Federal election prediction thread

Taylor is very smart but he shouldn’t be in politics. He’s a bit like your bloke in Parramatta patreon. Albo won’t let him anywhere near the front bench. But Albo will be replaced next term for sure.

Labor minority government but with enough seats and pathways to pass bills that it basically doesn’t matter. Clear 2nd term for Albo.

Liberals improve their vote over all and have signs of strength in outer suburban seats that could form the basis of the next election win. Dutton will over perform the polls. But they don’t win enough seats out of it to offset Labor gains (thinking Sturt, Moore and Leichhardt), the seats they lost in 2022 get sophomore surges that keep them out, and they lose even more seats to independents. Dutton clearly “loses” the election (but I think he’ll hang on in Dickson).

Greens to win MacNamara, Richmond and Wills and hold their others, and Cunningham, Newcastle and Fraser join the “Labor vs Green seat” club. New teal gains. The story of the election will be the trend of the 2022 election continues, but Labor will do well enough that they can downplay any sense the Greens and teals have the whip hand (probably by quickly securing confidence and supply from conservative crossbenchers).

Very long post counts in a few seats over exclusion order (thinking MacNamara, Bean, Fremantle, Monash, Calare, Grey, Riverina), depending on who the AEC chooses for the election night 2PP (E.g. if they model Liberal vs Greens for MacNamara they can rule out a Liberal win on election night). To make one outlandish prediction, I think Labor will initially look like they lost Bean or Fremantle to independents because of a losing 2PP and enough evidence to suggest that will be the exclusion order, but then the post count will reveal that Price/Hulett don’t make the top 2 thanks to surprisingly strong Green->Labor preference flows and the post count working against them (Green and Liberal postal/absents preferencing Labor over the independent even more, and non incumbent independents performing poorly in those categories generally). This will make national news if it’s the difference between Labor majority or minority, although again I think we’ll know by the end of election night that Albo is getting a 2nd term.

My wild card picks for the Senate
QLD – Gerard Rennick, though I think Malcolm Roberts is more likely
SA – Rex Patrick (JLN)
TAS – Lee Hanson, if not Jacqui Lambie
VIC – Bernie Finn (FF) or Fiona Patten (LC)

@Votante

Are you tipping Fiona over a Green senator or over the second Labor senator? Victoria would have to be 57% combined Labor/Greens senate vote to get a fourth progressive in there.

Unfortunate, as Fiona would be great value in Canberra.

Vic senators returned tonight will be Hume and Paterson for the Libs, Raff Ciccone and Walsh for Labor, plus Steph Hodgkins-May for the Greens.

So there’s really only one seat in question, which most likely will go to Kyle Hoppit from the Libs.

I would guess next most likely might actually be Warren Pickering from ON, or maybe that’s just because they’ve pumped a ton of money into signage for him. I suspect more likely him than Finn at any rate.

But I guess there’s an outside chance for Fiona as although she’s a progressive, she isn’t a “left” candidate per se, and will pick up votes that the Greens / Animal Justice / Jordan van der Lamb won’t.

DB you realise most of the unionised jobs in this country are the ones that are, debatably, the hardest ones. Things like builders and nurses. I don’t know what you mean that because Labor takes people from the unions, they don’t have real jobs???

Expat Combined Labor/Greens/LC vote is slightly different, as we saw in the QLD election LC, while a progressive party, doesn’t necessarily only attract progressive voters, or those who’ll preference Greens/Labor next. I agree though that it’s unlikely they get a seat off anyone.

@ Votante, i dont think a 4-2 Left right split is possible in Victoria so LC cannot win in 2025, 2022 or 2010 were the best chances. A right wing minor party or the LNP will win the 3 right wing seat.
SA or WA are the best chances for a 4-2 Left/Right Split

Expat, Nimalan
You made some good points. I still think a minor right wing party will get a senate spot in Victoria, if not the third LNP senate candidate. I thought Patten would have a slight chance due to messy preference flow arrangements on the right flank, whilst the Greens and Labor have preferenced her.

