Federal election prediction thread

It can’t happen – Malcolm Roberts and Jacqui Lambie can’t lose their seats. I will have no entertainment whilst cooking dinner and listening to the senate on the radio. I tell you folks – it can’t be allowed to happen!!

OK Here it goes folks. It is going to be a range as there are seats that I can’t just pick. I had it on the wrong thread

Labor: 69 – 82. Win – Sturt, Moore, Brisbane. Lose – Menzies, Paterson, Aston, Bullwinkel, Richmond, Macnamara. Lose Bennelong but that is in Liberal number already.

LNP: 55 -68. Win – Menzies, Paterson, Aston, Bullwinkel, Kooyong. Lose – Sturt, Moore, Calare

Greens: 4 – 6. Win – Richmond, Macnamara.

Independents: 12 – 16 Win – Calare – Gee. Lose – Kooyong.

Too close to call
Labor – Gilmore, Lyons, Lingiari, McEwen, Chisholm, Franklin (against George) – 5 against LNP, 1 against Ind.

LNP – Deakin, Monash (against Broadbent) , Wannon, Cowper. 3 against Ind, 1 against ALP

Greens – Griffith – depends on LNP coming third.

Besides the too close to call there are seats that will be really close but I think I can call:
I put it on the wrong thread ….

– Bradfield to Libs. I just don’t think there much swing left against the Libs
– Goldstein – I think it will be close but Zoe Daniel will hold on.
– Wills – Peter Khalil to hold on
– Bonner – LNP to lose no seats in Qld but win none either. This could be the close one.
– Ryan – Greens to hold on.

Roughies – not included above: Hawke, Solomon, Hunter (possible One Nation)

I think the Greens and Independents are more likely to get to their high range rather than Labor or the Libs. My view is that Albo doesn’t need to be cleaning out the wardrobes at the Lodge – Labor will be closer to their high end and the Libs closer to their low end.

Sportsbet odds are the best predictor.

My Prediction
https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=1mHLsyh0EpblMHWfm6Gwvw3okmPUivnY&usp=sharing

Pauline hanson will be the biggest winner. She will cement her place as the alternative right party. Gains senatr spots in WA Vic and maybe Tasmania.

Redustributed labor cant lose franklin in a vs george contest due to lib preferences the only way george wins is if labor drops to 3rd and he wins off labor preferences vs libs

Less than 24 hours till First polls close. I am hoping there will be a final newspoll released later tonight

Greetings from the UK.

I’m saying Labor minority and am standing by my most recent predictions.

DV The big issue to me in Franklin is where Blomeleys preferences are being directed – does anybody know?

No idea

I won’t make specific seat predictions, but I will make 3 general predictions.

1: The Greens recent small but significant loss of votes in the inner city offset by small but significant increases in the outer suburbs will continue, making it hard to retain the 3 Brisbane seats and to gain the 2 Melbourne targets.
2: ONs lack of ground game means the Libs primary will be higher, possibly quite a bit higher, than the polls are showing.
3: Again on ON and this comes with an if, if the polls are right and the Libs are bleeding votes to ON and the minor right parties, the preference flow to the Libs will be stronger than the polls show.

I’m collecting predictions for a few seats (mainly ones friends live it), if anyone wants to have a shot https://jokevinegar.org/election-2025/

Where are George’s preferences going.

@John, George’s preferences will be going to himself, in the hopes that he makes the 2CP. If not, I would expect a sizeable majority of his voters to preference Labor above the Coalition.

I assumed so who is one nation preferencing 2nd and 3rd.

Google it, mate.

https://vote.onenation.org.au/Vote

One Nation has preferenced the Coalition over Labor and the Greens in every seat while TOP has preferenced all incumbents last, even Bob Katter.

Speaking of the UK, my good friend who is an expat in the UK (she’s a sportswoman so I won’t name her, interesting story how we became friends though) has voted too. I wish we could see the booth results for overseas votes, e.g how specific cities like Auckland or London voted.

