Federal election prediction thread

Labor minority by 2

I reckon we’re going to see a status quo election, with very few seats changing hands, maybe only a dozen or so. However, this status quo will mask a number of individual seat swings that will only be realised in 2028.

We’ve seen this quite recently, actually. Despite the polls, 2019 was a status quo election. Only 8 seats changed hands. But there were swings in seats across the country. The list of marginal seats changed quite a bit, and many of these flipped in 2022.

That’s what I think we’ll see this time. The coalition won’t break through the outer suburbs tomorrow, but they’ll turn a whole bunch of Labor heartland seats marginal. When they decide to pick a leader who doesn’t sleep in a coffin at the sky news studios and sizzle under the light of an election campaign, all these seats will flip at once.

Ok, Im throwing my prediction out there:

ALP gain Bonner, Braddon, Bullwinkel, Deakin, Menzies, Sturt.
Libs gain Aston, Bennelong, Moore.
Greens gain Macmanara.
Ind gain Bradfield
Ind retains/gains Monash, but not sure which.
There will be at least one surprise that no one sees coming.

Lib/LNP to win a couple of seats from Labor – but to lose more to Labor and others. Overall 2PP swing to Labor with some swings to Lib/LNP/Nat is some safe Labor seats – but not changing

Greens to end up with about 4 seats – maybe losing 1 in Brisbane but picking up 1 elsewhere

Teals/IND to hold all seats (maybe 1 is dropped) and pick up at least 4 more

Tas and NT could finish anywhere

ON to pick up a few extra senators with LC going close in a few states. Rennick to take a senate spot in QLD at the expense of ON or LNP

Guestimate of final seat count
ALP 70 – 80
Lib/LNP/Nat 50 – 60
Green 4
Others 13 – 16

I have got no predictions, but I will be interested in the following.

My electorate of Moreton just to see how the Greens candidate goes. This is one seat the Greens have been focusing on for some time and they generally get around 15-20% of the vote in most state and federal elections. Retiring long term Labor member and 6 right side candidates sitting and only Labor and the Greens could be considered left. Given Perrett only got 37% of FPV and relied on Green preferences to get him over the line in 22, there could be enough spillage to make this close, or even tip the Greens into 1st place depending on preference flows (assuming the right side put Greens ahead of Labor). Lots of Greens corn-flutes up around my area, but this just may be a sign of a good ground game. The Greens candidate is certainly not trying to hide her true identity with the Watermelon earrings.

The 3 Brisbane Greens seats. I get the feeling Max is in trouble, which would be a big blow to him and the party.

Haven’t heard much about Fowler, but it might be in play.

Otherwise all the optics and chatter seems to be about the LNP campaign falling apart.

For the greens 4 lower house seats:

Melbourne
Wills
Griffith and one more from
Ryan, Brisbane or Richmond.

Just saw this thread right after posting my prediction. I’ll mostly copy and paste here then.

Starting off on notional margins (Lib Bennelong, ALP Menzies, ALP Aston):

Coalition gain: Aston, Menzies
Labor gain: Sturt, Bennelong, Moore
Greens gain: Richmond
Others gain: Bradfield, Cowper, Wannon, Calare

Total:

ALP 78
Coalition 52
Greens 5
Others 15

On the whole, a lot of very close contests but I have leaned towards the incumbent for races that I thought were close to 50-50. This includes Bennelong and Gilmore. I think that Victoria is genuinely swinging a couple of points less to ALP than the rest of the nation so I would normally consider Menzies and Deakin as potential ALP pickups but in this case I lean towards them being Coalition. Sturt is a notable exception here because I think the results in this area have been far too good in recent years for the Labor party to not be the prohibitive favourite. Meanwhile Moore is I think a good prospect for an upset Labor win because WA seems to be swinging towards Labor from 2022 and Moore consistently swings in line with the state, plus there is a potential preference split with the former Liberal member’s ticket. Labor also preselected a strong candidate in 2022 and have kept him for this election.