Possibly Votante but a lower Left wing vote in Vic will make it harder so less surplus ALP/GRN vote to send to elect her. In QLD i think it will be a 3-3 Left/Right Split. It is the same problem Fiona Patten faced in 2022 there was less of a Labor surplus in the Northern Metro and Cooker preferences elected DLP instead.

Final prediction, don’t have too much of a feeling in the individual ALP v COA races.
ALP: 74
COA: 53
GRN: 5 (+Wills, +Macnamara, -Brisbane)
OTH: 18 (+Monash, +Wannon, +Bradfield, +Cowper, +Calare)

And maybe one other unexpected independent (flinders, fremantle, watson etc.)

I’d say 75 gov, 50s opp, 20 for crossbenchers in terms of seats, and of course crossbenchers in power in the senate

I don’t see anyone getting a majority to be honest. Labor’s been terrible, the Coalition just hasn’t been in touch enough, though Labor is also out of touch.

Hopefully we get a new PM because it’s harder under Labor unlike what leftist social media users may say. Again if the Coalition goes backwards and Labor goes forwards then if Dutton resigns he is simply foolish.

NP the only possible new PM is Dutton, unless he loses his seat but the libs still win, in which case someone even less competent. If coalition goes backward, Dutton pretty much has no choice but to resign, how is that foolish?

Thanks for all the wonderful predictions. It really is hard to pick some (I have no idea where to put Sturt). So take them all with a grain of salt (I’ve taken notional seats as the current party):
SA – Sturt LIB>ALP
TAS – Lyons ALP>LIB
VIC – Aston ALP>LIB, Kooyong IND>LIB, Macnamara ALP>GRN, Menzies ALP>LIB, Wannon LIB>IND (tough to call Monash, was leaning toward LIB gain, but have left it as IND Retain)
NT – Lingiari ALP>CLP (Think Solomon will just hold on to ALP, despite the NT election results last year.)
WA – Moore IND>LIB (could go ALP but not expecting IND to retain – for those who love puns, the thread on this seat is Goodenough, click on the thread for Moore) Thought Hastie was in trouble in Canning but expect to hold on.
ACT – No Changes
QLD – Brisbane GRN>LIB, Moreton ALP>LIB (my wildcard for the night) Leichhardt was hard to pick but with LNP swing in QLD, think they’ll hold on.
NSW – Bennelong LIB>ALP, Bradfield LIB>IND, (Calare as IND Retain), Gilmore ALP>LIB, Robertson ALP>LIB (to finally loose bellwhether status) **Hunter ALP>TOP (**just kidding) I had considered a western sydney seat to fall to a mulism independent… don’t think it’ll happen this cycle but very likely in 2028.

Final Prediction:
ALP 72 (Adelaide, Ballarat, Barton, Bean, Bendigo, Bennelong, Blair, Blaxland, Boothby, Brand, Bruce, Bullwinkel, Burt, Calwell, Canberra, Chifley, Chisholm, Cooper, Corangamite, Corio, Cowan, Cunningham, Dobell, Dunkley, Eden-Monaro, Fenner, Franklin, Fraser, Fremantle, Gellibrand, Gorton, Grayndler, Greenway, Hasluck, Hawke, Hindmarsh, Holt, Hotham, Hunter, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Kingsford Smith, Kingston, Lalor, Lilley, Macarthur, Macquarie, Makin, Maribyrnong, McEwen, McMahon, Newcastle, Oxley, Parramatta, Paterson, Pearce, Perth, Rankin, Reid, Richmond, Scullin, Shortland, Solomon, Spence, Sturt, Swan, Sydney, Tangey, Watson, Werriwa, Whitlam, Wills)

LNP 60 (Aston, Banks, Barker, Bass, Berowra, Bonner, Bowman, Braddon, Brisbane, Canning, Casey, Capricornia, Cook, Cowper, Dawson, Deakin, Dickson, Durack, Fadden, Fairfax, Farrer, Fisher, Flinders, Flynn, Forde, Forrest, Gilmore, Gippsland, Grey, Groom, Herbert, Hinkler, Hughes, Hume, Kooyong, La Trobe, Leichhardt, Lindsay, Lingiari, Longman, Lyne, Lyons, Mallee, Maranoa, McPherson, Menzies, Mitchell, Moncrieff, Moore, Moreton, New England, Nicholls, O’Connor, Page, Parkes, Petrie, Riverina, Roberston, Wide Bay, Wright)

