Over the last few days, speculation over this Saturday’s election has turned to the prospect of a hung parliament. While Julia Gillard has generally led in the last few polls, the picture is unclear, with the ALP suffering swings in New South Wales and Queensland and benefiting from a positive swing in Victoria.
With both parties clearly in contention to win, attention has turned to the possibility of a hung parliament, with the media focusing on sitting independents Bob Katter, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. The trio of regional MPs with National Party roots would likely work as a group if neither party secured a majority in the House of Representatives.
Yet, despite the lack of clarity about this weekend’s election, the chances of a hung parliament are relatively slim. There are two key factors that determine a hung parliament. The first is the closeness of the result (in terms of number of seats won). If the two major blocks win an even number of seats, the parliament will definitely be hung. Yet in some elections, a hung parliament can be elected despite one party winning many more seats than the other major party. This depends on the size of the crossbench, ie. those seats held by independents and minor parties.
In Parliaments where a lot of seats are held by crossbench MPs, a hung parliament can be achieved with relative ease. At the 2008 federal election in Canada, the Bloc Quebecoi, the New Democrats, and independents collectively won over 28% of seats in the House of Commons. This meant that, despite the Conservatives winning almost double the seats of the opposition Liberals (143 vs 77), they could not secure a majority.
Other examples include the recent general election in the United Kingdom, when 13% of seats were won by minor parties and independents, and the 2002 New Zealand election saw the Labour party win 52 seats to 27 for the Nationals, yet failed to win a majority. You tend to have large crossbenches in most parliaments elected using proportional representation, but the UK and Canada show that a multi-party system can produce regular hung parliaments in a single-member electorate system. Indeed, there is one case of a country, Malta, which does not have a single crossbench member of Parliament, despite using a proportional voting system. Due to this, it’s very hard to elect a hung parliament in Malta.
There are only three independents in the current House of Representatives. While there are chances for a Green to win a seat in Melbourne, an independent to win in Parkes, and a National (probably acting independently) in O’Connor, it’s unlikely that the crossbenches will grow a large number. So, assuming there are four crossbenchers, the gap between the major parties must be four seats or less to create a hung parliament.
In terms of what might happen in the case of a hung parliament, it seems most likely that we will see the three regional independents supporting whichever party wins the most seats.
Assuming that Windsor, Oakeshott and Kennedy are re-elected, and the Greens’ Adam Bandt wins Melbourne, that leaves 146 seats in the House of Representatives for the major parties. There are three options for a hung parliament: an even 73-73 split, a 74-72 split, or a 75-71 split.
Bandt has already made it clear that the Greens would support a Labor government rather than a Coalition government. Having said that, you would have to think that the ALP would rather work with the three regional independents than Bandt. A deal with the Greens would likely require a wide range of policy changes, considering the broad Greens agenda and the presence of a number of Greens in the Senate. The ALP would also be reluctant to give influence to a Greens MP in a seat that he had won off the ALP, preferring to work with independents who compete with Nationals in regional areas.
A single Greens MP could only ensure a working majority in the case of a 75-71 split. In those circumstances, there wouldn’t be a possible path for the party on 71 seats to form a government.
If there was a 74-72 split, it would also be extremely difficult for the smaller party to form a government, as this would require the support of all three independents and the Greens.
Only in the case of an even 73-73 split could we see the three independents with much of a choice in terms of who they support. When you look at it from that perspective, it is a very small target to hit at this year’s election.
Of course, it is possible we could see a hung parliament with independents deciding who forms government. But it is much more likely that a majority government will be formed, and it could be with a relatively solid majority.
