Prahran by-election incoming

I believe all 3 main parties will contest, as well as AJP and Socialists on the Left and at least 2 minor on the right.
The Greens have a strong presense and should win. I think their main issue will be the Israel/Palestine conflict and the ALP long time in office.

I am going 90% Green or ALP at this point.

Green retain with reduced margin.

The Greens would struggle if the three main parties contested. Sam Hibbins’s personal vote is now gone. Oftentimes there might be a sense of shame or remorse when an MP leaves due to bad behaviour or allegations of it. There’s also the Israel issue. The St Kilda East and Balaclava parts have large Jewish communities. The Israel issue is the Greens’s kryptonite.

The wild card is whether Michelle Ananda-Rajah (whose federal seat here just got abolished) will run.

I alluded to these in the by-election guide.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/prahranby2025

Liberals will win comfortably: a slap in the face for Labor.

I think it would be a slap in the face for the Greens moreso than Labor considering its a Greens held seats.

Greens should retain comfortably but on a reduced margin.

Israel will be a non-issue as the seat only includes a small part of St Kilda East (the section bounded by Chapel, Dandenong, Orrong and Inkerman) and even that is only 11% Jewish, and none of Balaclava. Nowhere else in the seat including St Kilda has a significant Jewish population and suburbs like St Kilda and Windsor are more pro-Palestine than pro-Israel.

Also, anyone who wouldn’t vote for the Greens over the Israel issue now probably didn’t vote for them in 2022 either.

@Trent I definitely agree about the last part, but 11% is still quite high (though not as high as in Caulfield).

It is but it’s only a very small area, actually smaller than I even said above because I forgot that the part east of Hotham was transferred to Caulfield at the last redistribution.

@Trent, I don’t necessarily agree with this:
“Also, anyone who wouldn’t vote for the Greens over the Israel issue now probably didn’t vote for them in 2022 either.”

It is not inconceivable that people who were (indeed still are) supportive of a 2 state solution would be anti Hamas, or be put off by the protests that were occurring on a weekly basis. Particularly as the Greens are pretty explicitly now courting a fairly religiously conservative Muslim vote, pro abortion young women and the LGBTQ community in particular might be put off.

There does seem at least some anecdotal evidence that this is happening – noting there are other potential reasons the Greens inner urban vote might be stagnating/slightly declining.

@ MLV
I am not sure how LGBT/Pro-Abortion issues are related to the Israel Palestine conflict. There is a Queers for Palestine group that has been attending Pro-Palestine protests worldwide. Oustide of the Jewish community, The Christian Right are very Pro-Israel and they will against LGBT rights and Abortion. I think the point Trent is trying to make is that Jewish voters would be well aware of the Pro Palestine stance of the Greens prior to October 7th. Michael Danby wanted to put the Greens last on HTV way back in 2013. There is also very few Christian Conservatives in Prahran who are Pro-Israel and even if there were a few they likely did not want to Greens last time. Conversely, this area has virtually no Muslims here so unlike Wills i dont think Pro-Palestine stance benefits the Greens as much as the Green Left/Student radicals probably already voted for the Greens in 2022.

* did not vote

If all goes wrong the Palestine issue could actually kill the Greens entirely. Like, literally kill them.

The Greens have been very pro-Palestine and have had cases of antisemitism in the party and that’s what they mostly talk about now: Palestine and wokeism. The Greens have always been left of their base, in fact many of their voters only vote for them because they want more climate action (not necessarily the economically unsustainable and physically impossible extreme targets the Greens have) and/or they want to stick it to the majors.

Voters might start to see through the Greens’ left-wing and far-left populism and radical ecosocialism.

I believe that everyone should care more about issues like the COL crisis, health, education, transport, infrastructure, border control, etc than issues like pronouns, gender-neutral toilets, CRT, destroying our national identity, foreign wars where there is right and wrong on both sides (the war in Ukraine is all Russia’s fault, but the Israel-Palestine conflict is more complex), etc.

