), the Senate now (post 1 July) has Tyron Whitten (WA) and Warwick Stacey (NSW). The AEC has pressed the last button earlier this morning.
The last time One Nation had 4 senators was just after the 2016 full senate election. It will be interesting to see if the 2 newbies will stay is the party for a whole term.
Votante, surprisingly the last two One Nation Senators who served 2016-2019 also came from the same two states as the current newcomers (Brian Burston, NSW and Rod Culleton, WA)
@Andrew @Votante thanks for the correction.
@Yoh A not really that surprising given that’s where they get most of their support from.
It’s meaningless one nation and the crossbench are no longer relevant for at least the next 2 parliamentary terms. Only the greens or coalition are needed to pass legislation
One nation could possibly extend their reach next term and add up to 5 more senators
i do agree that the the cross bench are irrelevant unless there is a defection of a Labor/Greens senator. The Greens will have 12 senators in 2028 they wil win a seat in Victoria. Unless there is a 4-2 Right split in WA or QLD in 2028 this majority will continue unill 2031.
It’s not meaningless at all it further entrenches them and gains them resources.
so if you have 5 MPs you get party status. ON now has 4 senators and is one short. So they could get Ralph Babet of the now unregistered UAP to join.
This would of course assume that the senators all remain in ON
also the count seems to show that the lack of left-leaning smaller parties and low LNP vote was what cost Labor the extra spot to ON
The small LNP surplus went to ON as did preferences from Rennick, Libertarian, Cristians, FF, Trumpets
For Labor, the Greens seemed to be just under 1 quota so were getting the smaller amount of preferences from left leaning parties rather than going to Labor first
Also looks like Legalise Canabis got to the final round in most states
Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice flows seemed to be less strong than predicted (while still strong) to Labor in most states it appears too
since Greens took till the end to get elected in NSW they took most of the AJP and LGC preferences first – and they didn’t flow as strongly to Labor
Also ON tends to get a higher flow from LGC than would be expected on party idealogy
LGC brings together a fairly wide array of ideological positions among voters because it advertises itself as a single-issue party, and that issue can appeal to very different people. It’s not that surprising its preferences would spray around to One Nation from an anti-government perspective.
Lgc tends to attract votes as a protest vote and because of the name. It’s not surprising their preferences aren’t as strong
I think the next WA Senate election will have Labor (#3), Payman and ONP fighting out for that 6th spot.
Payman won’t come close. It will be a onp win. As long as libs preference them. Onp would have beaten Payman in 2022 and possibly Tyrell if libs preferenced them instead a heap of libs preferences exhausted on the final count.
Very rarely do party quitters or defectors end up getting re-elected. Senator Lambie is an exception.
Australia’s Voice got 0.7% on primaries in WA and didn’t start off in the top 10. I doubt Senator Payman’s chance of re-election. Perhaps she will have more luck at the state election.
@ Votante
I dont think Lidia Thorpe and Fatima Payman will be relected as independents/minor parties. I am just saying if hypothetically a greens or Labor senator defects this term then they may need to rely on crossbench of others.
@Votante Tasmania is an exception because of the much smaller vote required for a Senate quota and a certain degree of parochialism.
If either or both Thorpe or Payman resign, the Greens and the ALP will choose their respective successors per the 1977 referendum outcome.
Decided to look through the top 6 below-the-line first preference votes for each state to see if any individual candidates stood out. Obviously higher numbers of candidates in a party splits the BTL vote a bit more, but some notable candidates stick out regardless.
NSW:
Tony Sheldon (Labor, 37.6%) – 49,972
Andrew Bragg (Liberal, 29.4%) – 28,464
Mehreen Faruqi (Greens, 11.2%) – 25,413
Warwick Stacey (One Nation, 6.1%) – 13,684
Miles Hunt (Legalise Cannabis, 3.5%) – 6,417
Lyle Shelton (Family First, 1.6%) – 5,280
VIC:
Raffaele Ciccone (ALP, 34.7%) – 30,897
James Paterson (Lib, 31.4%) – 30,374
Steph Hodgins-May (GRN, 12.5%) – 28,023
Fiona Patten (LC, 3.6%) – 13,334
Jordan van den Lamb (Vic Socialists, 1.5%) – 12,182
Warren Pickering (ON, 4.4%) – 7,674
QLD:
Nita Green (ALP, 30.5%) – 25,373
Larissa Waters (GRN, 10.5%) – 22,422
Paul Scarr (LNP, 30.9%) – 19,107
Gerard Rennick (People First, 4.69% with KAP) – 13,267
Malcolm Roberts (ON, 7.1%) – 13,005
Belinda Jones (LC, 3.5%) – 5,411
WA:
Jordon Steele-John (GRN, 12.8%) – 10,566
Ellie Whiteaker (ALP, 36.2%) – 10,549
Slade Brockman (Lib, 26.6%) – 5,744
Tyron Whitten (ON, 5.9%) – 3,621
Madison King (PFP, 1.5%) – 2,628
Steve Klomp (Christians, 2.7%) – 2,326
SA:
Sarah Hanson-Young (GRN, 12.9%) – 14,045
Marielle Smith (ALP, 38.1%) – 11,383
Alex Antic (Lib, 27.6%) – 8,410
Rex Patrick (Lambie Network, 2.7%) – 5,091
Jennifer Game (ON, 5.3%) – 3,838
Anne Ruston* (Lib, 27.6%) – 2,482
TAS:
Nick McKim (GRN, 16.3%) – 17,053
Carol Brown (ALP, 35.2%) – 12,358
Jacqui Lambie (JLN, 7.3%) – 7,385
Claire Chandler (Lib, 23.5%) – 6,300
Richard Colbeck* (Lib, 23.5%) – 4,064
Lee Hanson (ON, 5.2%) – 3,756
(* marks Liberal candidates who were the second on the party list in SA and Tas where they only ran 4 and 3 candidates respectively)