Canning – Australia 2028

https://demosau.com/news/mrp-model-projects-one-nation-would-win-12-seats/

There’s plenty of pages where I could talk about this MRP poll but their result in Canning proves to be their most “interesting” one. One Nation manages to knock off the Liberals from 2pp and win this electorate. I’m sure this is an MRP anomaly but if projections/MRPs keep giving this to ON I wonder if the National Right faction (specifically the “New Guard” wing) becomes more hostile to ON, especially if Hastie becomes the leader of the Liberal party.

National Party in trouble in 9 of their 15 seats plus 4 partly rural Liberal Qld seats and Calare.
Looks like the Nationals vote is walking away from both Parties, though no rural Liberal seats with a female Member shows up as dodgy.

The headline ON number is at the higher end of recent polling, but a large RedBridge sample backs it. I think the sitting Nats MPs can certainly lean on their community links and some of them (Boyce in particular) can point to their credentials on the issues driving ON’s vote.

Interesting to see if the remaining vote gap between the Coalition and ON can be bridged over the next year or so, then we are talking about a genuine existential threat and it might encourage the Liberals to split off and more aggressively target metropolitan voters

Unless there’s a DLP style schism in the Liberal Party, they can go one of two directions:

Back to the centre and aim to win back the Teal voters.

Or

Further right to try and win the fringe vote.

Given their attitudes towards net zero, it looks like they’re taking the latter path. That’s a bad road to continue down on for them.

I can’t see Hastie losing this. The seat by seat polls are to be taken with a grain of salt. Though I reckon at current polling one nation could win a couple seats. Though I think that will dissipate once the libs get their act together. If one nation manages this many seats it would be the biggest rout ever by a minor party against a major one. It won’t last because once polls get that bad the libs will knocking down Susan Leys door to replace her. Expect a hasty challenge early 2026.

There’s been a brain drain from the bush over the last 80 years or so, the Nats pols know they need immigration, if only for GDP reasons.
Hastie is in the same boat, traditionally Liberals were the Free Trade/High Immigration Party, but Labor has gradually claimed that territory since 1967.
Positive for the Liberals is the electorate has turned very Liberal over that time, Labor victories have been skilfully engineered despite that Party’s contradictions on just about everything.

I think the Bondi Terrorist attack may propel Hastie to leadership. I sense a new culture war is coming Hastie has attacked Albanese as a weak leader who is not willing to use the phrase “Radical Islam”, he also said that non Citizen Hate preachers should be put on the first flight out of Australia. He also said Albanese was pandering to his South West Sydney voting base. He has also said that we need to dramatically “Narrow the Gate” on immigration

I don’t think Hastie’s comments will go down too well in the target groups the Coalition have to win back to recover (namely CALD minority voters as well as young, tertiary educated professionals in the inner city, teal friendly seats).

As a person of colour from an Asian/Chinese background, I and my parents understand and sympathise with the plight experienced by the Palestinian minority. Especially since my dad was a Chinese Malaysian growing up in a majority Muslim/Malay township where discrimination against the ethnic Chinese minority was prevalent.

His comments will only serve to strengthen the Coalition’s target base and maybe appeal to just the handful of outer suburban/regional target seats left (such as Hunter, Blair, Pearce and McEwen).

@ Yoh An
I think unfortunately Islamphobia is more widespread. I mentioned in another thread that UK Muslim politician Sayeeda Warsi that Islamphobia is the last form of bigory that passes the “dinner table test”. I also think it works among non teritary educated Millenials who came of age during the Howard era especially the Cronulla riots so Pearce is a perfect electorate that this will work. I also think it works in Hunter, Blair, McEwean, Hughes (Shire is notorius for Nationalism), Petrie, Forde and strengthen Liberals in Longman and Linsday.

@Nimalan. Blatant dogwhistling does not qualify you for public office. Hastie talks of “Judeo-Christian values” compared to “Radical Islam”. Need I remind people that these so-called values include homophobia, transphobia, and not too far back, slavery and bondage as well. Where was Hastie calling out against ‘radical Christianity’ when a white Aussie murdered 50+ Muslims in Christchurch? This isn’t just hypocrisy, it’s racism/

Fair points, the Bondi shooting event could be like the Cronulla Riots post 9/11 and help the Coalition to win a ‘national security’ argument which will appeal to most of the swing districts they lost in 2025.