GRN 4 (Griffith, Macnamara, Melbourne, Ryan)
IND 12 (Bradfield, Calare, Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Mackellar, Monash, Wannon, Warringah, Wentworth)
KAP 1 (Kennedy)
CA 1 (Mayo)

Can’t be harder under Labor for everyone NP, otherwise we’ll be decking the halls for a Dutton coronation on the lawns of Kirribilli House right about now.

Under Labor my power bill has gone into credit, so I’m doing alright. I acknowledge it’s not the same for everyone.

The other thing is, if Dutton loses and stays on, he’s essentially asking the Liberal Party to commit to him for at least the next nine years (three in opposition plus two terms in government). I doubt he has the ticker to stick around for that long. No doubt the talking heads in the right wing news stratosphere will want him to stick around and lurch the party even further off-centre.

FWIW I have also had a few months this year with a negative power bill. I make more power than I use, so despite the pittance you get paid for selling it to the grid, my normal bill for the month is usually about $40 of usage, minus $20-30 for selling excess to the grid, plus the $32 or so to be connected. So about $50 for the bill, but if I’m getting the bill relief means I have a $25 net credit…

(Plus a gas bill of zero).

I want to clarify what I meant to say. @Clarinet of Communists and @Real Talk, I meant to say if Dutton goes backwards he has to resign and if he DOESN’T he is foolish. It’d be like if you get your team relegated and don’t get sacked as manager.

Thanks NP, I think we understood what you meant; just a slip of the fingers while typing, possibly. It’s a shame there’s no edit button here but it makes reading interesting. 🙂

@Real Talk makes for some odd mistakes though.

Who do we think will be the next Liberal leader after the election?

Greens gain: Wills, Richmond
Lab/Grn too close: Macnamara, Brisbane
Greens retain: Melb, Griffith, Ryan but with a bit of a fright in all three

Labor gain: Sturt, Leichhardt
IND gain: Wannon, Cowper, Fremantle, Franklin
Lib gain: Aston, Menzies, Lingiari, Paterson, plus a fright for Labor in Solomon

I’m aware that’s a bit incoherent but here we are 🙂

Here is my Prediction:

– ALP 74 to 75 (Gains Sturt from LIBS, Brisbane from Greens and Bullwinkle 75 if they retain Richmond)
– L/NP 58 to 60 (Gains Patterson, McEwen, Aston, Calare and Gilmore, Could Pick up Ryan or Hold Bradfield)
– Greens 4 to 6 (Hold Melbourne and Griffith, Gain Wilis and Richmond, Could Lose Ryan)
– Teals 7 to 8- (Hold all they have and gain Cowper and maybe Bradfield)
– Others – Katter, Haines, Wilkie, Sharkie and Dai Le

Might as well throw mine in. (Changes compared to 2022, Katter and Sharkie counted as indies.)

Labor 79 (+2)
Lib/Nat 52 (-6)
Green 5 (+1)
Ind 14 (+2)

Labor gains: Bullwinkel (new), Moore, Sturt, Leichhardt, Brisbane (from Greens); lose Higgins (abolished).

Lib / Nat gains: *sad trombone sfx*

Green gains: Wills and Macnamara (from Labor)

Ind gains: Bradfield, Cowper, Wannon (from Lib / Nat), while losing North Sydney (abolished).

In the senate: Labor get a third up in WA again, with One Nation close behind and Lib #3 in the dust. Also possible in SA.