@Nick G I can’t tell what colour Lingiari is in that map.

As for my prediction, I posted this on the other thread about a week ago (I think).

Link: https://jmp.sh/3999rPUL

Anyone know a tool I can use to map my final prediction?

@Adam:

https://yapms.com/app/aus/house/2025001/blank

I feel as if this election is best described as unstoppable force meets immovable object.
The unstoppable force is the sheer incompetence of the opposition, a coalition of the question-dodging, candidate-disendorsing & self-contradicting. The immovable object being the natural blame the voters will hang on the government for the cost of living crisis.

Starting from the Aston by-election (not counting independents who have quit their elected party, redistributions)

ALP -> LIB seats: McEwen, Gilmore
LIB -> ALP seats: Sturt
ALP -> GRN seats: Wills
NAT/LIB -> IND seats: Calare, Cowper, Bradfield, Wannon

Labor: 76 (-2)
Coalition: 55 (-3)
Greens: 5 (+1)

Both majors will see their primary votes fall, there’ll be a natural attraction to independents/non-major incumbents (hence why I’m bucking the consensus here of Labor winning Brisbane) and some races that end up all over the place. The TPP will swing 1-2% either way, it’ll rise slightly in SA/WA/Qld/NSW, contract by what it rises in these states in Vic/NT, there’ll be a primary vote fall across the board.

Some races I can’t say with any certainty, I can see Paterson & Hunter falling, but I can also see Moore & Canning, for every Werriwa there’s a Leichhardt. Even if I’m way off in my specific seat prediction I’m confident of a range of 74-78 for Labor and 53-58 for the Coalition, gains could be tit for tat, so I’ll stick with whose incumbent.

If Labor are short by two or three it won’t be a repeat of 2010 and it would be ridiculous to assume the Liberals would therefore win in 2028 as they did in 2013. A major party short by two with a crossbench of fifteen is going to find governing much easier than a major party short by four with a crossbench of six. If The Greens are too demanding consult the teals, if the teals are too demanding consult Gee & Dyson.

Dutton should quit as Liberal leader, I genuinely can’t imagine anybody else botching an election like this. Above all else, how lucky is Albo?

With no confidence at all – Labor 72, Coalition 59, Cross-bench 19

Only Senate seats in doubt are:
Queensland 6th seat completion between LNP & ONP
WA 6th seat between Labor & ONP

@NP Lingiari is light blue. I have it as a CLP win of about 2%

@Nick G thanks for the clarification. I agree with that, it won’t be the same margin as the Territory election was (58% in both seats) but Lingiari should fall and Solomon should go marginal again.

I’ll concur with some of the other comments on a slim Labor majority or higher end minority. I’m quite interested to see which ones end up the surprise seats. Tbh, even the ones that are “guaranteed flips” like Aston, I wouldn’t even be surprised if it ended up a retain, while a Labor seat on a higher margin like Hawke flips.

If there is a shy Tory factor in this election there will be a lot of red faces, including mine.

Summary:

ALP – 78
Coalition – 54
Green – 3
Katter – 1
Centre Alliance – 1
Independents – 13

Changing seats:

ALP > Coalition – Aston, Gilmore, Lyons, McEwen
Coalition > ALP – Leichhardt, Moore, Sturt
Green > ALP – Brisbane
Coalition > Independent – Bradfield, Calare, Cowper, Wannon

Just a correction to my prediction: ALP to hold Bennelong although 0.2 nominally Liberal since redistribution

In every aspect of human activity in Australia where the state once either played a role or monopolised that role – telecommunications, health, education, housing, transport, and so on and so forth – there is now a corporate replacement or competitor. The state and it’s actors have largely been eclipsed by corporations. No government can tell Coles and Woolworths what to do, let alone Google, Meta or Tesla. Your GP is in a MyHealth clinic owned by Medibank. Your once family owned bus service is probably now run by an overseas multinational. You pay your ever increasing road tolls to a multinational monopoly, Transurban. And who controls the banks? Even welfare services are delivered through corporate payment cards and corporate job agencies. Public Housing fills the gap that was once played by public psychiatric institutions while private agencies supply a trickle of affordable dwellings using corporate models. Even the sports you watch are sponsored by multinational corporations and broadcast by multinational media companies. Corporations have largely taken over your life. You are dependent upon their phones, their financial services, their employment contracts, the products their prepared to sell you. They have the ear of government, not you. And there’s not a damned thing the ALP or the Coalition are going to do about it. They rely on corporate donations to exist.