I have been looking for seats for the Coalition to pick up, and earlier in the campaign I thought they would have Lingiari, Paterson, Bennelong and potentially Gilmore, but they have unravelled awfully. What’s particularly striking to me is their primary vote decline. I think this therefore bodes especially poorly for them when contesting independents, because Coalition defectors to minor right wing parties might still preference against Labor but that is far less so when it comes to non-classic contests, if perhaps even favouring the challenger.

Likewise, votes for Greens and others seems to have picked up over the course of the campaign. Therefore I think they will hold on to their 2022 gains. It’s hard to guess the individual seats where they should do well. However, I think Richmond is a seat where the Greens are generally increasing while Labor is declining, and the same candidates from 2022 for all of Greens, Labor and Nationals are in the mix so it doesn’t feel that there should be a dramatic change. With just the continued gains of the Greens at the expense of Labor, that seems like a good prospect for a pickup.

In Melbourne, I thought Wills should be a good prospect because of Palestine but considering the Greens margin from the areas redistributed from Melbourne is slightly inflated, I’m not sure they are actually getting the swing they require. It may be a close call but I’m tilting Labor. I also think Josh Burns should retain Macnamara relatively handily although that may end up a mug call.

No idea about Fowler, I can see Tu Le winning but once again I’ll default to the incumbent where I don’t have a solid read.

The big takeaway to me is that I’m honestly not seeing the path to 60 seats for the Coalition when their vote is this low, because not only are they likely losing seats to Labor but also to independent challengers.

LNP gain: McEwen, Paterson, Aston, Monash, Gilmore, Lingiari (54)
ALP gain: Moore, Sturt, Bass, Brisbane, Leichhardt (75)
GRN gain: Wills, Richmond, Macnamara (6)
IND gain: Wannon, Calare, Bradfield, Cowper (15)

Both Labor and Liberals will lose seats but not always to each other.
Hung parliament, Labor with Greens and 10 independents will form government.
Nationals will (just) hold ground.
Teal Independents will hold ground and add to their ranks by two.
Marked increase in One Nation votes.
Greens vote will increase but representation will decrease.
Substantial increase in informal votes.
Dutton, Joyce, Hastie, Sukkar will lose their seats.

Labor to win with a similar number of seats to 2022. Libs to go backwards by a few. Crossbench to grow by a few.

Labor to pick up: Sturt, Bass, Bonner, and in the Bennelong Moment of the night, Dickson from the Libs. Brisbane from the Greens. Fowler from Dai Le (though I have no confidence in this).

Lib/Nats to pick up: Aston, Bennelong, Patterson and Gilmore from Labor and Curtin from the crossbench. Plus Calare if that counts.

Ind crossbench to win Bradfield, Cowper and Wannon from the Coalition.

I won’t tip it, but I can see suburban Brisbane turning on the Libs here and your Petrie/Longman/Forde types get very close. Leichhardt also one to watch.

The big question IMO is how close to reality the polls have been. The polls in the recent Canadian election were reasonably close to the final result, in the UK they were so-so and in the US they were so far out one has to wonder if they were polling voters in the right country. Polls here in the past decade have also been a mix of hit & miss.

If the polls are accurate, my guess would be some seat swapping between the two majors and the minors and independents will increase their total, despite probably losing a couple. Net result would be an ALP win with a slimmer majority or possibly even a minority ALP win. The senate probably won’t change in it’s left/right split, tho’ the two majors may lose a seat or two to minors on their side of the fence.

Behind any seat changes, the Libs will continue to go backwards in their old blue ribbon city seats, to the benefit of the independents & greens – the days of the Libs ‘broad church’ are long gone and they can’t appeal simultaneously to socially progressive and socially conservative voters since the gap between the two has widened too much. Appealing to one alienates the other. The big thing to watch for, as others have noted, will be what will happen in the ALP working class heartland. Will Dutton’s brand of politics appeal there and how much of an impact will it have? How many ALP heartland seats will become marginals?

Of course, Dutton’s own seat is quite marginal and this time the ALP is making an all out effort in Dickson, so there is a chance he could lose his seat and if that happens, the resulting fight in the party between the rights & the moderates to pick a leader and direction for the party will be messy and have lasting consequences for the party and the country. I suspect the rights would win since there are not enough moderates left in the party and probably fewer after tomorrow since they are more at risk from the independents.