However, it won’t work much for the other seats lost in 2022 (places such as Bennelong, Reid, Chisholm and Swan). The net effect could be just to force Labor back to minority status (70-75 seats) with more work required to secure a majority in their own right.

@ Blast2095
I did not say he will win the election nor did I endorse him but i think he appeals to the Liberals base and segments of Anglo Australia who are Nationalistic. Sussan Ley also used the word Radical Islam yesterday she was probably pressured to. Tony Abbott said that the Bondi Shooter (Father) was living in Hotel Australia and not participating in Team Australia.
I think when he used South West Sydney he meant Muslims not Vietnamese/Cambodians in Cabramatta nor Anglo Australian Families in Camden/Wollondily.

While Andrew Hastie might quell the One Nation vote but he’ll be electoral poison in particular to metro Melbourne, either way I’m expecting him to roll Sussan Ley in 2026.

@ SpaceFish
I think there parts of Metro Melbourne where Hastie will appeal including suburbs such as
1. Warranwood
2. Ringwood North
3. Croydon Hills
4. Kilsyth
5. Lillydale-Electorate of Casey
6. Sunbury/Bacchus Marsh
7. Parts of Dunkley such as Carrum Downs, Langwarrin
8. Berwick/Beaconsfield

A lot of these are very Anglo areas and often seen as Nationalistic

I wonder how would Liberals now view their previous attempt to repeal 18C when Abbott was in government?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-06/government-backtracks-on-racial-discrimination-act-changes/5650030

Marh, I don’t think the 18C repeal will do the Coalition many favours today. Given that their argument is about strengthening ‘hate speech’ laws to reduce the level of antisemitism in society, repealing section 18C will probably do the opposite and embolden more attacks from hardcore Islamists.

@nimalan i think it will be the final nail in susan leys leadership i reckon she was going down anyway. She was gven a gift by Anika Wells and other labor members and gave a half hearted assault on their behaviour (probably because of her own history) now she has to prosecute the argument on holding someone accountable and presenting a national securiyt and immigration argument. if she cant do that she will be booted.

@yoh we all sympathise with the plight of the palestinian people, however they are victims of their own hatreds towards the jewish state and population. they are the ones who voted in HAMAS to power and it was HAMAS that attacked Israel on OCt 7 and HAMAS that uses the palestinian people as human shields by building their terrorist infrastructre in densly populated areas. and use hospitals, schools and mosques for weapons cahces, terrorist bases and to launch their attacks on Israel. the rules of war make it so these are no longer civilian targets but military targets. Israel For the most part is targeting military sites. (il acknowledge there may be some intentional retaliation but that happens in every war) Israel does its best to avoid civilian casualties. The fact of the matter is Palestine is not a country. ISrael offered them a 2 state soltion many times but they rejected it because they want a 1 state solution where they get verything and the ISraelis are driven into the sea and exterminated. Gaza and the West bank were the spoils of war, territory taken after Egypt, Jordan, Syria tried to wipe them out and lost. therefore it is iraeli territory. the palestinians couls have easily inegrated into Israeli society but they choose to try and kill innocent people. If they have a problem with the government they should fight militray targets.

I think most CALD voters outside the muslim/arab voting blocks would welcome these laws. the same reason they voted against the Voice and the same reason they supported the attemt to stop anitsemitism because what happens when they are done with the Jews? they will come for the other minorities they dislike. we saw it in the middle east during the ISIS era. all ethnic minorities were subjected to war crimes by ISIS forces. IF we allow them to kill Jews today who will they target tomorrow? most minorities have come here to seek a life of peace. because they were targeted in their homeland. and they understand the plight of the jewish people.