And it’s not going to change anytime soon.

But in the meantime we have this little beauty contest for ugly people we misname democracy. Go on. Enjoy it. It makes wonderful theater.

But don’t make the mistake of thinking it’s for your benefit…

Breaking Final Newspoll released
1. Labor TPP 52.5 to 47.5 a 0.6% swing to Labor from last election
2. Labor Primary 33% up from last election and Coaltion 34% which is a drop from last election and will be lowest ever.
3. Preferred PM Albo 51% Dutton 35%
I cant find state breakdowns but if someone does and posts that will be great.

Overall predictions:
1. Labor to fall just short of a majority – maybe 73 to 75. There will be lots of seat-swapping and so no side will get a huge net gain.

2. Biggest Labor’s primary vote decreases in:
– Red-wall seats in western and outer-suburban Melbourne and South-Western and Western Sydney. The votes aren’t all going to the Liberals but to minor parties and independents. There will be vote-splitting and wild preference flows.
– Regional Labor electorates e.g. Shortland, Patterson, Whitlam, McEwan, Lyons
– Peri-urban electorates e.g. Casey, La Trobe, Monash

3. Greens loss in primary votes in inner-city electorates but will be offset by a rise in middle-ring and outer-ring electorates.

4. LNP nationwide primary vote to decrease with votes going to independents (mainly teals and the Coalition leavers) and right-wing minor parties.

5. Labor’s statewide 2PP improves in SA and very likely in WA as well.

My one prediction is that the Liberals will have no more safe seats (TPPV > 60%) after the election than they had before it. And that’s a critical point, because (as distinct from the NP, QLD LNP and the NT CLP), the Liberals only currently have five safe seats nationwide: Mitchell, Cook, Farrer, Barker and Grey. Only two are in metropolitan areas; there are no safe Liberal seats in Victoria, WA, Tasmania or the territories. This makes it very much harder for the party build rebuild and maintain a talent pool which looks to be sadly lacking right now. In days gone by the offer of a safe seat could induce people of real ability to run for the party – the likes of Bob Ellicott, John Spender and so on. Now there are more safe Liberal seats in the Senate than in the House. Labor, by way of contrast, has 36 safe seats.

Labor, by way of contrast, has 36.

Ah yes, the Great Corporate Takeover Manifesto, delivered in glorious doomer monotone by Lachlan, who’s just discovered neoliberalism only to immediately surrender to it.

“The state and its actors have largely been eclipsed by corporations.”

Cool sentence. Sounds dramatic. But let me ask you something:
Who regulates the banks? Who owns the NDIS? Who funded the vaccines?
Who runs Medicare, Centrelink, the ATO, the PBS, and every road you’ve ever driven on that isn’t a toll road?

You’re not describing an anarcho-corporate wasteland. You’re describing a mixed economy with public-private dysfunctions. Welcome to every Western democracy since 1980.

“No government can tell Coles and Woolies what to do.”

That’s funny, because last time I checked, they’re both subject to regulation, fair trading laws, and frequent Senate inquiries where they try (and fail) to explain price-gouging without sweating through their suits. They’re not untouchable. They’re just powerful, and politicians often choose not to touch them. That’s cowardice, not inevitability.

“Even the sports you watch are sponsored by multinationals.”

Congratulations on realising that sport is commercialised. Were you also shocked to learn Santa isn’t real and the Wiggles don’t write their own tax policy?