Here’s my prediction starting from notional boundaries:
ALP 72 (+ Bennelong, Sturt)
L/NP 60 (+ Paterson, Gilmore, McEwen, Menzies, Aston, Lyons, Lingiari)
GRN 5 (+ Macnamara)
IND 11 (+ Cowper, Wannon)
I’ve been a bit conservative here and tried to limit it to flips i find especially likely, but there are a few other seats where I wouldn’t be surprised at alternative results like Bradfield, Wills, Fowler, Moore, Werriwa etc.

Labor majority.

1.4 seat variation is huge, number of electors in some seats are 40% less than others. This election is the biggest difference, away from one Vote one Value in Australian history.

Donkey vote favours Labor just on 50% of electorates. Helps alot in NSW and VIC.

Senate shows Labor at the best placed position on the Ballot papers since above line voting started in the Eighties.

Labor has had a lucky election, and didn’t go early or spring the election on anyone.

Electorally no talk of 4 year terms, fixed election dates and one vote one value, disappointing.

Enjoy the Festival of the Vote.

ALP 76 (+Moore, Deakin, Braddon, Dickson, Bonner, Griffith, Leichhardt)
LNP 53 (+Lyons, Ryan, Chisholm, Paterson, Robertson, Parramatta, Bennelong)
IND 15 (+Wannon, Forrest, Fisher, Cowper, Calare, Groom)
GRN 4 (+Macnamara, Richmond)

What im hoping for 😅

Impossible to predict Lingiari due to 66% turnout last time. If all those voters were found by the remote teams, it could be safe Labor.
However, not seeing Darwin voters returning Labor in Solomon.

I don’t have a general prediction but I’ll be watching the Western suburbs of Melbourne very closely. Labor once again seems to have run very flat here, while in Hawke and Gorton the Libs are bullish and in Fraser the Greens have run hard. There is virtually no media speculation on these seats as the margins look comfy on paper, but they all experienced pretty big swings last election with very little campaigning from Labor’s opponents. Gorton has a new parachuted in Labor candidate after Brendan O’Connor’s retirement.

ALP: 69 (+ Sturt, Brisbane, Leichhardt)
LIB/NAT: 62 (+ Lyons, Bullwinkel, Menzies, McEwen, Aston, Paterson, Werriwa, Lingiari, Gilmore, Ryan, Moore, Monash)
GRN: 5 (+ Macnamara, Wills, Richmond)
IND: 12 (+ Cowper, Wannon, Calare)
KAP: 1
CA: 1

Prediction: Labor minority with support from Greens and Teals.

The Coalition has too much ground to make up and the wind has gone out of their sails in this campaign. So I’m tipping Labor with a slightly increased majority.

The ALP brand seems to have weakened quite a bit in Vic so that might help the Greens in Wills, McNamarra and even cut GED Kearney’s margin in Cooper (although I think she’ll hold).

Don’t see any of the Teals losing to THIS Liberal party.

Ryan is a pseudo-teal seat, so Greens to hold there.

Max has been the spokesperson for Greens on Housing nationally (a hot button issue) and as a first term MP he should hold.

Brisbane is anyone’s guess. It’s the most vulnerable of the Greens 3-pack in Brissie.

Moreton will give Labor a scare but will stay with them.

I get a feel that NSW Greens are surging a bit, so my “value bet” of the night is for them to pick up Richmond.

So Greens total for the night.

Retain their existing 4 and pick up Richmond, Wills & Macnamarra.

So 7 total.

The mathematical way back from 2022 for the Libs/Nats was to reengage the social liberal voters in the seats they lost to the Teals, and turn around loses in WA. The blue-ribbon Sydney-Melbourne Liberal seats where professional women were sick of Morrison’s patronising attitudes to women and dismissal of climate change? They are still there, and come Sat evening they will still be there, as Dutton has just moved even further right. Taking seats off Labor in WA seems difficult, so it will be pretty much what we have now, but I would expect a few ALP seats to change hands on NSW north coast/south coast. Greens to retain their seats. Labor to be largest party, but just short of a majority. Crossbench widens at expense of Libs. Size of the PHON vote may affect a couple of Qld electorates. The Bum Trumpets to crash and burn.