What am I getting at here? Well, as @MLV said, many Muslims are anti-gay marriage and anti-abortion, and a small minority are extremists who are homophobic, transphobic, antisemitic and anti-Western and hold Andrew Tate-esque views on women and women’s rights. Women and LGBT people don’t want to vote for someone who doesn’t stand up for them, and socially conservative Muslims won’t want to vote for someone who goes against their traditional values.

The Greens were once an environmental party, now they’re just tryna be woke, ecosocialist and pro-Palestine. It’s not working out well for them and I don’t think Adam Bandt will learn because he never listens, he just spits rubbish.

@ MLV, Nimalan basically answered perfectly on my behalf 🙂

That was exactly my point. While I think outside this part of Melbourne, the war in Gaza has probably brought the Israel-Palestine issue to people’s attention in a way that it wasn’t before, in the area covered by Macnamara it has always been prominent. Every election I remember dating back to about 2013 in this area, it has been central, with Labor often making the Greens’ support of Palestine a central issue.

This is why I don’t think it will be much of a vote changer in any significant way even for Macnamara next year. It’s already been a central issue in that seat for a long time, and the war has probably only reinforced people’s views either way rather than changing them.

Specifically in relation to the seat of Prahran though, almost none of the Macnamara’s Jewish community is even in the seat, other than the small section of St Kilda East I mentioned that is bounded by Chapel, Dandenong, Hotham & Inkerman, which I estimate to be maybe around 8-10% Jewish. And I do think the Greens vote among that cohort would have been very low anyway. Outside of that little square, I can’t see how the issue would harm the Greens anymore than it would in any other seat.

I’ll note too, living in the area, that pretty much all the Greens posters, ads, events and online content around this particular area is very much focused on the things Nether Portal just mentioned – cost of living, health & housing – and not really at all on Palestine or “woke” issues.

The seat of Prahran has the highest percentage of renters in the state, and by far the most common Greens posters that are plastered everywhere have been “RENT FREEZE NOW”.

They have also been very active in opposing the demolition of the housing commission towers, and Prahran has by far the most housing commission south of the river with a number of towers that would be demolished (which most of the tenants oppose).

The other key issue they have been campaigning hard on is free childcare & kindergarten. They have been hosting baby clothes swap meets around Windsor, St Kilda, Elwood etc to promote that policy.

I think they are pretty good at targeting their message in different areas. What the news media covers is usually just whatever is controversial, but in the inner-south in particular they barely mention Palestine have focused mostly on rent freezes, public housing, free childcare and dental in Medicare.

Yes, sorry Trent – I got the logic the wrong way around.

I still think my point stands though.

BTW, I think this will be a Greens retain – it reminds me of Balmain more than anything.

Actually, because there is a strong possibility of all 3 majors losing support but not to each other, a high profile independent could make things interesting.

As i mentioned in other threads multiple times, i dont want to comment on who is morally right on the Israel-Palestine conflict. I have friends who are both Jewish and Muslim/Arab and it is a very emotive issue. I am neither Muslim/Arab nor Jewish so i just want to stick to who it impacts voting patterns in Western Countries. I dont believe i can persuade anyone to change their views on a conflict that has lasted since 1947 and i am not about to. What i do find annoying is that many people keep dragging Muslims into a culture war on Abortion, LGBT rights etc. While many people in those communities may have more conservative views on it many Muslims or other CALD communities will also be against pork, Alcohol, pornography, hook up culture, people having children outside wedlock, unmarried couples living together before marriage. However, voting for Right wing parties will not change any of those thing so many minorities just accept it. and know that they cannot change the view of the majority It will be as stupid as saying Hindus in the Western World will just vote for Animal Justice Party because of Beef.

Also in Prahran unlike Macnamara i think the Jewish community is too small for tactical voting to make it an ALP V GRN seat and for Labor to win it on Liberal preferences.

*how it impacts voting patterns.

@Nimalan I fully agree with the last part, only 3.7% of people in the seat Prahran are Jewish (above average but not as much as seats like Caulfield where 29.1% of the population is Jewish).

@Trent lots of the online Greens campaigns have been about Palestine and woke issues like abolishing Australia Day, changing the flag, etc.

