10:14 – So is it over? I suspect it is, but I won’t call the result tonight.
There are 77 declaration vote envelopes, and there could be as many as 262 potential postal votes, although undoubtedly some of those postal votes will not be returned.
Assuming there are 300 votes remaining, the Greens would need close to three-quarters of the remaining vote to win. It’s hard to see that happening.
But I should note that all of the votes counted tonight will need to be counted again as the check count, when the counters are fresh. It is not unheard of that a bundle of 50 votes is found in the wrong pile. If such an error was to be found, the Labor lead could be put in some danger. I don’t expect such an error, but it will just take a few days for that possibility to be ruled out.
So my call is that Labor has likely won the Nightcliff by-election narrowly, pending further checks and counting of the last few votes.
And with that call, I’m closing this liveblog for tonight.
10:09 – The pre-poll 2CP has been published. Labor defeated the Greens by 155 votes, which puts Labor 141 votes ahead of the Greens overall.
9:35 – I’ve heard from multiple sources that the counting of the 2CP for the pre-poll booth has concluded but for some reason the official figure has not been reported, and I will wait for that before giving my thoughts.
8:12 – And the 2CP for Urban Voting Darwin has come in, with Labor winning 62.5%. This increased the Labor preference flow slightly more.
8:11 – If you apply the 61% preference flow to Labor to the rest of the votes yet to report a 2CP, it produces a Labor win with 51.8%. I would say Labor are now the favourites, but it’s not over. The pre-poll preference flows may not be as strong as on election day.
8:06 – The pre-poll primary vote has now reported. The Greens lead on 32%, with the ALP on 29%.
8:00 – Another vote category has reported primary votes – ‘Urban Voting Darwin’ – it’s a pretty small batch of 32 votes. Labor on 31.3%, the Greens on 28.1%.
7:50 – The 2CP vote has come in from Nightcliff HS, and the Greens have only narrowly won, with 50.6% of the 2CP. That’s a swing of 4.2% to Labor.
Labor gained 62.3% of preferences at the election day booth. This race looks very close.
Currently the Greens lead by 22 votes.
7:46 – So with a change in the mixture of primary votes, the swings on primary vote may not be reflected in the final preference count. The Greens gained a 2CP swing of 1.8% on the postal vote, but if the preference split the same way they’d have a small swing against them at Nightcliff HS. In 2024, the Greens did better on election day than at the pre-poll booths.
7:43 – It should be noted that in 2024 there was an independent, Mililma May, who polled 19.2% and whose preferences strongly favoured the Greens. While there is another prominent independent, Phil Scott, running this time, it would not be surprising if May’s absence increased the Greens primary vote but also meant the Greens gain a much smaller share of preferences than they did with May in the race. This seems to be happening.
7:39 – There were 52 postal votes that were cast for the CLP or the independent: Labor gained 28 of those 52 votes, which is 53.8% of preferences.
7:35 – We have 2CP count from the postal vote, with the Greens winning 53.8%.
7:31 – That’s a swing of 12.7% to the Greens at Nightcliff HS and 15.2% on the postals. A good start from the party. Apparently the NTEC is conducting a Greens-Labor preference count tonight, which looks like the right call.
7:28 – We have the first results, with 160 postal votes and 907 votes at Nightcliff HS published.
Greens candidate Suki Dorras-Walker is leading on 37.6%, with Labor’s Ed Smelt on 27.9%, the CLP’s Anjan Paudel on 17.8%, and independent Phil Scott on 16.7%.
6:32 – I’m on deck now, but we have no results yet.
The NTEC has reported on the number of votes recorded, which gives us a sense of scale for tonight. There are about 4,000 votes.
907 eligible voters in the Division of Nightcliff cast their vote today at the election day voting centre located at Nightcliff High School.
During the early voting period 2,657 votes have been cast at the early voting centre or mobile voting service. 441 postal votes have been issued.
6:00 – Polls have now closed in the by-election for the Northern Territory Assembly seat of Nightcliff.
Nightcliff covers parts of the northern suburbs of Darwin. There was just one election-day booth today, along with one pre-poll booth. So I would expect it will take some time to count these two booths, along with other results types, but when results come in they will be quite complete quite quickly.
If you want something to read while waiting for some results, you can check out my by-election guide.
I’ve been out this afternoon at an AFL game in Sydney but I’m hoping to begin tracking results around 6:30pm Darwin time (8pm Sydney time).
It wasn’t that long ago when people were talking about the Greens never having lost a seat they’d won at a general election, and now we have South Brisbane, Griffith, Brisbane, Melbourne and now this, most likely.