If Islamaphobia is being afriad of muslims and islam we have seen time and again all over the world these fears are well placed. sure their may be prejudic against them but they dont have to have armed secrity outside their schools, they dont have to have guards outside their places of worhsip, they dont need security at comunity events. when was the last time muslims were afraid to walk the streets or send their kids to public schools and universities or told them not to wear their attire for fear of eing attacked. these people are being blamed and targeted because some people have a beef with the jewish govt in israel. If Israel did not do what it di and defend itself do you think their muslim neighbours would just let them be? No they would be exerminated without mercy. Their are dozens of Muslims nations these people can go and live in but only one Jewish nation. All throughout history time and again people have done their best to try and exterminate them. One of the Bondi Victims was a holocaust survivor. he survived hitler only to be killed in a country he though was safe.

But our elected leaders espeially those on the left are blind to this because they dont want to upset certain groups and voting blocks. it wasnt their friends, neighbours and family that were killed on Sunday. Albo was all to happy to go and pose with Ahmed in his hospital bed but he wont face the families of the dead or those who survived or attend any of the funerals. The reaction towards the government was that they werent welcome because they know these people are responsible. If people have a problem with the governmant in Israel they can go and fight them. You dont see any Ukranians taking up arms against the Russian civilian population across the world do you? It all comes down to hatred of a race that has existed for millenia.

@Nimalan,
I don’t think he’ll cut through in Ringwood there are a lot more tertiary educated voters that have moved in the area it’s actually become a lot more diverse. Both Croydon Hills and Warranwood are quite affluent so I don’t think there he’ll be liked through there either. I do agree with Lilydale and maybe places like Rowville or Morwell.

Abbott caved quickly once he’d won the election, it won’t work twice.
Labor, Ley, the MSM are on the same page, further restrict Freedom of Speech, more Gun Laws, something … something … immigrant vetting, that’s it.
Hanson and Barnaby are adjacent, Crisafulli is the only one who’s said the solution isn’t more Gun Laws.
I’d expect Hastie to fall into line, his background says he isn’t a Populist, but you never know.

@ John
honestly no one cares about Anika Wells given What happend on Bondi Beach is much more serious and i am more outraged/angry/shattered about that than her expenses.

It’s worth noting that Hastie’s comments on variety of things will not play out well throughout metro Melbourne.

@ SpaceFish
i said Ringwood North not Ringwood and certainly not Mitcham and Blackburn. I think affluent whites who are not Unversity educated for example some Tradies/Real Estate agents etc. I think Nationalism and a perception that the Anglo-Celtic Culture should be the default culture and that minorities should express gratituide.

@ Nimalan,
Sorry I missed that. I agree that there are tradies throughout the area and that part of Maroondah is much more established but I don’t think it will enough to deliver Hastie the results he’d be look for to win back critical seats through Victoria.

@ SpaceFish
Yeah i have often seen those sort of Rhetoric myself . I agree that those areas are more Established than Pearce. Mernda-Doreen in McEwean also has a lot of tradies.

@nimalan im agreed im simply stating her leadership was going down the toilet long before this happened. anything but a A+ on this and shes done. someone has to be held accountable for the security failings. as poined out the 3 most repsonsible people are
Mike Burgess – ASIO
Albanese – PM
and to a lesser extent the NSW Police Commissioner. il give him a little leeway since hes ony been on the job less then 3 months. but somebody failed.

@gympie i agree more gun laws are not the problem all your doing is taking guns off law abiding citizens. i was at broadmeadows central last friday and witnessed a machete fight inside. I was inside a store which was locked pretty quick. so much for the machete ban…….. Common sense laws like banning non-citizens and people with suspected links to radical groups from havin access to guns. i mean they both travlled to a wel known isis hotspot and yet he still hed a gun license and had access to guns. i mean WTF.

you hear reports of police in WA taking guns off law abiding citizens who are in lawful possesion of firearms having ther guns seized because some nut job in victoria killed 2 cops and they were basically deemed undesirable gun owners. if nsw police had applied the same logic this would never have happened.

and finally where were the NSW police at the event? Hiding. THey should have had tactical response officers present at such a high risk event who could have neutralised the threat before it began. the Bondi poilice station is literally a 2 minute walk. yet how long did it take for them to respond? instead a 69 pensioner and his wife tried to stop the attack and got shot at point blank range after initially disarming the father of his first weapon. then ahmed disarmed him again. 1 guy threw a brick at him. yet still no cops. it doesnt matter if they were waiting for backup or waiting in the donut shop. they should have engaged the gunman and drawn fire away from civilians. it doesnt matter they only had handguns. Boris Gurman had nothing but the will to act. Ahmed and the brick thrower werent waiting for backup.