I agree with everything you said there Nimalan, – however Muslim votes Matter is going to be much more like say Corey Bernardi’s Christian Party that the fairly liberal Liberal or National parties (despite what some lefties might think of them). That doesn’t mean that all Muslims, or even a majority, are very religiously conservative but most of those who are going to be motivated to vote based on Israel/Palestine are – and that does have implications for the Greens.

@ MLV
With respect to Muslims Vote Matter (MVM), i do think they may run candidates in a few seats namely Calwell, Watson and Blaxland all which are more than 20% Muslim. A MVM candidate may indeed be Left Conservative or a reverse teal and be socially conservative on LGBT issues etc as you correctly pointed out to Corey Bernadi. I personally doubt an MVM candidate will actually win for the simple reason even if they make the 2CP i cannot see the Libs preferencing such a candidate over Labor as this will cause a furious reaction from their own base. In a seat like Wills, an MVM candidate has no hope as the Muslim community is only 10% the Greens are hoping to win it as the Muslim Community is concentrated in the part the Greens are the weakest which is why it is the most likely seat to change hands as a result of the conflict. Your own seat of Holt is 10% Muslim while that is much higher than the state and national average it is not enough for them to make the 2CP and there is a decent Liberal vote so the Libs will certainly be in the 2CP. Kuraby booth is probably the best example of what could happen if there is no MVM candidate. In that booth Labor lost 35% primary vote and the Greens came first with 41.0% primary but Labor actually got swing to them in 2PP terms. In a seat like Bruce or Calwell, if there is no MVM candidate and it is just Victorian Socialists and Greens running it may actually cause a swing to Labor in 2PP terms and reverse anti-lock down sentiment from 2022.

On the current boundaries the libs cannot win.
Close contest alp and greens

@Nether Portal, I think these days especially on social media though, online campaigns are pretty well geographically targeted.

I know on my own Facebook, all the sponsored Greens posts are local ones – not national ones – and have all been about the very issues I mentioned which all relate more to cost of living: free childcare & rent freeze being the two biggest.

I forgot to mention too that they have also had a lot of posters in this area around saving live music by supporting a state insurance scheme for venues. Probably a bit more of a fringe issue but definitely wins some votes in suburbs that attract musicians like St Kilda.

Not disagreeing at all though that the broader public perception is that the Greens focus on identity politics and Palestine. That’s absolutely the case.

But I think there is possibly a different experience based on whether or not you live in a Greens target seat: those who don’t probably only really get the broader national message, but those who do are likely bombarded with a lot more of their tailored local messaging. My experience living in St Kilda – the part in the seat of Prahran specifically – has been a very aggressive Greens focus on the cost of living, rent, childcare, live music and public housing (and of course climate), both in online ads/posts and out on the streets.

They are pouring resources into Macnamara which partially overlaps with Prahran and they are definitely the messages they’re hammering more than anything else, to the point where they are running regular baby clothes swap meets all around the area, which are being framed as cost of living relief for young families but also used to promote their childcare policy.

@Nether Portal. The Greens have always been bougie hippies. They are not a class based left wing party. They are issues oriented. I got in an argument with a Greens member over class versus issues at a protest a number of years ago. The Greens pitch their message to people of competing classes. They spent a hell of a lot of resources trying to get Julian Burnside elected in affluent Kooyong while not being able to find Braybrook on a map. The Greens (as a party) don’t work within the union movement, whereas as individual Greens do. If you compare the way the Greens work on council to Sue Bolton, you see the differences. Sue talks to her constituents and says what she believes, and asks for their input. They then work together. The Greens come in and say that a particular issue is wrong and they preach upon high.

The Greens are not socialist they are reformist social democrats. They believe that the way to achieve change is by working up the right channels. They don’t stand for the abolition of the capitalist state. They want to make capitalism friendly. Friendly capitalism is as erroneous as the Friendly Grocer supermarket, where you pay double the price for rotten fruit, but it’s friendly because they tell me so every time I need to grab groceries quickly and I can’t be bothered going to the mall.

In 2016 Samantha Ratnam derided an anti fascist protest in Coburg, as she towed the Murdoch/ Stokes line of both sides being the same. Now she has moved to the left. I have met her and I applaud her work defending public housing tenants.