@ James
You keep double counting Aston and Menzies. You either have to use who is the sitting member or which party was on it notionally based on 2022 results on current boundaries. So both cannot be Liberal gains. I prefer use the latte approach so based on your prediction Moore, Aston and Monash are Liberal retains not pick ups.

*latter

Labor majority. 80 seats. The fact they’re fighting over Bennelong suggests Labor will get a majority. Labor should never be in a position to hold this seat under the new boundaries except potentially at a change in Government.

I’m not going to predict the total result, but I’m watching the “safe” Labor seats in Melbourne’s West with interest. Liberals are very bullish in Gorton and Hawke and Greens have run a very strong campaign in Fraser. In Gorton the Labor candidate after O’Connor’s retirement has come from out of the area, and in Gorton and Fraser I reckon Labor have been flat. Last election Labor lost significant ground in their primaries, mostly left in Fraser and evenly split in Gorton. Not much polling or real analysis done in these seats so definitely an election night watch.

5 seats undecided at midnight Saturday due to order of elimination issues.

as an obsessive election predictor there’s nothing i like more than this.
ALP Majority government
ALP 82 seats
LNP 46 seats
Teal/IND/Other 16 seats
GRN 6 seats
feel like dutton’s campaign has gone so poorly that its likely the LNP will even lose ground on an already poor result in 2022.
ALP -> LNP Flips: Lingiari, Aston
LNP -> ALP Flips: Sturt, Moore, Deakin, Menzies, Banks, Bonner, Dickson, Leichhardt
GRN -> ALP Flips: Brisbane
ALP -> GRN Flips: Wills, Macnamara, Richmond
LNP -> IND/Other Flips: Bradfield, Cowper, Calare, Wannon, Monash

Posted from a different thread:

ALP 77 Coalition 56 Greens 4 Independents 13

Other predictions, specific to this website:
* Someone will declare victory for the Coalition between 8pm and 10pm based on early results in a random safe seat
* Someone else will declare a landslide victory for Labor between 8pm and 10pm based on the same rationale
* A seat that absolutely nobody has on their bingo card will flip
* Dutton’s political obituary will be written, rewritten and revised several times during the evening
* Someone will hyperlink a previous conversation thread comment at least six months old to win a minor debating point
* Ben will be referred to as the ‘next Antony Green’ at least once
* Someone will demand ‘what about the Senate results’ before 10pm

I’m going to stand by my predictions and say that Labor will fall just short of majority at 75 seats. Details are as follows:

ALP: 75 (Gains Sturt, Leichhardt, Brisbane, retains Bennelong)
COA: 56 (Gains Gilmore, Aston, Paterson, Bullwinkel, McEwen, retains Menzies)
GRN: 5 (Gains Wills, Macnamara)
IND: 12 (Gains Cowper, Wannon, Bradfield)
CA: 1
KAP: 1

However, if there are any surprises for Labor I’d keep an eye out for Deakin, Moore, Bonner and Dickson. If Labor wants a shot at majority they’ll need to either win one in addition to the above of these OR keep most (if not all) of their potential losses AND pick up those other seats. As for the Liberals, if they have a good night they’ll be able to put Lyons, Lingiari and Werriwa into play.

Thank you Ben Raue for making this thread so we all can have fun.

I’ve been making a prediction every month since December 2024 just to track how my prediction will change. Poll aggregates from Kevin Bonham and Pollbludger and YouGov’s MRP shows that Labor will win, maybe increase their majority government. However, given the polling trend for most of the campaign showed Labor possibly getting a minority government, and I think this baked in assumption has made me hesitant in Labor getting a majority. In addition, now that Labor is heading towards majority, there’s a really small pool of seats makes me feel uncomfortable in giving back to Labor; I see McEwen and Aston locked down as minimum Labor losses in VIC; Gilmore is held on a very narrow margin and has a popular(?) Liberal candidate; Paterson’s MP from what I’ve heard is invisible except during election campaign and the seat is outer suburban; Greens have local circumstances which could allow them to win in Richmond, Macnamara and Wills; etc.