“Democracy is a beauty contest for ugly people.”

Wow. Edgy. Deep. Strangely poetic. You might have a future as a speech writer for the next leader of the opposition.

Look, mate. You’re not wrong that corporations have too much influence. But the idea that nothing matters and that voting is just sad kabuki theatre? You might need to find your kindred spirits at another discussion board.

Something went wrong with my editing of my previous comment, but you get the drift! 🙂

Final Prediction
Changing Seats
ALP TO LIB ALP TO GRN GRN TO ALP LIB TO IND IND TO LIB
Gilmore Wills Brisbane Bradfield Moore
Aston Richmond Wannon
McEwen
Lingiari

Seat Totals
ALP 73
L/NP 56
Greens 5
Katter 1
Centre Alliance 1
Independent 14

Sturt is the last inner-city Liberal seat in the country and last Liberal seat in metro Adelaide. Liberals could be wiped out of Adelaide completely.

Stephen Koukoulas, an economist, posted this about seat betting:
Labor – 77
Coalition – 59
Others (no breakdown) – 13
One tie between Coalition and Independent. He means Kooyong.

My final prediction:

Labor – 80
Lib/Nats – 55
Greens – 2
Other – 13

Labor gains: Deakin, Sturt, Leichardt, Dickson, Brisbane, Griffith
Coalition gains: McEwen, Aston, Paterson, Bullwinkel,
Ind gains: Wannon, Bradfield

Not including Bennelong as a Labor gain because there is already a Labor MP, likewise for Menzies with Liberal MP. Also expecting Monash, Moore, Calare etc to remain with the parties they elected in 2022 (defectors will lose).

I predict that Real Talk will have an aneurysm with how snippy he’s been these last few days. Time for a Bex and lie down.

Lots of seats that feel line-ball. Aston and Sturt are the only two I’m certain will change hands.

@Votante Sturt and Bradfield are the last two inner city Liberal seats. From the vibes I’m getting Sturt is pretty much 95% chance of being gone, whereas Bradfield is also likely to be tipping over.

Either way if both eventuates, it will be utterly humiliating for the Liberals to not hold a single seat in metro Adelaide, likewise with the North Shore of Sydney.

Ind further gains
Calare Cowper
? Wannon Monash

@Tommo9, oh yes, Bradfield could be considered ‘inner city’ depending on how you look at it. By ‘inner city’, I meant a mainland state capital city CBD seat or its next-door neighbour.

Liberals also hold Berowra

Likely IND gains – one or two of the following – Bradfield, Cowper, Wannon. Sportsbet has shorter odds for teals in Bradfield and Cowper than for the LNP. In Wannon, they’re equal.

Mick, I currently count Calare as an IND seat.

@Michael Maly there are also three safe Liberal LNP seats in Queensland: Fadden (my seat), Herbert and Moncrieff.

Herbert on the margin is safe but in actuality it is not

On SportsBet you can literally bet on the tie colour of each leader. Am I the only one who finds this funny? 🤣

On the more serious topics, SportsBet predicts Dutton lose and resign before being replaced by Angus Taylor.

ALP: 77
L/NP: 50
GRN: 7
IND: 16

ALP gains: Moore, Bass & Sturt
Greens gain: Richmond, Macnamara & Wills
Inds gains: Wannon, Monash (Leonard), Calare (Gee), Cowper & Bradfield

Angus Taylor being the alternative opposition leader just goes to show how devoid of talent the LNP are.

Well Mick, I guess to can just change definitions when it suits your world view.

Michael Maley – there is a good reason there is no talent in the Liberal Party and that’s because we are all in the real world earning proper money and working 60 hrs a week – in the office!!!! We don’t have time for it. Personally, I’d be a very good candidate for the Liberal Party but why would I subject myself to this? Labor is different because they all grow up through the union movement. Albo is a perfect example. The only real job he had was for 10 hrs a week at uni. It’s a wonder that the Libs have governed over the last 40 years for as long as they have given their disadvantage.