The Greens are the only major party that has taken a principled stance on Palestine. I say that as someone of Ashkenazi heritage. Israel doesn’t speak for all Jews. Anti Zionist Jews are present at the Sunday rallies and other actions. One prominent activist is a ex IDF soldier who came to realize that he was not defending Judaism by carrying out actions on behalf of the Israeli state. Queers (which I am one) make up a sizable percentage of the pro Palestine protests. We are welcomed by everyone, regardless of their religion or lack of religion. Many Palestinians are Christian, while others are Muslim or atheist. The Palestinian protests are intersectional as the issue cuts to the very core of settler colonialism, capitalism, racism, and the military industrial complex. This is one reason why the protests are so hated by the establishment because a spotlight is also being shone on Australia and America. The protests challenge the AUKUS alliance, the militarization of the economy, the dispossession of First Nations people, and that Israel does not equate to Judaism. They also show up mass slaughter to be a disabling event, so disability issues are also raised.

There are many Muslims who are pro LGBTQI, and choice etc, just like there are Christian fundamentalists who are opposed to the LGBTQI community and a woman’s right to choose. The biggest threat to me personally is Peter Dutton. I don’t consider him a real friend of Jews either. He supports the capitalist nation state of Israel not Jewish people. He is a racist and I don’t think he gives a damn about Jewish people. He doesn’t speak out against Neo Nazis who desecrate Jewish graves, Shules, or aged care homes. The same goes for Andrew Bolt. Bolt wrote a racist article deriding all non Anglos, including Jewish people. He attacked people (like my direct relatives) who chose to live in the Caulfield area. He said that they were forming separatist enclaves. I personally don’t choose to live in the Caulfield area. Bolt has no understanding (or empathy) of what it is like to be non Teutonic. Bolt is a Dutch Protestant who has never experienced racism. The Dutch were encouraged to settle in so-called Australia as they were Teutonic and Protestant.

I care about all issues ranging from Gender Identity through to cost of living. I am not one of these uni student tote bag carrying types. I am a blue collar worker who lives in the unfashionable poor part of my suburb, where there are rows of old school walk up flats (including mine), some public housing, concrete sidewalks, lots of main roads, heavy pollution, flight paths, overpriced groceries, and heaps of junk food establishments. You want the good food you have to go to the part where the suburban tourists go. They never come out my way. They probably don’t even know it exists. So, like you, I know about COL (groceries have doubled in price at Coles. So much so that I am reducing what I eat), rental stress, and health issues. You live on a main road, or within a few hundred meters of one or more, your life span diminishes by 10 years. People live in my pocket of the suburb because the rent is cheaper than living in the part, where all the bougie tourists from the suburbs hang out, and drink at the bars, or buy vintage clothes from the multinational for profit thrift super store.

The Greens cop a lot of cynicism because they are not part of the working class. They don’t make inroads into the class that I am a part of. They preach from upon high. You may hate real socialists/ Anarchists but I am sure you would respect them because they actually work within the working class. In the past the left was hated, but they were respected and feared precisely because they worked within the working class. They were not Greens bougie hippies. True leftists cross not only the much talked about Bell Street line, but the lines that no one wants to mention, the first being the Tullamarine Freeway, and the second being the Rubicon, that is the Maribyrnong River.

I am no flag waver for SAlt/VS, my flag is red and black, but I will give Jorge credit. He worked in the community and would have been a good representative for Burndap. He was fighting an uphill battle through.

@Nimalan

Agree, I think MVM will be a bust electorally. More interested in how the appeal to that demographic affects the Greens appeals to some of its more traditional demographics (young professional women and LGB in particular).

@Trent my federal seat is Fadden in Queensland so that might explain it. But parties should be honest and campaign for the same policies wherever they are. Labor saying they want to ban coal in Wills but keep it in Hunter is ridiculous. The members can have different views of course, but Albo shouldn’t be lying to one or both electorates.

@No Mondays Dutton supported banning neo-Nazi symbolism nationwide (including swastikas), so it’s safe to say he does care about Jewish people.