Note bc this was a slight issue in Pollbludger: I use LNP as a shorthand for Coalition

Seats-
ALP: 75 (-3)
LNP: 57 (+4)
GRN: 4
KAT: 1
CA: 1
WSC: 1 (Dai Le retains Fowler)
IND: 11 (-2)

RESULT: Labor Minority with supply and confidence from Independents

Seats-
– Gilmore, Paterson, McEwen and Aston flip to LNP from ALP
– Bullwinkel is ALP gain
– Monash and Moore flip to LNP from IND
– Sturt flip to ALP from LNP
– Brisbane flip to ALP from GRN
– Richmond flip to GRN from ALP
– Cowper and Bradfield flip to IND from LNP

Changes to last prediction in Mid-April:
– Bennelong and Lingiari from LNP flip to ALP retain (Expecting Scott Yung’s controversies to hurt him in Bennelong. Lingiari is a more shakey prediction which relies on the same or increased rural and Aboriginal turnout, also I’ve heard a strong hatred of Jacinta Price helps encourage people to vote)
– Sturt from LNP retain to ALP flip (LIBS insiders suggest a struggle in this seat, increase in Green and Teal vote will flow to Labor and Labor’s brand is popular in SA)
– Ryan from LNP flip to GRN retain (Trump factor probably reminds voters why they voted Greens)
– Richmond from ALP retain to GRN gain (GRN support increased ~3% in NSW, Justine Elliot’s polling has decreased over the decade and Mandy Nolan is well known and has campaigned actively)
– Macnamara and Wills from GRN gain from ALP retain (Expecting Josh Burn’s popularity to help him hold out against the Greens. Wills, the Gaza issue seem to have decreased in prominence and due to increase in Labor polling, I’m expecting voters in the northern parts to return to Labor)
– Cowper (expecting Heise to hold her support in Coffs Harbour and increase her support in Port Macquarie where she has moved to and made her base of operations) and Bradfield (mainly due to Chinese-Australian preferences from Andy Yin; I may be overestimating his support here) from LNP retain to IND gain
– Calare from LIB gain to IND retain (Expecting Gee to make 2pp and win off Non-NATs preferences)
– Bullwinkel from LNP gain to ALP gain (Following the logic that Bullwinkel’s results mainly correlates with WA’s 2pp result, and that seems to be in favour of Labor according to Pollbludger)

My prediction is as followed:

Labor Gains: Nil
Coalition Gains: 4 (Lyons, Aston, Calare and one of either Bullwinkel, Gilmore or Bennelong)
Greens Gains: NIL
Independent Gains: 1 (One of either Bradfield, Wannon and Cowper)

Wildcard Seats:
Macnamara (If the Labor vote does drop sufficiently, this could go anywhere)

This would put Labor on 75 seats, 1 seat short of a majority.
Effectively, I’m putting Labor either as a functioning minority government, or back to a razor-thin majority.

I should also add to the above, before I forget, that Griffith will be a seat to watch for Labor too, if they want a shot at majority. It’s a long shot but it’s worth keeping an eye out for.

Correction – That would put Labor on 74, 2 short of majority, but the sentiment still stands.

I can’t offer a big prediction but I think Libs are pretty worried about a couple of seats in Tasmania because of the salmon issue. So a possible new Labor seat plus an outside chance for Franklin to go to an independent. If the Libs hadn’t given prefs to Labor above the Indi , he’d have a strong chance. No Greens there.

@Nimalan – apologies. The actual seat count is very complicated as I probably should have stuck with the results of the last election. Nonetheless I do expect the Liberals to gain Aston off Mary Doyle and the redistributed margin in Menzies to be overturned. I probably should have clarified that.

All good James it is just to make sure we dont double count

I predict that if Dutton doesn’t win the Sky News pundits will say it is because he isn’t right-wing enough

@bazza – this is a “prediction” thread not a “stating the obvious” thread.

Agree that Tasmania is a threat to the Libs and NT is a threat to ALP. I think there is particular potential for Bass to ALP and Solomon and Lingiari to CLP. She is a very popular Chief Minister in NT.
If the ALP win net seats in NSW, they will increase their majority.