If Hastie’s promotion to leader would have the simultaneous effect of reversing the One Nation surge on the right AND sending even more votes from LNP to Labor in the centre, bring it on I say. What a great outcome.

i dont see the correlation. One Nation gets most of their support from the Libs. how could it get any worse then it is currently? Libs atm would lose seats to labor and one nation. Hastie as leader would probably help in Pearce Moore and Bullwinkel at the very least. and reverse and one naton gains.

One Nation draw support from fringe National Party voters and fringe Labor voters, that’s always been the situation.
It’s obvious now there’s a huge problem with AntiSemitism in Australia, yet Albanese has had a Report on AntiSemitism sitting on his desk for 2 months now and is hiding from scrutiny.
How Labor end up handling this is anyone’s guess, but the Albanese method isn’t working.
Sussan Ley is late to the party again here, but John Howard nailed it in a Ch. 9 interview, despite being 86 years old. and retired 18 years.

A broader debate on the rise of antisemitism, and combating that, is entirely valid.

However, claiming that a terror attack carried out by two ISIS linked attackers, who had been on watchlists and amassing weapons since at least the 2010s, would not have carried out this attack if it wasn’t for that broader rise in antisemitism is disingenuous and I think it’s that long bow being drawn that is rightly causing backlash against the Liberals politicising the issue.

They could still focus on the antisemitic aspect of the crime, and combating antisemitism, without making such an irresponsible claim that Anthony Albanese is personally responsible because they are saying they are 100% certain, beyond any doubt, that these two ISIS linked attackers would never have considered carrying out this crime if it wasn’t for the post-2023 rise in antisemitism. That is a pretty wild claim to make.

@gympie there ahve been calls from certain parts for him to return. Though that wont be happening.

@trent there is no doubt in there minds because the government is trying to appease both sides of the argument to look after its own electoral interests they cant be seen being too soft because of community expaectations but dont want to upset the muslim voting blocks that several key labor ministers rely on to stay in ffice. they have done a half hearted approach and have let the muslim community down. if it were a bunch of right wing extremeists threatening the muslim community they would be having weekly arrests. there would be police at every muslim community event making sure no one even turned up with an israeli flag.

jewish community down i should say.

Hastie says the immigration gate has to be narrowed, Albanese has had his AntiSemitis report gathering dust on his desk for 2 months. won’t appear in public.
Voters draw their own conclusions. Scott Morrison was rejected, but it wasn’t because he didn’t show up. Now the boot is on the other foot, Albanese can’t admit he made a mistake.

i think they will need to demolish that footbridge too.

It’s not a matter of letting the Jewish community down as it is letting Australia down.
Jewish community leaders are on the same page as Labor, draconian gun bans, draconian restrictions on Freedom of Speech and something nebulous about immigration vetting.
The bottom line is 16 people shot dead and 42 injured at a Jewish holiday picnic.
Australia doesn’t want that, but Albanese, Labor, Hanson and some of the Liberal leaders want to avoid the underlying issue.

the only thing needed here is to ban non citizens and anyone with links to extremist groups to have access to guns. there is no need to punish everyone. do yo really think the criminals and people with nefarious intent are gonna hand i their guns? look how well thats worked with the machete ban in victoria. jesus you can even by a kitchen knife a t woolworths and coles anymore.

@John, I don’t disagree with you but my point is more about the direct connection between the broader “letting down the community” regarding the rise in antisemitism and the specific attack in Bondi.

To claim that the PM has “blood on his hands” (direct quote) and is “personally responsible” (direct quote) for those 15 specific deaths, is to say that the attack would never have happened if not for the rise in antisemitism since 2023.