@ No Mondays
Thanks for sharing your views. Whilst i still dont want to comment on who is right or wrong in the conflict for the reasons i mentioned i want this to be a safe space. I do think LGBT issues are being dragged into this debate. I pointed out Queers for Palestine. Omar Hassan is the VS candidate for Calwell (most Muslim seat in Victoria). I am sure he is not going to campaign against LGBT issues or abortion or to restrict Alcohol in Meadow Heights.

@ Nether Portal
The reason Labor has to doublespeak is they have a deeply unpopular candidate in Wills. They dont need to that in Cooper, Canberra or Sydney where they have candidate who reflect they values of the seat.

I think it’s similar with the Greens messaging. It’s not so much that they have conflicting or contradictory messages in different seats, it’s just that they would only bother running an aggressively targeted campaign in seats that they can win.

So that’s why I think outside of their target seats, what’s seen in the news and in broader online discussions would likely be more visible than the messaging they are hammering in their target seats.

Another example of which, is tomorrow night they’re hosting a “Renters’ Rights Workshop” on how to challenge unfair rent increases, at a pub in St Kilda. So, similar to the baby clothes swap meets, they’re not just advertising policies on posters but even holding workshops and events to try to provide immediate assistance to people specifically on cost of living issues.

These are the sort of things at a local level that I think can reward them with votes but might be missed in commentary from outside the area.

The greens are at their worst a bit like the people who supported Turnbull ‘s model of a Republic long ago. From the the Republic movement. They would not help at the polling booth but would happily donate $50 to the cause.
Around the Balmain area they are quite wealthy but would not vote liberal er don’t vote alp but Green
Max hyphens handling of the alp housing proposals up to the last favourable u turn is an example of They policy stands. “Perfect is the enemy of good policy”
Never the less I will vote Labor and give them my second preference in.the senate. .as they are certainly better than the liberals and the far right

Please excuse my grammar and spelling mistakes my meaning is clear

so who gets first preference?

Mick is saying he will give Labor his first preference and Greens second.

Yes that is what I said

ok i didnt quit get that

i thought he meant hed give labor his second preference in the senate

@Trent. There are RAHU members who are also in the Greens, and I wonder if RAHU South branch is involved. Either way it’s a step in the right direction for the Greens.

In June there was a submissions workshop held at the Victoria Hotel in Footscray which was hosted by RAHU. It was very productive as we put forward submissions advocating for better rental standards, including air conditioning in rental properties. The Greens were not visibly present, however individual Greens members may have been in attendance.

It appears Labor is sitting this one out.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/26/labor-prahran-by-election-sitting-out-greens-mp-sam-hibbins-ntwnfb

@Nimalan. I believe too much is made of this so called conservative Muslim presence. Yes there are conservatives in every community, however there are progressives in every community too. I agree with you that Omar would not court any conservative vote, just like Sue Bolton didn’t in the local elections. In fact it was the ALP candidate who tried to court any conservatives. That candidate was trying to wedge Sue Bolton and didn’t work. In fact it was an abject failure. I wonder how VS will do in Calwell as they didn’t do that well in Hume.

@ No Mondays
I totally agree with you and too many people dragging unrelated issues. As i pointed out there are many things many people may personally oppose and especially if they are minorities just accept it. Julian Hill is Gay and is the MP for the second most Muslim seat in Victoria after Calwell and also a seat that voted against SSM. However, he has been welcomed in mosques and his sexual orientation has never been an issue. If you look at Vote Compass Calwell still shows up as a very left-wing seat.

I grew up in a strict ethnic family and often i had much less freedoms than my friends growing up my parents were very strict on what i could watch on TV. However, that did not mean my family/ethnic community were attracted to right wing populism my family did not like how the Tampa/Children Overboard was handled and supported an apology to the Stolen Generation etc. In a seat like Calwell you will not find right wing nationalism among the same ethnic communities. With regard to VS they did very well in the overlapping state electorates in November 2022 so i still think they can do well. They even came second in the Upfield booth around 20% Primary.
A local election does not have the same level of HTV cards handed out party name on Ballot paper and not the same level of excitement.