Labor will win in their own right. Their polices were hammered through and the Mediscare campaign has done its job spectacularly
The LNP will lose seats to the Teals.Pauline Hanson will double her vote count. It will not be a hung parliament. Get ready for an inheritance tax

I don’t think being right or left wing is of any consequence to the average voter frankly in today’s world. Only to us.
The next election is more likely to be fought on economics and not cost of living.
I’ve never seen a worse run campaign by a political party, Libs in this instance, than this one (I’m too young for McMahon) and a total inability to repeal accusations convincingly.
Jim Chalmers, who will likely be the next ALP PM sometime next term, puts all used car salesmen to shame. He is the most clever retail salesman since Keating (which will come against him eventually) but his economic ideologies are far to the left of Keating (which he acknowledges and personally is no fan of where Keating took Australia) and the Liberal Party does not have anyone that is close to challenging him with conviction. At some point, Labor will have to address revenue when expenses are 27% of GDP and growing and this will be very difficult politically for them. Higher income earners can’t pay more. Removing interest deductibility on investment properties is poison. Perhaps some super changes can be made for wealthier superannuants but not against unrealised capital gains. It makes the cupboard fairly bare unless they look again at taxing resources and banks higher.
I pray for the day the Libs have the courage to reconsider the most efficient tax, the GST, and give most benefits back to personal income taxpayers and consider some wider microeconomic reform which curtails expenditure and inflation and improves productivity, as should be their mandate.
Both sides are very poor. The current Libs unbelievably so.
But given all this weakness, I do hope for a close result so that we challenge our politicians for the best ideas which improves our opportunities and standard of living. We have been going backwards for some time relative to the best countries.
I predict that Dutton will have to resign. I don’t see a flood of seats changing hands at this election but we will probably see an increase in marginal seats.

CantWard – I hope you are correct on things such as an inheritance tax. This is the potential cockiness that will cause Chalmers to employ such ideas. And it will cost them greatly next time because it is anti aspiration. Let’s remember, without Trump, this was always a 50/50 election, no matter what spin one wants to put on it. Had Labor called the election prior to the cyclone, their seat count was in the mid-high 60’s according to some Labor insiders. Maybe focussing on GDP growth might be a better idea, as Keating did.

I reckon the biggest move of this election won’t be tomorrow, but will be in the senate count. I reckon One Nation will pick up at least 3 seats.

If you combine the 2022 senate votes for One Nation and UAP, the amalgamated party picks up the final seat in every mainland state. The fighting between Palmer and Hanson is the only thing keeping them out of the senate.

One Nation seems to be consolidating the right wing minor party vote, and preferences from the Libs is helping their credibility. They’ll pick up a few seats this time, and in a few elections time we’ll see them consistently winning senate seats as the greens currently do.

Said on PB earlier, it’s hard for Labor to do as well as last time, because the Coalition only winning 58 of 151 was a great result for them.
I wonder, if a few Nationals MPs in NSW get a Teal fright, or are beaten, the rest outside of Qld would see the Teal writing on the wall and bolt to for a coalition government with the minority ALP?
It was the assertion of some rural Qld Labor activists of the past that the Country Party would come across eventually, because they didn’t have much in common with the Liberal Party or big agriculture.

From other thread, but slightly updated. I now have Aston as Liberal held so not a gain. Menzies counts as Labor seat so Liberal gain. I also adjusted for Paterson. Also a little more commentary.

Seat predictions time. A mug’s game and I am ready for embarrassment.

Coalition wins Paterson, Calare, McEwen, Menzies, Bullwinkel, Tangey, Mackellar and Lingiari.

Labor wins Sturt, Bonner, Leichardt, Brisbane, Griffith.

Greens wins Wills, Richmond (feels like I predict this every election, but it has to happen eventually right)

Independent wins: Fairfax, Cowper, Wannon.

Now for the caveats. I’ve probably over estimated the preference flows from the minor right etc and got some of the state factors a little wrong while reading the tea leaves.