The delicious maraschino cherry on top: Labor win the Dickson by-election later this year caused by Dutton slinking off into the sunset.

~~~~~~~

I would’ve tipped Ind gain in Calare and Monash if there was just one, but Gee/Hook and Broadbent/Leonard will get in each other’s way so I’ve left them as Lib/Nat retain. Brisbane I’m thinking the Greens will go up on primary vote but Labor up more, but I could be wrong there. No idea about Richmond, but Justine Elliot’s been an MP for 20 years so she can have that. Wills for the Greens because (a) redistribution, (b) high-profile candidate and (c) the Vic Greens seem to have stopped being openly dysfunctional (over trans issues). Macnamara is harder to pick than a broken nose, so I’ll just follow Trent on that one. Moore and Sturt are due to the uselessness of the WA and SA Libs. Leichhardt due to Warren Entsch retiring.

Bonus seats if Labor do extra well: Canning, Braddon, Banks, the pinata of suburban Brisbane seats (Longman, Petrie, Bonner, *gasp* Dickson). Maybe Aston as a by-election retain, although I’m not tipping any other Labor gains in Vic.

Non-standard 2cp pairs: ALP/Grn in Perth, Fraser, Newcastle and Cunningham; ALP/ON in Hunter and Spence.

I’ll be keeping an eye on Fremantle and Casey as well – Kate Hulett and Claire Ferres Miles may do well.

Next Liberal leader I think, will be either Taylor or Hastie. Ley as an outside chance. For Labor I’d say Chalmers

NP, Dutton may yet wake up tomorrow morning with a valid quote for curtains at Kirribilli House in his inbox.

However, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the next Liberal prime minister is not yet in parliament, or at least an extremely junior member.

When Rudd lost, future PM Albanese was his deputy but lost a leadership ballot.

When Howard lost, future PM Abbott was Health minister and didnt run for the leadership. Turnbull had been minister for just a year, and Morrison had just been newly-elected.

When Keating lost, future PMs Rudd and Gillard weren’t even in parliament.

The next Liberal leader might be Taylor, Ley or Hastie, but the next Liberal PM could well be Keith Wolahan or Aaron Violi, for all we know.

Maybe let’s wait till Tommorow and get through tonight first before specularting who is the next liberal leader

My two cents:

Labor: 78 (gain Bennelong, Leichhardt, Brisbane, Moore and Sturt; lose Gilmore, Aston, Menzies, Wills and Macnamara)
Coalition: 53 (gain Gilmore, Aston, Monash and Menzies; lose Bennelong, Leichhardt, Sturt, Bradfield and Wannon)
Greens: 5 (gain Wills and Macnamara, lose Brisbane)
Independents/other: 14 (gain Bradfield and Wannon; lose Monash, North Sydney [abolished] and Moore)

If NSW LIberals do as poorly as expected, why should Taylor be rewarded?
Same goes for Hastie and Western Australia.
I’d say Victoria and Qld will decide who the next leader is.
If they end up in the 40s, say 47, but the National Party vote holds up and the LNP hold on in Qld,which is entirely plausible, imo, the numbers would be 17 Nationals, 15 Qld Liberals, 15 liberals from the other 5 states and 2 Territories.
That would justify knockin’ the spavined old beast on the head and founding a new Party, imo.

As I’ve pointed out elsewhere, Hastie is 42. He’s five years younger than Keith Wolahan. Why would he want the leadership right now?

Holding him responsible for the current WA Liberal malaise would also not make much sense, as his argument (aim for the middle and working class suburbs) has been the opposite of what a lot of the old heads in WA have been doing. Dutton’s been caught in the middle of the two sides, because some want to appeal to the Teal electorates and others want to try and replace Labor in the outer suburbs.

A shame the site was down throughout election night. But wow. While I had a feeling Labor was going to win the election one way or another, I didn’t expect this kind of thumping. It’s not just that the Coalition lost the election, and that Dutton lost his seat, but a whole swathe of Liberal talent has been wiped out.

This election has reinforced my fundamental belief that the liberal and national party need to re-split. The LNP pulls the liberal party too far to the right (especially socially), which makes it not only uncompetitive in Victoria but also even in Greater Brisbane. I say this as a late 20’s man who has drifted from the Turnbull wing of the liberals to labor.

this election has reinforced my fundamental belief that predictions by commentators on here are as accurate as horoscopes

You must admit though Bazza, it’s rather funny reading back on old threads now (old as in, before Saturday).