9:39 – With all the results for ordinary election day booths reported, I’ve put together a map showing the two-candidate-preferred results and swings by booth.
There is a clear trend – while there were substantial swings to the LNP across the electorate, they were much bigger in the Hinchinbrook Shire that makes up the middle of the electorate.
If the rest of the seat produced swings similar to those seen in the City of Townsville, KAP may have held on.
9:14 – While there are still some votes to be counted, I can’t see KAP coming back and winning this.
8:40 – The Deeragun pre-poll and a batch of postal votes have been reported, and the LNP’s primary vote swing is steady on about 10%.
8:14 – We now have eleven booths reporting preference counts, and the LNP is leading with 52.8% to 47.2% for KAP. I expect this lead to shrink. It’s not over, but the LNP remain favourites.
7:39 – And just as I wrote that, Lower Tully reported. The KAP primary is down just 2.8% there.
7:38 – Just three of the ordinary election day booths are yet to report primary votes: Cardwell, Lower Tully and Rupertswood.
7:37 – The primary votes have rushed in, with 18 booths reporting now. The LNP’s lead, but they still hold a substantial lead. The LNP is on 38.4% (+13%) while KAP is on 29.3% (-18.5%) with One Nation on 15% (+10.2%).
7:34 – And that same booth has now reported its 2CP figure, and there was a 16% swing from KAP to LNP.
7:19 – The early telephone voting booth has reported, with KAP suffering a 19.0% swing and One Nation up 14.7%.
7:18 – In other news, a referendum was held today on deamalgamating Snowy Valleys council in south-eastern NSW. At the moment, the pro-deamalgamation side is polling over 85% of the formal vote, with most vote categories reported. This looks set to be an overwhelming victory, and will likely lead to the former Tumut and Tumbarumba councils being restored.
7:15 – We’re yet to get any two-candidate-preferred figures yet. It’s worth noting that KAP outpolled the LNP by 18 points on primary votes in 2024, 46-28, and ended up winning with a 13.1% margin, which is basically a 26-point lead by the same method. So KAP did gain some ground on the LNP after preferences, but not a huge amount. They mostly won thanks to a large primary vote lead. One Nation is preferencing the LNP this time, which could help them out.
7:12 – Deeragun has reported, the largest booth so far. The swing against KAP there is just 11.2%, with One Nation up 5.5% and the LNP up 10.9%. Overall this shifts my projection on primary votes to LNP 43.6% and KAP 23.6%. Those numbers are still pretty strong for the LNP.
7:02 – Eight booths have reported, and the LNP is on 43.8%, with Katter’s Australian Party second on 25.7% and One Nation on 19.3%.
That’s a swing of 19.5% to the LNP and 15.6% to One Nation, and 33.7% away from KAP. Good early signs for the LNP.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the by-election for the state seat of Hinchinbrook in the north of Queensland.
I will be doing a few updates through the night and may decide to do a video for Instagram and Tiktok later tonight, but I don’t expect it to be the most intense election night.
If you’re looking for something to read while you wait for results to come in, you can check out my guide.
Thuringowa is inner-city Townsville?! Didn’t get that impression when I was on my relatives’ acreage in Kelso. Willows and North Shore Marketplace are roughly equidistant from the CBD, as is Lake Ross and Black River.
Ok it’s partly inner city Townsville the seat is named after the former city of Thirongowa which is now apart of Townsville LGA