Then on the opposite side of it, if the LNP get a higher primary in outer suburbs and blue collar seats than I expect and the preference flows are strong, then maybe some of Gilmore, Whitlam, Werriwa, Blair, Moreton, Robertson, Greenway and a couple of Melbourne seats come into it. I doubt it though. I think even in the unlikely scenario that swings are strong it’s going to be on safe Labor seats and not enough to tip most of them over.

I have no idea about the Tasmania situation so left it out, similarly I am unsure of WA and it’s more a guess about Bullwinkle and Tangey based off other posters on here.

Also I might mention I think both Sunny Coast seats will be close. I just flipped a coin to say Fairfax.

So based on my actual seat prediction and if my math is right I get it as:

Labor 74
Coalition 59
Greens 4
Independents 12
Katter 1

I can just add this regarding the Senate, everywhere I’ve been from Gladstone to Southport to Ipswich to Caloundra to Maleny to Redlands to Caboolture to Strathpine to Bundaberg (you get the idea I’ve travelled basically the whole south east corner, the Rennick People First signage and booth presence is superior to One Nation and Palmer. The social media reaction to Rennick is higher too (also higher than LNP posts).

Maybe that doesn’t count for much, maybe the Hanson One Nation brand doesn’t need a ground game. But for what it’s worth, Rennick has given himself every chance.

ALP 76 seats, Coalition 56, teals 7, Greens 5, plus Katter and Sharkie and 4 independents: Gee in Calare, Haines in Indi, ex-Liberal Broadbent to retain Monash, and Wilkie in Clark.
I don’t think nearly as many seats will change allegiances as newspaper reports predict. They often look for drama where this is none.
So… I reckon the Coalition will win 4 from Labor,
Lingiari (NT), Aston (Vic), Tangney (WA) and Bullwinkel (WA); while 2 will move in the opposite direction: Sturt (SA) and Leichhardt (QLD). The ALP’s Tu Le to regain Fowler from independent Dai Le. Liberals to also regain Moore (WA) from a Liberal turned independent (although Labor could possibly pinch this very interesting seat).
Greens to win Richmond from ALP (and retain their three Brisbane seats – I know that’s a big call no-one else seems to want to make).
Independents to win 2 Coalition seats: Cowper (teal type candidate) and Monash (former Liberal).
The following marginals are likely to be close, but I’m going for the sitting party or independent to retain, as follows:
NSW – ALP seats: Gilmore, Paterson, Robertson, – LIberal seats: Bennelong, Banks, Bradfield – teal seat: Mackellar;
VIC – ALP seats: Chisholm, McEwen, Wills, Macnamara – Liberal seats: Deakin, Menzies, Wannon – teal seat: Goldstein;
QLD – Green seats: Brisbane, Ryan, Griffith – LNP seats: Flynn, Longman and Dickson;
WA – teal seat: Curtin;
TAS – Liberal seat – Bass; ALP seat – Lyons.
I’m labelling the following as ‘safeish’ and would be very surprised if they changed hands:
NSW – Hunter, Parramatta, Werriwa, Berowra and Hughes;
VIC – Dunkley, Corangamite, Hawke, Casey and Kooyong (although the conventional wisdom seems to be that Monique Ryan is in trouble);
QLD – Forde, Bonner (possibly best best of this lot to change), Bowman, Capricornia and Petrie;
WA – Fremantle and Pearce;
SA – Boothby;
TAS – Braddon
The other 95 seats are declared safe (including Wentworth and those where there is noise about anti-Labor pro-Palestine vote)

Forgot to mention – thanks Ben for all your work on this an other elections. The Tally Room is a brilliant site, with excellent incisive observation.

Reckon ncp drop 2 ( Calare & Cowper)
Libs drop 2. (Wannon & Bradfield)
Maybe wrong but reckon Monash close
Between Broadbent and Libs
Alp 73 to 80…
Cusp of majority
Rest approx status quo

Status quo outside the 5 seats discussed
+
– …3

Banks will hopefully be a dark horse win for labor

Forgot to mention – thanks Ben for all your work on this and other elections. The Tally Room is a brilliant site, with excellent incisive observation.