Again, I’m not disputing anything regarding doing more about that rise in antisemitism, but based on what we know about the attackers – two ISIS linked terrorists who had been on watchlists and amassing weapons since the 2010s – it is a VERY tenuous claim to say that this couldn’t possibly have happened if not for the rise in antisemitism. Their motives could very well have been completely irrelevant to that as they were already radicalised and preparing for violence long before 2023.

the government is responsible for the protection of the people that is the first and only duty of government. but this government is more concerned with its own electoral survival and its own political agenda. its not there to tell us what kind of electricity generation we should have. its not there to tell us who owns what piece of land on the other side of the world. its not there to decide what we can and cannot own. government policies or lack thereof to protect those people contributed to those deaths. it happened on their watch.

The bottom line is John Howard could make a hard decision and Albanese can’t. Of course Kevin Rudd, Gillard, Abbott and Morrison couldn’t make hared decisions either, but Albanese is in the hot seat now.
Hastie is entirely correct, it’s not a guns issue, it’s an Immigration issue.
That one of the shooters had a licence could mean the system discriminates against honest people, it could mean he was a security guard [since he had a licenced handgun] and the longarm licence was just a tick and flick, since handgun licencing has always been the law in Australia, and much harder to obtain.
The obvious solution there is to disqualify Handgun licence holders by reason of security guard occupation from applying for a longarm licence.

Facts would help – 1/ Labor has been working with Segal on implementation since the report was released – confirmed by her. 2/ None of her recommendations if implemented would have stopped Sunday’s carnage 3/ If there was a ‘silver bullet’ strategy to prevent radicalisation and fanaticism it would have been used across the globe long before now, 4/The failure of the Right to distinguish between Jews and Israel has since October 7th caused predictable outrage, often not distinguished 5/ Liberal critics of Albanese fail to acknowledge the fact that the failures to identify the precursors to these terrorists’ actions happened on their watch. 6/ Labor has legislated a number of hate speech/ hate symbol prohibitions.

@gympie the solution s simple non citizens and people with radical links be barraed from obtaining or having access to firearms. meaning if you are linked to any radical groups your cannot get access to them through family members etc. non citizens should not be in possession of firearms.

@ John
I was watching Hastie and i think he asked a very good question which I appreciate why didnt the NSW Police Officers at the Hannukah by Sea event have Long Range Guns they were limited to Pistols. This is question that needs to be answered.

@nimalan i agree with the assesment that they should have them on hand albeit nearby in the cars. having cops walking around with machine guns at the beach or even at the airport does not make people feel safe. id argue it makes them feel less safe. this isnt the middle east. or a major airport like heathrow. the cops were reportedly hiding. the police station is literally a 2 minute walk from the beach. the cops could have been there in under 5 minutes and neutralised the threat. the cops at the beach should have been engaging the attackers and drawing their fire away from innocent bystanders. obviously this wouldnt have saved Boris and Sofia Gurman but there shouldnt hav been 15 victims.

@Nimalan
The answer is they’re not trained to use longarms and they couldn’t anyway because of the risk to bystanders.
Even police snipers have spotters.
In Israel, which has draconian gun laws, there are soldiers with machine guns walking around everywhere in the cities.
Hastie was talking about narrowing the immigration gate yesterday, today he’s talking guns like all the rest.
His leadership on the issue didn’t even last 2 days.

@gympie tahts because the threat in sirael is very real terrorists are just looking for a soft target to hit. in australia we are far from that.

they are defeinately trained to use the and if theyre not thats a failing of NSW Police and someone should be sacked. police should prepared for any scenario.

@john
Well, we’re not far from that at all and the Gun Laws in Israel are stricter than in Australia.
Australian Police can’t just go firing rifles in a crowde of 1,000 people, that’s just nuts.
However, undercover police shoulda been at an event this size.

the crowd were nowhere near the gunmen. there were police at this event they were reportedly hiding

To anyone please stop making right wing bullshit about immigration right now, just look at all the good immigrants and Ahmed

Hastie was saying it’s an immigration issue yesterday, he’s no right winger.
The reality is a massacre was committed based on Race alone. Those people and those that agree with them should never have been allowed as immigrants or on visas.
No immigration from countries where the culture includes the right to kill others for a variety of reasons would go a long way toward preventing more massacres, because whenever you need the police right now, they’re 15 minutes away.

@Gympie, Hastie is on the right wing of the Liberal Party.