@Nimalan. I think you’re spot on. Often people can have ideas that are surface level only, and they can easily change attitudes. History has shown that people change ideas during struggles, one example is the Ford Broadmeadows strike during the 1970’s, as workers banded together and put aside personal differences.

The postal system made it difficult for people who aren’t involved in politics to know much about the candidates. It’s definitely an advantage to have people handing out HTV cards.

@ No Mondays
I agree i think for Omar to do well, There needs to be a strong ground game at train stations, shopping centers etc also choosing the correct booths to hand out HTVs. There is little point in Greenvale (affluent, more Italians fewer Muslims) or middle class growth areas in Calwell such as Mickleham which tend to have a % of non Muslim South Asians. Rather important to focus in Broadmeadows, Meadow Heights, Campbellfield, Cooloroo and Roxburgh Park all low SES, a % of Muslim, a lot of unionized manufacturing workers.

@Nimalan. You know the electorate well. Yes, Roxburgh Park has always had a high VS vote, campbellfield is where HTA is located, so there could be a big protest vote against Labor for plowing ahead with the militarization of the economy.

@ No Mondays
Last state and Federal election, the Bethel PS booth in Meadow Heights had the biggest TPP swing to the Libs. This is a booth VS should target if they so do well they could actually reverse some of the anti-lockdown swing from last time. This can help add more layers of Bricks to the Red Wall. The VS could also campaign on Dutton’s remarks on Gaza refugees.
Another area VS should target is the Dandenong area which has a lot of refugees low income and a unionised area full of manufacturing workers.

@Nimalan. Great insights. I wouldn’t be surprised if Aran Mylvaganam ran in the Dandenong area, as he is very active in the Tamil, and people who have sought asylum communities down there. I could see Jorge running in Fraser.

@ No Mondays
Yeah Aran could run, i think he will need to make inroads with the Afghan community who are now bigger in Dandenong than the Tamil community. The Afghan community will be staunchly Pro-Palestine so VS could campaign on that as well. It is important in Calwell, that VS has volunteers who can speak Arabic and Turkish and in Bruce the Dari language.
@Nether Portal recently did a table of all seats link below. Bruce and Calwell have a low % of people who speak English at home so any party that wants to campaign there need to have material translated.
https://jumpshare.com/v/lI5Kn8WKiNcI8h1o7sK3

@Nimalan lots would speak English as a second language though. But they would still prefer translated material, that’s only natural. I learnt French in school and I can understand some Italian but I’m still more comfortable speaking in English and would only speak French or Italian in countries that speak those languages (e.g France and Italy).

@ Nether Portal
Sometimes, languages show up as spoken at home even if the person is fluent in English for example my electorate of Menzies shows up with a high portion of non English speakers but a lot are Greeks who are 2nd and 3rd generation. There is are Greek community languages schools in my area but the students are 4th generation Australians these days. I learnt Italian in school can still understand and speak to an extent. In seats which have a lot of refugees such as Bruce and Calwell English fluency will be lower though. It is one of the reasons why informal vote is high in Blaxland, McMahon and Fowler (the reason Dai Le had to recommend preferences). In such seats preference discipline can be high one of the reasons Greenvale had the biggest anti-Labor swing of 15.0% to Libs TPP even though Libs only increased their primary by 1.1% of that there was a community independent named Fatma Erciyas who preferenced the Libs second so there would be a disciplined flow of preferences in an area where a significant % of people are unable to cast a formal vote without a HTV.

@Nimalan I do agree with you there, seats where there are lots of refugees will have a lower percentage of English speakers, especially if those refugees are poorly educated or come from countries where English isn’t widely spoken among people over 30. For example, a refugee from Pakistan would likely speak English as a second language (Pakistan’s official languages are Urdu, the most spoken language, and English, the colonial language) but one from Iraq or Syria might not speak English well or might even only speak Arabic.

Note that by “speaking English” I don’t mean understanding very basic words like “hello” and “thank you” which are universally understood worldwide (even by people who can’t speak English), but rather the ability to speak and understand sentences in English.